Stocks Plow Forward Heading Into The Holiday Season

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

All major indexes closed higher today, with the Dow and S&P 500 once again setting new highs as the chart above shows.

We saw a mixed bucket of economic data today. Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods rose in October, but a key category that tracks business investment plans declined sharply for a second straight month. At the same time, initial claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, but continue to hover below pre-recession levels. The unemployment rate in October fell to 5.8% from 5.9% in September. It was 7.2% a year earlier.

In tech, there was quite a bit of buzz about Pandora (P) today. Pandora shares are sliding after FBR Capital Markets downgraded Pandora stock and a number of analysts also lowered their price target, despite the company’s impressive third-quarter results from a month ago. FBR believes the company will suffer from possible rising content costs after the Copyright Royalty Board sets new performance royalty rates. Pandora Media has a one year low of $17.55 and a one year high of $40.44.

Markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and open for half a day on Friday. Look for continued focus on retail stocks, oil and fed updates on interest rates as we head into the holiday season.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained with 7 of them making new highs as the YTD table below shows.

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Stocks End Mixed Amidst Mixed Economic Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks dipped lower late in the trading day, as investors tried to balance falling consumer confidence against a better-than-expected report on economic growth. The S&P 500 dropped 0.12%, the Dow shed 0.02%, however the Nasdaq gained 0.07%. Crude oil prices also dropped 2.5% today to close at $74.30 a barrel.

Consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in November as the Conference Board’s closely watched index dropped to 88.7 from 94.1 in October. Overall, the economy has notched the best six months of growth since 2003, including a 4.6% annualized rate of expansion in the second quarter, following a first-quarter contraction caused largely by severe winter weather. Monthly job growth has picked up this year, and factory output and business investment have advanced, while consumer spending and the housing market have been mixed.

The major event this week is a meeting in Vienna on Thursday of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. As the price of oil continues to slump, traders will be looking for a possible agreement to cut production to increase demand, i.e. prices. The price of crude has tumbled 26% since June.

3 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight edged up during this see-saw day with all 3 of them making new highs while 2 of them remained unchanged, as the YTD table below shows.

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Another Day, Another Record High For The Dow And S&P 500

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks continued their climb upwards heading towards the Holiday season today. The S&P 500 gained 0.27%, the Dow was up 0.04% and the Nasdaq added 0.89%. The Dow and S&P both set new record highs today, which was the 29th time this year for the Dow and the 46th time for the S&P. Wall Street is hoping that the markets extend their 5-week winning streak in this shortened Holiday week.

We have been talking about Apple (AAPL) off and on over the past week, as investors have been speculating as to whether or not they will become the first ever $700 billion company. Well, shares of apple gained 1.85% today to close at 118.63, which pushed the market cap higher to $695.72 billion. How high can they go?

Interestingly enough, the timber market stole a couple of headlines today, but it seems that now timber is an investment more suitable for the wealthiest 1%. After seeing their portfolios pummeled during the recession, many wealthy people (according to Bloomberg) have flocked to asset classes that don’t rise and fall with the stock markets. Timber is a long-term play, and most investors see it as a tool to transfer wealth from one generation to another…or to simply cover everyday expenses by granting hunting licenses and selling off pine straw, which is commonly used in landscaping.

8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight inched up today with 7 of them making new highs as the YTD table below shows.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/21/2014

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 291 (last week 279) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 50 ETFs (last week 43) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 719 (last week 706) above the line and 127 below it out of the 846 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Do China, Japan And Europe Need To Undertake Structural Reforms To Realize True Potential?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431The People’s Bank of China (the Chinese central bank) cut interest and deposit rates to boost growth Friday. China has a political problem and Chinese leaders need economic growth to provide legitimacy for the communist party, said Jamie Metzl, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Beijing is trying to steer a little bit toward slower growth to rebalance and reform the economy. But every-time the economy faces headwind, Chinese leaders tend to panic a bit, as exemplified now. The rate cut is a plus in the short term but a worrying sign for the much needed reforms in the long term, he noted.

The PBOC said the rate cut is not a change in monetary policy, and the move is “within appropriate range.” Asked if the central bank’s language is nuanced or if it is missing the point, Jamie said the language is nuanced because the PBOC is injecting stimulus in the economy to avoid a slowdown and then saying it’s not getting off the reform-path.

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New ETFs On The Block: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Horizon ETF (EMHZ)

Ulli Emerging Markets ETFs Contact

122227577iShares, the world’s biggest the exchange-traded fund issuer, recently launched a new emerging market fund that focuses on the “beyond BRICS” theme and looks to tap the rapid growth in other emerging markets in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Middle East.

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Horizon ETF (EMHZ) provides exposure to companies that could well be the next generation of emerging market growth stars.

The passively-managed EMHZ tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Horizon Index, a gauge that considers the smallest quartile of countries from the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index. That makes the new fund a subset of the highly successful $36 billion iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM).

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