Sloppy And Choppy Equals Unchanged

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

It was a wild ride, but in the end nothing was gained as the S&P 500 closed about unchanged. The struggle occurred mid-day as the Fed minutes were released, which emphasized that, despite much jawboning to the contrary in the recent past, a premature rate hike “would harm the economy.” So, who knows when the inevitable rise will actually occur…

While the initial reaction was a sharp spike as lower rates for a longer period seem to be always welcome, a sell-off ensued, which was promptly reversed as we closed near the highs of the day. In other words, confusion reigned.

Economic reports were disappointing, which has been an ongoing theme lately, although you would not know it by the elevated level of the market indexes. Other non-inspiring news was the continued stalemate between Greece and its creditors along with the continued crisis in the Ukraine.

8 our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed up with 4 of them again making new highs; 9 of them are now on the plus side YTD.

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Stocks Regain Momentum To Finish The Day In The Black

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks began the day in the red, but all major indexes climbed back to close in positive territory. The big news of the day was that S&P 500 conquered 2,100 for the first time, another record closing. One of the primary drivers behind market gains today was the news that Greece will request an extension of its current bailout agreement with its creditors. It appears Wall Street is not betting on a Greek Debt Tragedy after all, despite last-minute talks between Greece’s new government and its creditors over bailout terms. Greece’s current loan deal expires at the end of the month and its future in the eurozone is at stake as is its pipeline to much-needed funds from eurozone lenders.

In tech, Apple (AAPL) hit another record high today; however, some analysts seem to feel there may be a resistance level around the $135/share mark. According to S&P Capital IQ, Shares of Apple are now trading for 17.2 times its diluted earnings per share over the past year; that’s very close to the 18x valuation which has been a problem for the stock twice before.

In the commodities world, Gold dropped 1.8% to $1,209.25 an ounce on the spot market, amid speculation Chinese demand will retreat during the Chinese New Year holiday. Silver tumbled 4.5%, and platinum dropped to the cheapest level in more than five years. Nickel and Zinc for three-month delivery in London sank more than 2%. Oil prices rose as U.S. benchmark crude gained 84 cents to $53.59 per barrel.

9 our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed up with 4 of them making new highs; all of them are now on the plus side YTD.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 02/13/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 273 (last week 253) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 45 ETFs (last week 41) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 423 (last week 310) above the line and 397 below it out of the 820 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Do Greek Banks Face An Immediate Cash Crunch?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431The Germans and the Greeks seem to have made some progress on semantics in the ongoing debt negotiations, said Gilles Moec, Chief European Economist at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

They have started to discuss the technicalities of the Greece debt-problem, which is a huge achievement. They have still not agreed on the principles – the Greeks are insisting to start things from scratch while the Germans seem to maintain that the existing program is the reference for any future deal.

However, they have agreed there should be some kind of a technical-assessment, which clearly shows there is a willingness to negotiate. Both sides started off with a lot of rhetoric, but have toned down since. For the Greek leaders, it makes sense to maintain a tough posture as long as there’s no pressing need for money because they have to cater to their own constituency at home.

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New ETFs On The Block: Reality Shares DIVS ETF (DIVY)

Ulli Dividend ETFs Contact

95519646San Diego-based Reality Shares Advisors, LLC, a new player in the exchange traded funds business, recently launched its first product that offers retail investors a unique investment option; eliminate the noise from dividend investing.

Founded by Smith and Barney and Morgan Stanley veteran Eric Ervin and his colleagues in 2012, the firm took two and a half years to launch its first product. The Reality Shares DIVS ETF (DIVY) uses derivative instruments to strip out stock price gyrations while capturing dividend growth.

To be sure, DIVY uses a strategy that has been used by institutional investors using structured products for a long time, mostly for their high net-worth clients. But such a strategy is being offered for the first time to retail investors in an ETF wrapper.

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02-13-2015

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For February 13, 2015

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/02/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-02122015/

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Market Commentary

Friday, February 13, 2015

S&P 500 NOTCHES RECORD HIGH TO CLOSE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The bulls charged forward to close out the second week of trading in February. The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 2,096.99 and the Dow above 18,000 again. This was the first record close of 2015 for the S&P, after 53 record closes last year. Needless to say, investors were smiling at the end of trading today.

What boosted markets higher on the week? International concerns eased, removing some of the anxiety that has been in the market for the past few weeks. Greece’s recent conflict with EU leaders over terms from the bailout funds received several years ago seemed to simmer down. And a cease-fire in Ukraine also lifted additional international concerns. Fourth-quarter earnings season is coming to end, which also removes some uncertainty, as companies were once again able to exceed Wall Street expectations and post nice earnings growth.

Markets are closed for Presidents Day on Monday, but it is a fairly busy week for economic data. Manufacturing activity will be in focus with the release of industrial production, and the Philly and New Year Federal regional surveys. Leading indicators will also give a fresh look into the direction of the economy over the next several months. However, the headlines of the week will likely be the producer price index and the FOMC meeting minutes that are released on Wednesday. The Fed has been able to remain patient while inflation has been muted, keeping interest rates near zero, so both of the releases will be closely watched for additional details as to when the Fed may increase rates.

6 our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed up with 5 of them making new highs; 9 of them are showing gains YTD as you can see in table 2.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) joined the rally and closed higher. As I wrote yesterday, in the absence of a major sell-off this morning, which did not happen, the International TTI has now generated a new Buy signal effective 2/13/15.

Here’s how this week ended:

Domestic TTI: +3.65% (last Friday +2.77%)—Buy signal effective 10/22/2014

International TTI: +2.39% (last Friday -0.89%)—Buy signal effective 2/13/2015

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

Reader Chuck:

Q: Ulli: I was just wondering why you don’t have a diversified REIT, such as VNQ, in your broadly diversified ETFs that you track/recommend.

A: Chuck: When I scanned through the ETF criteria for those to be included in the “ETFs in the Spotlight” list, none of the REITs made the cut. That does not mean they are not a viable investment option, it merely means that they did fulfill the requirement to make it on this particular list.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/