ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 8, 2013

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11072013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 8, 2013

BULLS SMILE BRINGING A HEARTY SALUTE TO VETERANS DAY

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The major indexes all closed on a bullish note today rebounding 1%+ as the weekly chart above shows.  Stocks were higher on the week, led by the increase in basic materials stocks.  Equity ETF funds saw substantial outflows last week as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs.

In corporate news, Twitter and BlackBerry represented two extremes. Twitter’s much anticipated IPO was a soaring success. Not only was it 100% glitch-free, which was a major focus after Facebook’s IPO faced technical problems last year, but more important, the social media firm’s shares soared, rising 73% from the initial price of $26 per share.

Although Twitter still hasn’t turned a profit, millions of investors are betting on its potential.

In contrast, BlackBerry’s executives’ faces turned red, as the once-dominant Smartphone maker continued to stumble, unable to attract financing for a planned $4.7 billion sale

The U.S. economy added 204,000 jobs in October, much more than the 125,000 expected. However, the unemployment rate rose to 7.3% in October from 7.2% in September.

While market volatility could certainly resurface at any time, it’s interesting to note that years with returns over 20% during the first 10 months continued that strong performance through the end of the year, historically recording a return of about 6% the last two months.

Let’s look at the ETFs in the spotlight:

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/07/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, November 7, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.77% after briefly dipping below it late in June 2013.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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Markets Turn Red, But Twitter Stays Ahead

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Markets tumbled the most in a month as soft consumer spending growth in the third-quarter raised questions about the overall strength of the economic recovery. The BetaPro MSCI Emerging Markets Bull+ & Bear+ ETF shares are currently trading down about 3.3% on the day. Overshadowing disappointing headlines was Twitter’s more than 70% rise on the day of its initial public offering. Turn that frown upside down Facebook!

Stocks were gaining in pre-market trading as the European Central Bank slashed its benchmark interest rate to stimulate growth in the region. The bank lowered borrowing costs to a record low of 0.25% as policymakers continue fight deflation and weak growth rates across the Eurozone.

Keep a look out for some expected market moving events coming up next week.  France is the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, and the fifth-largest in the world. With 10% unemployment and an expected 0.5% growth rate, this Sunday’s French presidential election could have major consequences for the Eurozone.

Let’s review the ETFs in the spotlight:

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Index ETFs Maintain Upward Bias

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

European equities headed higher supported by strong readings on factories and hopes that the ECB may take additional easing steps. That proved to be a springboard for the domestic indexes which, after an early rally, pulled back and then slowly inched their way higher with the DIA reaching a closing high.

Again, it seems the path of least resistance is up if there is no specific news to the contrary. Leading the ETF pack were utilities (XLU), which gained over 1.36% followed by consumer staples (XLP) with a strong 1.08%.

Analysts in general consider the current environment bullish for equities due to a positive third quarter earnings season, along with positive investor sentiment caused by the assumption of the Fed holding off on tapering until March. Nevertheless, it pays to be cautious, especially in view of the widespread complacency in the market place.

Let’s review the new ETF section below:

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 11/5/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The month of October closed on a slight down note as the markets had to digest the highs the major indexes were making. We have been bouncing against a glass ceiling, as far as the S&P 500 is concerned, as the index slipped by some 0.5% since last week’s ETF model portfolio report.

Bond ETFs have been making a comeback, but the rebound has not been strong enough to push them out of bear market territory and above their long term trend lines. With the ever present Fed “taper” looming on the horizon, the direction of interest rates is at best questionable.

Domestic equities remain the place to be as the major indexes have been holding up very well during the fear months (September/October) against all predictions to the contrary. If you think this relentless equity march higher is ridiculous, you are not alone. However, a trend is a trend, and it needs to be followed until it ends.

In the meantime, here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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Bonds Drop As Index Leaders Play Musical Chairs

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Emerging-market stocks dropped to a one-month low, led by Turkish equities, on concern that a slower expansion in the euro area will crimp global growth. While Bond ETFs have risen from the dead, they still are hovering below their long-term trend lines and are not in a buy mode at this time. However, the consensus seems to be that the Fed’s taper decision has been put off until 2014, whih may have opened the door for potential asset flows back into fixed income.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and PowerShares QQQ have continued to push to new highs and remain in healthy uptrends.

Right now we are seeing small rotations in index leadership, which may be a sign of institutional investors starting to jockey for position before the end of the year. What I think we will see through the remaining two months of 2013 is a push/pull between the latecomers who are chasing performance and the early adopters who are looking to lock in gains on their positions.

Let’s review the new ETF section below:

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