ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, February 21, 2014

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/02/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-02202014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, February 21, 2014

WEEK IN REVIEW

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Friday ended the week on a bit of a sour note given that markets had performed relatively well for the last few days. Today, Priceline (PCLN) gained 2.5% and Intuit (INTU) was up 4.6% after beating earnings estimates. Amazon.com (AMZN) was slightly lower after reports it will list brands such as Ralph Lauren.

A lot of investor news this week seemed to center on the major M&A deals that were announced. Last week, Comcast (CMCSA) said it’s acquiring Time Warner Cable (TWC). Later we heard that Apple’s (AAPL) M&A people were talking with Tesla (TSLA). Then came the blockbuster deal: Facebook (FB) is buying WhatsApp for $16.4 billion.

Perhaps the most disturbing of these deals is the Time Warner-Comcast deal. Many are worried that this may be too large a consolidation of entities that play a major role in not only how we view content, but also what content we view.

International stocks were higher after the prior day’s slump as the Bank of Japan’s January meeting minutes indicated that its aggressive stimulus could persist for more than the market’s expectation of two years. The USD fell against the euro on Friday after weak US housing data stoked concerns about the American economy, but notched its first week of broad gains against a basket of major currencies in three weeks.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight held steady and 3 of them have now turned positive for the year.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/20/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, February 20, 2014

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.64%.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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U.S. Manufacturing Keeps Growing; Tesla Continues To Zoom

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Overall, domestic and global markets performed well today. Here in the U.S., the S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, the Dow gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.5%. A survey (from Markit) came in today that showed U.S. manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in almost four years, which boosted investor confidence in the U.S. economy. The results from the U.S. survey contrasted with a survey of manufacturing in China, where manufacturing contracted for a second straight month in February. The contraction of manufacturing growth in China that was reported today also seemed to have an impact on oil prices, as prices fell to below $103 a barrel not long after the news. Oil prices did not drop too much though, because of the uncertainty that remains about protests in Venezuela, as well as export disruptions in Libya and South Sudan.

Tesla Motors jumped again today, 8.3% in fact, after the electric car maker delivered a strong fourth-quarter performance late Wednesday and said it expects the company’s vehicle sales to rise sharply this year. This stock has really been ‘zooming’ upwards over the past few months. It is up 30% YTD and up nearly 60% for the past 3 months despite valuation concerns that have been floating around recently.

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) fell in late trading after forecasting first-quarter profit that trailed analysts’ estimates on higher expenses for acquisitions and marketing. Online retailers generally struggled at the end of 2013. Amazon.com Inc.’s (AMZN) profit and sales trailed analyst estimates on a slowdown outside the U.S. and a surge in holiday shopping costs. EBay Inc.’s (EBAY) sales fell short of analyst estimates, and the company said in January that investor Carl Icahn had proposed splitting off its PayPal online-payments unit.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained with the indexes, and 3 of them are in the green for the year.

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Not A ‘Fed Minute’ Too Soon

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The ‘Fed Minutes’ were perhaps the biggest headline and market mover today. Recent economic data has been disappointing, particularly in the job and housing markets, which has raised questions about the Fed’s future tapering plans. Some of the sluggishness appears to be due to the snowy weather across the country, but despite a weak December jobs report, the Fed’s 10 voting members unanimously decided to reduce the central bank’s bond-buying program to $65 billion in February, down from $75 billion in January. Fed officials said that as long the economic outlook doesn’t change, the Fed will likely reduce its purchases by $10 billion at each meeting. Markets moved accordingly in negative fashion.

Although the broader market was down, some prominent stocks moved higher including Zales (ZLC) which surged about 40% after Signet Jewelers (SIG) unveiled a deal to acquire the Dallas-based jewelry retailer for $21 a share. Tesla (TSLA) said it sold a record number of its Model S sedans in the Q4 2013, and that it expects to deliver even more this year. The company’s shares gained in accordance after the closing bell.

The dollar rose following the release of the minutes from the Fed; gold prices fell for a second straight day and the CBOE Volatility index, often referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose 11.75 percent. The emerging markets focus remained on rising unrest in both Ukraine and Thailand. Ukraine’s sovereign bonds and currency both tumbled as a renewed wave of violence hit the capital Kiev, adding pressure on Russia’s rouble, which hit an all-time low against the euro.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped a bit with the indexes, but 3 of them still remain in the green for the year.

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Nasdaq Is Streaking Again; Cold Weather Still Drawing Bulls To Gas And Oil

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Stocks edged a bit higher today. The Dow lagged the other leading indexes, weighed down by Coca-Cola (KO) after reporting weak Q4 results; the Nasdaq, however, rose to 13-year highs amid an eighth straight session gain, which it has not experienced since July 2013.

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) hit an all-time high following a report Apple’s M&A chief met Tesla CEO Elon Musk last year, sparking speculation Apple (AAPL) could be interested in buying the electric car maker. Forest Laboratories (FRX) was the biggest gainer on the S&P 500 after Actavis (ACT) said it would acquire the specialty pharmaceuticals company in a cash and stock deal valued at about $25 billion.

As the bitter winter cold continues to bear down on the east coast of the U.S., natural gas and crude oil futures are performing accordingly. A new winter storm named Rex has moved through the U.S. Midwest and on Tuesday was hitting the Northeast, bringing strong winds and fresh snow, according to the latest forecast by the Weather Channel. Crude oil and natural gas futures settled higher today with crude oil for March delivery (CLH4) rising 2.1% and natural gas for March delivery (NGH14) gaining 6.5%.

Global markets also edged higher today following a fresh round of stimulus from the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan maintained its expansionary monetary policy by extending special loan programs to help support economic growth. All-in-all it was a good day for the markets, and I look forward to seeing what tomorrow brings.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight inched higher, with XLV sprinting, and 3 of them are now in the green for the year.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 02/14/2014

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 357 (last week 318) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 70 ETFs (last week 53) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 692 (last week 603) above the line and 157 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

Please note that Mutual fund prices have not been adjusted for yearend distributions.