ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 8/9/2013

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 302 (last week 301) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 56 ETFs (last week 58) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 790 (last week 664) above the line and 69 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

One Man’s Opinion: Will The Chinese Economy Send Shock Waves In Future?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431Latest data from China showed CPI had been broadly stable, while industrial production data held its ground and came in stronger than most economists had forecast, suggesting there’s still quite some momentum left in the Chinese economy, said Julian Callow, chief international economist at Barclays Plc.

Industrial production was up 9.7 percent year-over-year in July, which is rather encouraging and indicates China will be able to grow at a rate of over seven percent. Latest investment data shows a lot of strength coming through in the infrastructure sector, up just below 25 percent year-on-year in July, which is a paradox since growth has been so dependent on borrowing and debt. There has been such an imbalance on the investment side in the economy and yet the country continues to print relatively encouraging numbers, he noted.

Asked if the latest string of data, which has been quiet encouraging, indicates the economy has stabilized, Julian said the economy may witness some disappointments down the road, though there may not be strong headwinds. If the Chinese economy is compared with advanced economies before the crisis hit in 2008, there are striking similarities.

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New ETFs On The Block: First Trust Morningstar Managed Futures Strategy ETF (FMF)

Ulli Commodity ETFs Contact

71030972First Trust, the Wheaton, Illinois-based issuer of exchange traded funds known for its niche offering, has launched a novel product that targets the managed futures market, giving retail investors access to a niche that was hitherto the domain of hedge funds, high net-worth individuals and institutional investors.

The First Trust Morningstar Managed Futures Strategy ETF (FMF) gives investors access to managed futures strategy and is actively managed to provide investors total returns that exceeds the performance of the Morningstar Diversified Futures Index, the fund’s underlying benchmark.

The benchmark seeks to reflect the trends in the equity, commodity or currency futures markets and is fully collateralized which includes exchange-traded and highly liquid contracts in the above mentioned asset classes. FMF should attract investors who are seeking exposure in alternative assets that could potentially add to their investments irrespective of market conditions. However, given its low volatility and uncorrelated investment strategy, the fund is less likely to provide oversized returns, particularly in bull market conditions.

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08-09-2013

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 9, 2013

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etf-newsletter-through-08082013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 9, 2013

MARKETS TURN SOUTH FOR THE FOURTH TIME TO CLOSE THE WEEK

U.S. equity markets closed the day lower as domestic data remained light and the lingering Fed taper uncertainty hamstrung equities, despite some upbeat Chinese economic data. Investors pulled almost $1.20 billion from U.S. equity exchange-traded funds over the past four days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from about 1,500 funds.

About $32 billion of deposits went into the funds in July, the most since September 2008, the data show. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 73 points lower (0.5%) at 15,426, the S&P 500 Index dropped 6 points (0.4%) to 1,691, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 9 points (0.2%) to 3,660.

Domestic economic data was limited to wholesale inventories which s fell 0.2% in June, contrary to expectations for a 0.5% gain. The decline was the third in row, resulting in 1.7% annualized drop in Q2. This suggests the inventory investment contribution to GDP would likely be revised lower, as wholesale inventories account for about 1/3 of total inventories. Shortly after opening in the red, the S&P index briefly turned positive, but just like yesterday, it was unable to make a sustained move above the 1,700 level.

One positive news came out of China as its industrial production rose more than expected, with growth accelerating from June, while fixed asset investment and new yuan loans both came in north of economists’ expectations. Elsewhere, the nation’s consumer and producer prices came in slightly cooler than forecasted, while retail sales rose by a smaller amount than anticipated and aggregate financing missed expectations.

Nine of ten sectors ended in the red while materials outperformed with a gain of 0.6% thanks to China’s data. The materials sector was the only group that registered a gain this week, rising 0.8%.

Wall Street posted its worst week since June with Fed weighing heavily. For the week, the Dow fell 1.5 percent, snapping a six-week string of gains. The S&P 500 dropped 1.1 percent and the Nasdaq slid 0.8 percent. Just a week ago, both the Dow and the S&P 500 ended at record closing highs.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped as well and closed the week as follows:

Domestic TTI: +3.30% (last week +3.90%)

International TTI: +6.85% (last week +7.45%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Rash:

Q: Ulli: I find it very surprising that while the bond portfolio has not done very well in the face of interest rate headwinds, the conservative and income portfolios have done so much better than the rest.

Is this because of following buy/sell/hold signals or choice of ETFs or something else? I would have thought the equity heavy portfolios would have done better and the bond portfolios worse in general, but while the bond portfolio is the worst, performance of the rest has left me confused. Appreciate any explanation.

A: Rash: We have been in a declining interest rate environment for many years that it seems unusual for rates to go up and bond portfolios to head south. However, such is one of the unintended consequences of manipulating the financial markets as the Fed has done.

The Fed’s goal has been to create the so called wealth effect, which in theory gets people to spend more money therefore contributing to economic growth. The tool of choice for accomplishing that has been the stock market and, via the various QE programs of the past few years, the indexes have been consistently pushed to new highs. As I have posted before, there has been a total disconnect between the stock market levels and the underlying economy, which eventually will have to re-adjust itself, in my view, via a market correction.

As a result, standard portfolio allocations have been skewed and the simple holding of one or more equity index funds, as described in my new e-book, using the Trend Tracking/Sell Stop approach would have increased performance dramatically.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 9, 2013

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etf-newsletter-through-08082013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 9, 2013

MARKETS TURN SOUTH FOR THE FOURTH TIME TO CLOSE THE WEEK

U.S. equity markets closed the day lower as domestic data remained light and the lingering Fed taper uncertainty hamstrung equities, despite some upbeat Chinese economic data. Investors pulled almost $1.20 billion from U.S. equity exchange-traded funds over the past four days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from about 1,500 funds.

About $32 billion of deposits went into the funds in July, the most since September 2008, the data show. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 73 points lower (0.5%) at 15,426, the S&P 500 Index dropped 6 points (0.4%) to 1,691, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 9 points (0.2%) to 3,660.

Domestic economic data was limited to wholesale inventories which s fell 0.2% in June, contrary to expectations for a 0.5% gain. The decline was the third in row, resulting in 1.7% annualized drop in Q2. This suggests the inventory investment contribution to GDP would likely be revised lower, as wholesale inventories account for about 1/3 of total inventories. Shortly after opening in the red, the S&P index briefly turned positive, but just like yesterday, it was unable to make a sustained move above the 1,700 level.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Newsletter – Through 08/08/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, August 8, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The Domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.64% after briefly dipping below it late in June.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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