Stocks Plow Forward Heading Into The Holiday Season

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of]

1. Moving the Markets

All major indexes closed higher today, with the Dow and S&P 500 once again setting new highs as the chart above shows.

We saw a mixed bucket of economic data today. Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods rose in October, but a key category that tracks business investment plans declined sharply for a second straight month. At the same time, initial claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, but continue to hover below pre-recession levels. The unemployment rate in October fell to 5.8% from 5.9% in September. It was 7.2% a year earlier.

In tech, there was quite a bit of buzz about Pandora (P) today. Pandora shares are sliding after FBR Capital Markets downgraded Pandora stock and a number of analysts also lowered their price target, despite the company’s impressive third-quarter results from a month ago. FBR believes the company will suffer from possible rising content costs after the Copyright Royalty Board sets new performance royalty rates. Pandora Media has a one year low of $17.55 and a one year high of $40.44.

Markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and open for half a day on Friday. Look for continued focus on retail stocks, oil and fed updates on interest rates as we head into the holiday season.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained with 7 of them making new highs as the YTD table below shows.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:


The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:


Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) trended higher and moved deeper into bullish territory.

Here’s how we ended up:

Domestic TTI: +4.05% (last close +3.86%)—Buy signal since 10/22/2014

International TTI: +2.00% (last close +1.82%)—New Buy signal effective 11/24/14

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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