ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For January 30, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/01/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-01292015/

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Market Commentary

Friday, January 30, 2015

A DISAPPOINTING END TO A DISAPPOINTING MONTH…AGAIN

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Despite being one of the best performing equity markets in 2014, the S&P 500 is off to a choppy and sluggish start to 2015. Slow growth and deflation pressure in Europe have led to more aggressive central bank (ECB) stimulus, while alleged stronger growth prospects in the U.S. may demand a shift in Fed policy in the second half of 2015.

To recap the first month of trading, January finished 3.1% lower, similar to the 3.6% decline we saw in 2014. While we all know the saying “as January goes, so goes the year,” those that left the market after the decline in January 2014 would have missed a 15.5% gain in February through December. In fact, since 1950, a negative return in January accurately predicted negative returns for the year about 50% of the time – basically a coin flip. No one can predict what the markets will do. So, I think the lesson here is, let long-term trends dictate investment decisions, not catchy sayings.

Looking to next week and a fresh month of trading and economic data, we will receive an employment report on Friday. The expectations are for more than 200,000 job additions for the 12th consecutive month. Economists expect 230,000 jobs to have been added in January, and for the unemployment rate to stay at 5.7%. Other reports include the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, personal income and spending, and auto sales.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south today and only one is showing green numbers for the year. Take a look at the table in section 2.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/29/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, January 29, 2015

TOC 121514

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +2.53% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

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Stocks Break 2-Day Losing Streak

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks staged a strong afternoon rally and closed higher today as the major indexes broke a two-day losing streak. Utilities led the way for the S&P 500, as all ten sectors of the index posted gains.

In tech news, shares of Alibaba (BABA) plunged 8.5% after the Chinese Internet giant reported revenue that fell short of analyst expectations. The company is also dealing with a report from the Chinese government that said it allowed the sales of fake goods on its e-commerce platforms, however, there is much that is still to be determined. Google Inc.’s (GOOG) fourth-quarter sales and profit missed estimates as the Web Company’s advertising business faced more competition on mobile devices.

Continuing in the world of internet, Time Warner Cable (TWX) continued to lose cable subscribers in the three months ended in December as Americans experiment with cutting the cord to their cable. Perhaps mobile TV and streaming is the way of the future. However, the cable giant is not willing to give up by any means.

In economic news, the Fed strengthened its assessment of the U.S. economy Wednesday, noting it is expanding at a solid pace and generating strong job growth. The central bank also indicated it would remain “patient” in raising interest rates from near zero, which was expected.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to follow newly found upside momentum and closed higher with XLY leading the charge with  a +1.36% gain. YTD, 4 of the 10 remain on the plus side as you can see in section 2.

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Fed Commentary Takes Starch Out Of Upward Momentum

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks took a dive today, ending another wild ride with a plunge deeper into the red after the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement.

The Federal Reserve gave no indication today that it would stand down from plans to raise interest rates this year, noting that it expects unusually low inflation to gradually pick up as the “transitory effects” of tumbling oil prices fade.

Speaking of the slick commodity, oil prices slid again today. U.S. crude oil fell 4%, volatile as it has been and plunged deeper into the red after the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement. The Fed used more positive language to describe the outlook for the economy and the job market here at home; however, it seemed that Wall Street wasn’t buying into it.

In tech, Facebook (FB) topped earnings estimates for the seventh straight quarter. Facebook reported fourth-quarter revenue of $3.85 billion, an increase of 49% from $2.59 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013. Analysts had expected revenue of $3.77 billion. So, there is much to tip your hat to if you are looking at Facebook’s numbers to kick off the year.

Slipping and sliding, all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south with the financials (IYF) leading the way by surrendering -1.82%; YTD, however, 4 of them still remain on the plus side as you can see in section 2.

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Markets End Lower, But Not Without Hope From Economy And Airlines

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Major indexes ended lower today. However, not without seeing a blue sky. Yahoo shares rallied 6% after the company said it would spin off its remaining holdings in Alibaba into a separate entity. Stock in the new investment company created by the tax-free move, SpinCo, will be distributed to Yahoo shareholders. Speaking of Yahoo (YHOO), the company reported a revenue drop to $1.25 billion, slightly down from $1.27 billion in the year-ago quarter, while earnings were about half of what they were, which was $166 million this quarter versus $348 million in 2013.

In more tech news, we heard news from Apple today. Apparently, investors were expecting a huge holiday quarter from the company. Well, Apple did even better. The company’s shares jumped more than 5% today in after-hours trading. Apple said it collected $74.6 billion in sales, up 30% from last year, and also earned net income of $18 billion, up 37%, in its fiscal first quarter, which is the biggest of the year.

We heard great news from the airline industry today. The four major airlines all reported huge profits for 2014 in the past week. Airfares in 2014 were at their highest level since 2003, according to Department of Transportation inflation-adjusted figures. And flights in the USA ran at 81.6% capacity in the first 10 months of 2014 — a record level that is likely to continue to increase. At some airports, such as Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson, Denver International and Orlando, Palm Beach and Fort Myers in Florida, departing flights were more than 85% full last year.

To no surprise, all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight joined the downward momentum and slipped; however, 5 of them still remain on the plus side YTD as section 2 shows.

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Stocks Borderline, But Positive To Begin The Week

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended higher Monday, with the Dow basically flat, as investors grappled with the consequences of a victory for Greece’s anti-austerity Syriza party in general elections.

In corporate news, Microsoft (MSFT) shares dipped slightly today, even after the software giant reported a spike in revenue and profits in line with analyst estimates. The company posted $26.5 billion in Q2 revenue, compared with $24.5 billion a year ago. As Microsoft enters its 40th year of existence, its middle-age persona is increasingly keen to major changes in computing — including Big Data, mobility and the cloud — while reducing its dependence on PCs.

In the European Union today, European equities rose and the Euro strengthened, while Greek stocks retreated, after Syriza, whose leader has pledged to renegotiate an international bailout, won 149 out of a possible 300 seats in Parliament.

In earnings, prepare for a flood of earnings reports this week from some of the biggest names in Silicon Valley, including Apple (AAPL), Yahoo (YHOO), Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG).

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained with 6 of them remaining on the plus side YTD as section 2 shows.

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