Markets Back On Track; Wal-Mart Impresses – Oil Continues To Slide

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks are back on track this Thursday after dropping slightly yesterday. The Dow was able to post another record high-water mark at the close of trading today, finishing up 0.23%. The S&P 500 gained 0.04% and the Nasdaq stood at an 0.10% gain at closing.

The gain in the Dow was largely attributed to Walmart posting better-than-expected earnings, however, plunging oil prices erased most of the index’s gains. As you know, oil prices have been dropping over the past two months, and today prices fell below $75 a barrel for the first time in four years. The benchmark U.S. crude oil index is down 31% since late June. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) took notable hits among energy stocks.

In M&A news, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) announced today that it will buy Duracell Batteries from Procter & Gamble (PG). This small transaction is valued at a mere $4.7 billion. We also heard today that Dreamworks Animation (DWA) is in talks to buy the toymaker Hasbro (HAS), though no tentative purchase price was mentioned. Dreamworks stock closed 14% higher on the day.

The Q3 earnings reporting season is not quite over yet, so let’s stay tuned to see how the numbers will look from a number of firms on Friday.

4 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained with 2 of them making new highs as the YTD table below shows.

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Markets Drop, Snapping A 6-Day Winning Streak

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks pulled back from record highs today, dragged down mostly by the financial sector after hearing today that six big banks were fined $4.3 billion in a settlement over foreign exchange manipulation charges. The S&P 500 and Dow both closed a tad lower, which snapped a 6-day streak of daily gains. The Nasdaq moved in the opposite direction today, gaining 0.3%.

Citibank (C), JPMorgan Chase Bank (JPM), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), HSBC Bank (HSBC) and UBS (UBS) are among the banks being fined. However, the investigation is not over apparently, as Barclays (BCS) is also anticipated to settle on a fine amount.

Retail stocks were back in focus today. With the holiday season just around the corner, Wall Street is closely watching large retailers such as Macy’s (M) and J.C. Penny (JCP) and Wal-Mart (WMT). Macy’s stock got a 5% pop today after reporting earnings that topped analyst estimates. J.C Penny reports after the bell today and both Wal-Mart and Kohl’s are expected to report on Thursday, so keep an eye out!

And finally, oil prices just keep on sliding down. The U.S. crude oil benchmark was down another 1.5% today to $76.81 a barrel. The news is good for your wallet at the pump, but maybe not for your oil investments.

3 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained with 1 of them making new highs as the YTD table below shows.

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New Records For S$P 500 And Dow

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The bond markets were closed in observance of Veteran’s Day, so trading in equities was thin, which may have contributed to the continuation of the rally.

It was a see-saw session, as the chart above shows, but the major indexes managed to close in the green despite no economic data points. In individual stock news, Alibaba stole the show after its big online shopping day, called “Singles Day,” which procured more than $2 billion in sales in one hour.

6 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed up as well with 3 of them making new highs as the YTD table below shows.

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Up, Up And Up Again The Markets Go

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Well, the markets continue on their march up the mountain of gains as both the Dow and S&P 500 marked record highs again today. The U.S. economy continues to improve and corporations report better-than-expected earnings. Today, the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, the Dow rose 0.23% and the Nasdaq trumped all adding 0.42%.

In the world of retail, the third-quarter earnings season winds down, so retail earnings reports are in store from Macy’s, Walmart J.C. Penney and Nordstrom. With 90% of the S&P 500 companies reporting, 74.6% have posted earnings above Wall Street analysts’ expectations. That’s better than the average 63% of companies beating estimates in a typical quarter.

We heard big news from China today. China will launch its “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect” program. What is significant about this? Well, for the first time ever retail investors around the world will be able to invest in mainland Chinese equities, without a broker.

According to Goldman Sachs: “The new market essentially creates the world’s second-largest equity market by market cap,” second only to the New York Stock Exchange. Many market participants have said that the new system is also an important piece in China’s market-reform measures. Is it time to learn Mandarin and jump in???

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight ended on the plus side while 8 of them made new highs as the YTD table below shows.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/07/2014

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 266 (last week 287) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 40 ETFs (last week 48) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 696 (last week 700) above the line and 150 below it out of the 846 that I follow.

Take a look:

ETF Master Cutline Report

ETF High Volume Cutline Report

MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Are Wages Stuck Because Of Slack In The Labor Market?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431The latest jobs report showed US labor force participation rate rose to 59.2 percent in October, the highest since July 2009. Yet the US economy needs to add another 5 million jobs to really reach the pre-recession employment levels, said Edward Lazear, a professor of economics at the Stanford University.

The population has grown significantly since before the recession and the easiest way to explain this phenomenon is to see the pre-recession numbers; 63.5 percent of working age population had jobs before the Great Recession. The employment-to-population ratio, i.e. number of people employed relative to the working age population, went up to 59.2 percent from 59 percent, which is way below the pre-recession level.

The US unemployment rate at the peak of economic activity was actually at 4.4 percent. So even if one considers the unemployment rate, which is not a very good indicator of the labor market, the economy is still a far-cry from where it should be. In order to keep up with the population growth, the economy needs to add about 120,000 jobs a month. Right now, the average is about 220,000 a month, which means the economy is gaining about a 100,000 jobs every month, and it should take about four years to reach where it was before he noted.

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