ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 1/30/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 196 (last week 244) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 34 ETFs (last week 41) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 191 (last week 291) above the line and 629 below it out of the 846 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Will Earnings Expectations Be More Moderate This Year?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431A hike in interest rates may not happen in the US this July though that probably remains the appropriate policy move, said David Joy, chief strategist at Ameriprise Financial.

Ameriprise expects the US economy to grow by 3 percent in 2015, which justifies the beginning of a liftoff; but whether that happens in June or July remains to be seen. After Friday’s GDP number and the latest round of monthly data, the Fed can justify a push-back as long as they want and June-July looks appropriate, he added.

Not so long ago people were fairly convinced of a rate-hike by the middle of this year, but the narrative changed suddenly indicating a hike may not happen before the end of 2015.

Read More

New ETFs On The Block: Validea Market Legends ETF (VALX)

Ulli Equity ETFs Contact

91551519Investors have always been fascinated by the investing prowess of market legends such as Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet et al for decades. Their success in picking value areas of the stock market by sticking to fundamentals is no small achievement and neither are they easy to replicate.

However, in recent years a number of so-called guru ETFs has popped up to make life easier for the uninitiated. While most of the exchange traded funds have managed to meet investor expectations, none of them offers investors direct access to the investing methodologies applied by the legends of Wall Street. The newly-launched Validea Market Legends ETF (VALX) seeks to fill that void.

Validea Capital Management, the Connecticut-based investment advisor promoted by veteran fund manager John Reese, is the sponsor of VALX. The actively-managed fund follows a unique methodology in that it analyzes 10 different “guru” models that include, among other factors – value, growth, momentum and income. Next, it chooses 10 stocks from each investment strategy to constitute the underlying 100-stock portfolio, indicating the fund is very well diversified.

Read More

01-30-2015

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For January 30, 2015

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/01/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-01292015/

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Market Commentary

Friday, January 30, 2015

A DISAPPOINTING END TO A DISAPPOINTING MONTH…AGAIN

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Despite being one of the best performing equity markets in 2014, the S&P 500 is off to a choppy and sluggish start to 2015. Slow growth and deflation pressure in Europe have led to more aggressive central bank (ECB) stimulus, while alleged stronger growth prospects in the U.S. may demand a shift in Fed policy in the second half of 2015.

To recap the first month of trading, January finished 3.1% lower, similar to the 3.6% decline we saw in 2014. While we all know the saying “as January goes, so goes the year,” those that left the market after the decline in January 2014 would have missed a 15.5% gain in February through December. In fact, since 1950, a negative return in January accurately predicted negative returns for the year about 50% of the time – basically a coin flip. No one can predict what the markets will do. So, I think the lesson here is, let long-term trends dictate investment decisions, not catchy sayings.

Looking to next week and a fresh month of trading and economic data, we will receive an employment report on Friday. The expectations are for more than 200,000 job additions for the 12th consecutive month. Economists expect 230,000 jobs to have been added in January, and for the unemployment rate to stay at 5.7%. Other reports include the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, personal income and spending, and auto sales.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south today and only one is showing green numbers for the year. Take a look at the table in section 2.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) suffered from this week’s market slide and headed south. While the Domestic one remains on the bullish side, the International one dipped deeper into bearish territory.

Here’s how this week ended:

Domestic TTI: +2.02% (last Friday +2.81%)—Buy signal since 10/22/2014

International TTI: -0.97% (last Friday -0.47%)—Sell signal effective 12/15/14

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

Reader Marty:

Q: Ulli: I join the chorus of your many subscribers and give you hearty thanks for the work you do and the wealth of information you provide to help us be more successful investors.

An extra thank you is deserved for providing this information for free!

When the markets turn negative, as they are certain to do, is there any point where you would consider taking a position in one or more of the many inverse ETFs to continue capturing  a gain even while the markets continue to decline?

Fleeing to money market funds, with their current pitiful yields, will be actually a losing position because of inflation and other factors.

Are there ETFs that can provide a decent return without completely losing much of our capital position?

Keep up the great work.

A: Marty: Thanks for your kind words…

The first move, once the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) breaks below its long-term trend line indicating an upcoming bear market, is to the safety of the money market funds, as markets tend to get extremely volatile during a severe correction.

Then we can evaluate, without being emotionally attached, if there are any asset classes, such as bond ETFs, which are rallying despite the equity meltdown. If that’s the case, we may get invested in those areas. If things look uncertain, we will remain safely on the sidelines until the fog clears.

Alternatively, once the bear appears to have settled in, and we’ve seen no major bullish spikes, I may consider the short S&P 500 ETF (SH) and ease into the market with a small percentage at first. In that case, I will use the same trailing sell stop discipline that we use on the bullish side.

I am not a friend of leveraged inverse ETFs, as they tend to be too volatile for my risk tolerance.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For January 30, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/01/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-01292015/

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Market Commentary

Friday, January 30, 2015

A DISAPPOINTING END TO A DISAPPOINTING MONTH…AGAIN

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Despite being one of the best performing equity markets in 2014, the S&P 500 is off to a choppy and sluggish start to 2015. Slow growth and deflation pressure in Europe have led to more aggressive central bank (ECB) stimulus, while alleged stronger growth prospects in the U.S. may demand a shift in Fed policy in the second half of 2015.

To recap the first month of trading, January finished 3.1% lower, similar to the 3.6% decline we saw in 2014. While we all know the saying “as January goes, so goes the year,” those that left the market after the decline in January 2014 would have missed a 15.5% gain in February through December. In fact, since 1950, a negative return in January accurately predicted negative returns for the year about 50% of the time – basically a coin flip. No one can predict what the markets will do. So, I think the lesson here is, let long-term trends dictate investment decisions, not catchy sayings.

Looking to next week and a fresh month of trading and economic data, we will receive an employment report on Friday. The expectations are for more than 200,000 job additions for the 12th consecutive month. Economists expect 230,000 jobs to have been added in January, and for the unemployment rate to stay at 5.7%. Other reports include the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, personal income and spending, and auto sales.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south today and only one is showing green numbers for the year. Take a look at the table in section 2.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/29/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, January 29, 2015

TOC 121514

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +2.53% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

Read More