One Man’s Opinion: Are Wages Stuck Because Of Slack In The Labor Market?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431The latest jobs report showed US labor force participation rate rose to 59.2 percent in October, the highest since July 2009. Yet the US economy needs to add another 5 million jobs to really reach the pre-recession employment levels, said Edward Lazear, a professor of economics at the Stanford University.

The population has grown significantly since before the recession and the easiest way to explain this phenomenon is to see the pre-recession numbers; 63.5 percent of working age population had jobs before the Great Recession. The employment-to-population ratio, i.e. number of people employed relative to the working age population, went up to 59.2 percent from 59 percent, which is way below the pre-recession level.

The US unemployment rate at the peak of economic activity was actually at 4.4 percent. So even if one considers the unemployment rate, which is not a very good indicator of the labor market, the economy is still a far-cry from where it should be. In order to keep up with the population growth, the economy needs to add about 120,000 jobs a month. Right now, the average is about 220,000 a month, which means the economy is gaining about a 100,000 jobs every month, and it should take about four years to reach where it was before he noted.

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New ETFs On The Block: Proshares Managed Futures Strategy ETF (FUTS)

Ulli Coomodity ETFs Contact

104004054ProShares, the Maryland-based exchange-traded fund issuer known for its range of inverse and leveraged exchange-traded funds, expanded its offering of alternative investment products recently with the launch of the ProShares Managed Futures Strategy (FUTS).

Managed futures investment strategy involves investing in futures contracts across asset classes such as commodities, currencies and fixed income instruments. Investing in future contracts is a widely followed hedging strategy because it helps mitigate portfolio risks in a way that is not possible in traditional spot markets.  Because of the negative correlation between cash and futures contracts, introduction of futures in a portfolio reduces volatility significantly.

FUTS tracks the S&P Strategic Futures Index, a rules-based benchmark that uses a risk parity weighting methodology. The index is composed of 24 risk-weighted futures contracts in 16 different commodity-futures and eight financial-futures contracts. The index takes long or short positions in futures after comparing current prices of each future contract with a seven-month exponential average.

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11-07-2014

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For November 7, 2014

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11062014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 7, 2014

STOCKS INCH OUT GAINS AND FINISH THE WEEK ON SOLID GROUND

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks inched higher again today to close out the week at record highs, continuing their rebound from the mid-October pullback. Solid employment figures supported the improving economic outlook, while largely positive corporate earnings announcements and further commentary on potential monetary policy stimulus in Europe also contributed to the week’s gain.

Wall Street sentiment got a bullish swing earlier this week after the Republican Party took over the Senate. As I mentioned in yesterday’s piece, historically markets have performed very well during periods when the GOP controls the senate. Also pushing markets a bit higher today was the news that the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.8%, however, the number of newly created jobs did miss expectations.

There is not much anticipation of major market moving events in the upcoming week. Q3 earnings season is winding down, and the results have been encouraging for the most part. Of the 90% of companies in the S&P that have reported, 75% beat expectations.

8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to close up while 6 of them made new highs as the YTD table below shows.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) improved during this week with the Domestic one settling deeper on the bullish side while the International one is attempting to move out of its bear market position:

Here’s how we ended the week:

Domestic TTI: +3.09% (last Friday +2.93%)—Buy signal since 10/22/2014

International TTI: -0.30% (last Friday -0.39%)—Sell signal since 10/1/2014

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

Reader John:

Q: Ulli: I have been reading your newsletter and find the information valuable and informative.  Your approach to stop loss orders is interesting.  Have you back tested this approach?

My real question is what to do when you are between a buy and a TBD sell point when you have new money to put in the market?  Do you have some guidelines on the equity – fixed income split?

A: John: I have done some back testing but most has been real life experience. Whenever you have new money to deploy, your risk tolerance should be your guide. I talk about that in a short video, which you can watch at:

http://www.youtube.com/user/theetfbully

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For November 7, 2014

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11062014/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 7, 2014

STOCKS INCH OUT GAINS AND FINISH THE WEEK ON SOLID GROUND

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks inched higher again today to close out the week at record highs, continuing their rebound from the mid-October pullback. Solid employment figures supported the improving economic outlook, while largely positive corporate earnings announcements and further commentary on potential monetary policy stimulus in Europe also contributed to the week’s gain.

Wall Street sentiment got a bullish swing earlier this week after the Republican Party took over the Senate. As I mentioned in yesterday’s piece, historically markets have performed very well during periods when the GOP controls the senate. Also pushing markets a bit higher today was the news that the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.8%, however, the number of newly created jobs did miss expectations.

There is not much anticipation of major market moving events in the upcoming week. Q3 earnings season is winding down, and the results have been encouraging for the most part. Of the 90% of companies in the S&P that have reported, 75% beat expectations.

8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to close up while 6 of them made new highs as the YTD table below shows.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/06/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, November 6, 2014

TOC

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +3.05% keeping us in the market with newly established positions.

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Markets Continue To Climb On ECB Stimulus

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The S&P 500 and the Dow rose to new record highs today, again. At the close, the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were all up 0.4%. One of the major factors moving the markets higher today was that the ECB announced it is leaving interest rates unchanged and will continue to boost economic stimulus.

Europe benchmarks took huge, initial leaps of 3% or so on news of region-wide stimulus, but the gains eased considerably as the trading day wore on. The DAX of Germany ended 0.7% higher, the CAC 40 of France finished up 0.5% and Britain’s FTSE closed up 0.2%.

In local economic news, we received word today that U.S. workers’ productivity increased more rapidly than expected during Q3 as a solid jump in output offset a rise in hours worked. Labor productivity, or output per hours worked, rose at a 2% annual rate. Economists had expected a 1.1% increase.

It is only fitting to touch on precious metals, given the positive numbers we have seen on domestic growth of late. Gold and silver have been taking a beating in recent weeks. Gold spent much of 2014 trading around $1,250 an ounce. Now it trades below $1,145, which is its lowest level in over four years. Remember that Investors buy gold when they’re scared. Right now the U.S. economy continues to chug along, Ebola fears have faded, tensions with Russia have eased and Western countries believe they are containing ISIS.

8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained today with 6 of them making new highs for the year.

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