Major Indexes In Detour Mode; TTIs Remain On The Bullish Side

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Nothing goes up forever, so the inevitable was bound to happen sooner or later. The last day of the month was as good as any for the S&P 500 to not only post its worst loss since April but also its first monthly decline since January. The other major indexes pulled back as well, as the chart above shows.

The culprits were several with the first one being the largest rise in labor costs in 5-1/2 years sparking concerns that the Fed might push interest rates higher much sooner than expected despite recent jawboning to the opposite. As a result, all 10 S&P sectors fell with energy leading downward momentum.

While the S&P and Nasdaq remain on the plus side of the ledger YTD, the Dow has slipped into negative territory. More potential weakness ahead was signaled by the S&P dropping below its 50-day moving average.

International news did not help matters as Argentina defaulted on its debt, while Russia banned soy imports from the Ukraine and may restrict Greek fruit and U.S. poultry as part of its ongoing tit-for-tat battle.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped with the indexes, 2 dropped below their respective long-term trend lines and one went negative year to day. For more details, please see the tables below.

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GDP Numbers Bode Well For Economic Outlook

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Well, the GDP numbers came in today and it was all good news. Prior to the opening bell, the government reported that the economy grew at a robust 4% annual pace in the April-June period, which smashed economists’ estimates of 3% growth. This was a sharp rebound from a 2.1% contraction in the ‘snowy’ first quarter. Stocks initially rallied but the gains quickly faded. The S&P 500 eeked out a 0.01% gain, the Dow lost 0.19%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.46% on hearty Twitter earnings.

Twitter (TWTR) gained more than 20% after reporting strong user growth and earnings that bested Wall Street estimates.

News just came in that Yelp (YELP) jumped up 8.81% in after-hours trading when it reported a Q2 profit of $2.7 million. Wall Street had forecasted the company would report a loss. Another big winner today was Allstate (ALL), which reported an impressive Q2 profit of $645 million, up from $434 million a year ago. The stock gained 2%.

Let’s stay tuned for more corporate earnings announcements to come this week!

Of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight, 4 gained on the the day and one new high was made.

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Pesky International Conflicts Push Markets Lower

Ulli Market Review Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks trended lower throughout the morning, but losses accelerated late in the day and the major indexes closed lower. Investors seemed to be torn between a batch of mostly positive earnings reports and rising global tensions. The S&P 500 ended below its 14-day moving average for a second straight day, and 9 of the 10 primary S&P 500 sectors fell on the day.

Although markets have dropped over the past two days, lackluster corporate earnings cannot be blamed. Almost 70% of companies reporting have topped earnings expectations, which is well above the 63% average.

The main culprit for foul market sentiment today seemed to be the Ukraine/Russia turmoil. President Barack Obama said the U.S. was imposing new sanctions on Russia in the energy, arms and finance sectors, as a reaction to Moscow’s support for rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Alongside the international conflicts, investors seem to be awaiting the GDP numbers that the Fed will release tomorrow. If the numbers come in favorably, then perhaps we may see some better index performance to close out the day.

In a reversal from yesterday, 9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped today while 1 gained. No new highs were made.

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Stocks Relatively Flat On Monday; M&A News Takes Majority Of Headlines

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks dropped early on, but were able to cut losses and end mostly positive by the end of the day. The Dow gained 0.1%, the S&P 500 index rose a fractional 0.03%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.1% on the day. Most of the headlines today centered on M&A deals.

The dollar store titans were back in M&A news today. Shares of both Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Family Dollar (FDO) rose after Dollar Tree announced it is buying its rival for $8.5 billion. Family Dollar surged 24.9% to end the day at $75.74 and Dollar Tree ended up 1.2% to $54.87. It seems the dollar deal market is still in full swing and that market demand remains high.

Also, we heard today that real estate website Zillow (Z) said it is buying Trulia (TRLA) for $3.5 billion in stock. Trulia shot up 15.4% to $65.04 and Zillow gained 0.9% to $160.32.

Upcoming in economic news this week, the government will release its first estimate of second-quarter GDP product on Wednesday and the July employment report on Friday.

Of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight 1 slipped today and 9 gained. No new highs were made.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/25/2014

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 362 (last week 364) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 86 ETFs (last week 84) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 742 (last week 751) above the line and 108 below it out of the 850 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Are Europe, Asia And Emerging Market Equity Prices Relatively Cheap?

Ulli Market Review Contact

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Economic or earnings growth has mostly remained insulated from the ongoing global unrest and as such, should have little significance for the global economy, according to Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc.

There are a number of reasons why investors chose to ignore geopolitical risks. First, central bank policies kept volatilities really low. Second, people have been conditioned to buy the dip. The third and the most important point, however, is that there has been no direct link between some of the events in Middle East and the economic/earnings environment. However, the catch is, that may change depending upon what happens in the Middle East because that could push up oil prices, he noted.

In a recent research note, Ross observed that this is the right time to buy volatility because nobody is paying attention to it and it is one of the last few cheap asset classes. Asked to explain, Russ said volatility is likely to pick up if there is a shock arising out of a spike in oil prices. But the biggest risk, however, remains the central bank policy.

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