ANNOUNCING New Format New Daily Market Commentary PLUS New Selection Of ETFs In The Spotlight

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

My latest e-book “How to beat the S&P 500…with the S&P 500” has been downloaded literally thousands of times over the past few months. In case you missed it, you can get your free copy here.

This popularity has prompted many questions, especially “which ETFs are most suitable using the Trend Tracking approach as described in the book?”

The answer, according to our back tests, is that slower trending ETFs tend to have better results over the long term due to their reduced volatility. That cuts down on the number of whipsaw signals; those necessary components that help us avoid or minimize participating in the big market drops.

One way I measure ETFs and their volatility is via Maximum DrawDown (MaxDD%) during a given period. Here’s how it’s defined in my Glossary of terms:

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New ETFs On The Block: Proshares S&P 500 Aristocrats ETF (NOBL)

Ulli Dividend ETFs Contact

71030972ProShares, the nation’s biggest provider of alternative exchange-traded funds with a lineup of more than 140 products, has launched a new ETF providing exposure to the biggest dividend-paying components of the S&P 500 index.

The NYSE Arca-listed ProShares S&P 500 Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) is the third offering in the unleveraged funds space by the Bethesda, MD-based sponsor, and marks the firm’s second launch in the unlevered equity universe. NOBL tracks the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index – a benchmark made of stocks from the S&P 500, reflecting both dividend income and capital growth characteristics.

The index aims to measure the performance of large-cap, blue-chip stocks in the S&P 500 Index and targets companies that have increased dividend payments each year for at least 25 years, subject to fulfillment of certain market capitalization and liquidity requirements.

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11-01-2013

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 1, 2013

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/10/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-10312013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 1, 2013

EKING OUT ANOTHER GAIN

It seems like nothing can keep this market down, at least not for very long as the major indexes recovered after two days of heading south. Despite improving economic data, it’s anyone’s guess if that could convince the Fed to taper its stimulus program. Personally, I don’t think we are anywhere near the point where the economy can grow strong enough organically for the Fed to take the foot off the pedal.

The major market indexes edged higher with the S&P 500 gaining 2 points over the past five trading days. With the benchmark index having added some 4.5% in October, a pause is certainly in order as we have gotten somewhat overbought.

368 of the S&P’s 500 companies have presented their scorecard for the 3rd quarter, of which 75% exceeded analysts’ profit predictions while 53% scored higher on sales than estimated.

Nevertheless, fears remain that improved manufacturing data could cause the Fed to invoke tapering sooner rather than later. This will continue to be of regular concern depending on the interpretation of the latest data points. Median estimates are now for the Fed to begin its slowdown either in December or in March.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) pulled back and closed as follows:

Domestic TTI: +4.33% (last week +5.01%)

International TTI: +7.37% (last week +8.45%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Joel:

Q: Ulli: In your latest e-book, and during various posts throughout the year, you mentioned that certain Index ETFs, like the ones of the low volatility variety, are better suited for the use with trend tracking.

Is there any way to get a list of these?

A: Joel: Actually, I am in the process of revamping the daily commentary to include exactly 10 of these, which are most suitable. They are selected by my MaxDD% indicator, which I will comment on in more detail.

The scheduled change along with these new “ETFs in the Spotlight” will be effective as of 11/4/13 with an announcement being mailed to all readers on the prior day. Look for it.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 1, 2013

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/10/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-10312013/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, November 1, 2013

EKING OUT ANOTHER GAIN

It seems like nothing can keep this market down, at least not for very long as the major indexes recovered after two days of heading south. Despite improving economic data, it’s anyone’s guess if that could convince the Fed to taper its stimulus program. Personally, I don’t think we are anywhere near the point where the economy can grow strong enough organically for the Fed to take the foot off the pedal.

The major market indexes edged higher with the S&P 500 gaining 2 points over the past five trading days. With the benchmark index having added some 4.5% in October, a pause is certainly in order as we have gotten somewhat overbought.

368 of the S&P’s 500 companies have presented their scorecard for the 3rd quarter, of which 75% exceeded analysts’ profit predictions while 53% scored higher on sales than estimated.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/31/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, October 31, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +4.69% after briefly dipping below it late in June 2013.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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Ending October On A Down Note

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Domestic Equity Index ETFs finished a choppy trading session below the flat-line, as investors mulled a mixed bag of earnings and economic data along with yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to maintain its current pace of asset purchases.

While it was a second consecutive day of losses for the market, all three major indexes ended October with solid gains. Elsewhere, Treasuries were mixed following yesterday’s Fed decision and as a slightly higher-than-expected rate of weekly U.S. initial jobless claims was met with an unexpected jump in Midwest manufacturing activity. Finally, gold and crude oil prices dipped, while the U.S. dollar appreciated.

Stock indices spent most of the session near their respective flat lines. Trading volume was subdued until the last 30 minutes of action when a surge in trading activity sent equities to lows while pushing the final volume tally up. In earnings news, Dow member Visa posted inline quarterly results but offered some cautious commentary, and Starbucks beat the Street’s profit expectations, while issuing disappointing guidance. Moreover, Dow component Exxon Mobil Corp bested the Street’s estimates.

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