ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For May 16, 2014

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/05/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-05152014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, May 16, 2014

GOING NOWHERE

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

This was the week in which the S&P 500 attempted to break through its psychologically important 1,900 milestone marker. We came close on Monday and Tuesday before the bears gained the upper hand on Thursday, as the above 5-day chart shows. Today’s modest rebound, for which we may thank the ever lurking buy-the-dip crowd, left the benchmark index unchanged for the past five trading days.

We’ve seen this before, as sell-off attempts were taken as opportunities for buyers to step in and reverse what appeared to be the start of a downtrend. Fueling this pattern has been a generally positive market outlook.

On the economic front, construction on new US homes surged last month topping economists’ forecasts indicating that the rebound from a tough winter may still have some legs. On the negative side, consumer sentiment fell unexpectedly in April leaving bulls and bears stuck in a tug-of-war.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight followed the roller coaster ride; no new highs were made today and 8 of them remain on the plus side YTD.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/15/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, May 15, 2014

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +2.11%.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the red line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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A Mixed Bag Of Data Whacks The Bulls

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

It was a one-two punch based on disappointing earnings and a mixed bag of data that sent the bulls to the mat, at least for the time being. All major indexes lost as the intra-day chart above shows.

Despite the manufacturing index coming in better than expected and a reduced number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits, industrial production dropped last month, even though a rise was expected, which took the starch out of any upside momentum.

The CPI and PPI numbers provided a mixed picture and ended up not helping any bullish cause. Adding downside pressure were poor economic data coming out of Europe; it was so weak that even the conservative German Bundesbank indicated that is looking to support monetary stimulus as growth seems to have stalled.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight retreated; one slipped below its long-term trend line, but 8 of them are remaining on the plus side YTD.

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Bouncing Off The Glass Ceiling

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Clearly, the markets were taking a breather today, after the S&P’s attempt to pierce the 1,900 level, not just on an intra-day basis, did not materialize. While the benchmark had been trending sideways for this month, let’s not forget that it has been on a 4.5% rebound spree since its low on April 11.

Yesterday’s retails sales report showing a meager climb of 0.1% last month confirming what we have observed in our spotlight ETFs for some time; namely that consumer discretionaries (XLY) have been lagging the market all year and are not the place to be invested in.

Small-Caps have taken the brunt of the pullback with the Russell 2000 falling some 2.7% over the past 2 days, after having come off its March high by 8.7%, and also dropping below its widely followed 200-day moving average. It’s too early to tell if this is a harbinger of things to come, kind of like the proverbial canary in the coalmine. This where the long-term trends, along with trend line breaks, will be extremely helpful and eliminate the guessing game as to future market direction.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight pulled back; no new highs were made, but 9 of them are remaining on the plus side YTD.

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Markets Continue Up, Except For Our Good Friend The Nasdaq; A Glance At Gold

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The S&P 500 and the Dow both edged to new highs again today, while the Nasdaq resumed its oh too familiar slide. Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), which is set to report its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, was the biggest drag on the Nasdaq. The stock slid 1.4%.

It was a big day for coffee machine innovator Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR). The stock ended up 7.6% to $119.07 per share after Coca-Cola (KO), just three months after buying a 10% stake in Keurig, announced it increased its stake to 16%. Coke is now the largest shareholder in Keurig.

We saw a bit of disappointing economic news today. Retail sales grew only 0.1% in April, which disappointed forecasters, who expected more of an early spring pick-up. Economists’ had forecast a 0.5% gain.

It has been a while since we discussed gold here in our moving the markets segment, so let’s revisit. In short, gold has been hammered since its peak of $1,895 per ounce in September 2011. Today it’s down to $1,293 and experts say the meltdown could continue until gold hits $800 or less. Investors normally turn to gold when the world feels more dangerous. But despite recent troubles in the Ukraine, gold has continued to fall from a price of $1,385 in March. Just today, UBS lowered its one-month forecast to $1,250 from $1,280 an ounce and adjusted its three-month forecast from to $1,300 from $1,350 an ounce.

4 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight made new highs today while 9 of them remain on the plus side YTD.

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Markets Swing Back Into Positive Territory On Fruitful Monday

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The stock market returned to record levels today as investors regained their appetite for riskier stocks.  All major indexes gained, as the intra day chart above shows. Internet stocks, which have taken quite a beating over the past month, pulled a turnaround, with Twitter (TWTR) and Facebook (FB) at  the top of the list of Nasdaq leaders.

Stocks also got a boost from some M&A news today. Pinnacle Foods Inc. (PF) shares jumped 13.2% today after we heard the announcement that they will be acquired by Hillshire Brands (HSH), a major retailer of meat and frozen bakery goods. Also, Pfizer (PFE) shares rose slightly after the company published a letter to a parliamentary committee in the United Kingdom arguing its case for its proposed $106 billion acquisition of AstraZeneca (AZN).

It was a good day in the international realm as well. European shares edged higher: London’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC all gained on the day. China’s Shanghai Composite jumped 2.1%, however the Nikkei in Tokyo dropped 0.35%. Investors continue to keep a close eye on geopolitical developments in the Ukraine, but they seemed to shrug off Sunday’s vote in a region of eastern Ukraine that showed an overwhelming majority in favor of independence.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight had a good as well with 4 of them making new highs while 9 of them are on the plus side YTD.

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