Equities Rally On Greek Hopes

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

In an abrupt reversal from yesterday’s pullback, the markets shifted into high gear and never looked back, as reports of alleged positive debt negotiations in Greece proved to be a sufficient driver to overcome the bearish crowd and recoup some of the losses. The main beneficiary was the Nasdaq which saw enough positive momentum to close at an all-time high.

Despite denials from various sources that a Greek deal was not imminent, it did not matter, the trend was up and nothing was going to interfere with the indexes making up some of the losses. Of course, it remains to be seen what market reaction will be, should negotiations end in disappointment.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight did an about face and closed up. Leading the group was Healthcare (XLV) with a gain of 1.16%, while iShares Select Dividends (DVY) lagged but still rallied 0.52%.

Read More

Stocks Lag After Holiday Weekend

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Well, I hope your holiday was enjoyable, because today was not for most investors. The Dow tumbled sharply and posted its worst day in May as a stronger U.S. dollar and mixed economic data rattled investors. The downturn was broad-based as all 10 of the S&P 500 sectors were lower and all 30 Dow stocks dropped.

In M&A news, Charter Communications (CHTR) said today that it is buying Time Warner Cable (TWC) for $55.3 billion, forging ahead with its theory that broadening its presence nationally would provide the leverage it needs to fend off the challenges in the turbulent pay-TV industry. After completing the deal, Charter will have about 27 million customers in 41 states, trailing only Comcast (CCV). Charter will pay $195.71 per share in the cash-and-stock deal — $100 of it in cash with the rest in Charter shares. The offer is based on Charter’s 60-trading day volume weighted average price.

In economic news, a manufacturing report provided mixed data as orders for durable goods orders dropped 0.5% in April but orders in the key business investment category gained 1%. Also, the housing market continued to show signs of improvement as home prices rose faster than expected in March and new home sales in April rose 6.8%.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed down that slippery slope and closed lower. The Global 100 (IOO) showed the worst performance with a loss of 1.63%, while Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) held up best by giving back only 0.71%.

Read More

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 05/22/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 303 (last week 326) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 55 ETFs (last week 62) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 592 (last week 581) above the line and 228 below it out of the 820 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Will US Equities Pull Back If The Euro Is Threatened?

Ulli Market Review Contact

Stock market text reflecting in man's eyeglasses

From a fundamental backdrop, the outlook for the US economy seems relatively constructive in terms of the macro environment, while from a policy perspective, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to do anything that’s going to undermine the notion that it has been a very cautious, pragmatic deliberate approach by the US central bank, said Mike Ryan, chief investment strategist at UBS.

So, from the fundamental side, it seems the economic environment is okay though the gains are likely to be pretty measured. There has been a pretty big re-rating in the equity markets; the earnings momentum has slowed a bit although the first quarter result was probably a bit exaggerated, and investors are likely to witness mid-single digit gains.

It may not be the replay of the seasonal theme “sell in May and go away,” but it’s going to be an environment where investors are going to see more choppy markets and more limited gains, probably through at least the summer, he noted.

Read More

New ETFs On The Block: Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ)

Ulli Gold and Gold mining ETFs Contact

Gold coins

Gold coins

Sprott Asset Management, the Denver, CO based asset manager known for its skills in precious metals investment, recently rolled out its second gold miner exchange-traded fund after the first product raked in more than $180 million following its launch last year.

The newly launched Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) follows a factors based strategy and invests in smaller cap stocks, but like its predecessor, it tracks an index co-developed by Zacks Research & Sprott and is managed by ALPS Advisors.

SGDJ follows the Sprott Zacks Junior Gold Miners Index, the first factor based index that targets junior gold and silver miners in the US and Canada. The new fund, unlike the previously launched Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), selects the stocks in a different manner in that it focuses on more advanced stage companies with higher historical success rates.

Read More

05-22-2015

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For May 22, 2015

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/05/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-05212015/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

MARKETS CLOSE LOWER FRIDAY, BUT ROUND OUT A SOLID WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended lower ahead of the Memorial Day holiday weekend as Fed Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reconfirmed that the central bank remains on track to raise interest rates this year.

Today, in the release of the minutes of its April 28-29 meeting, the Fed suggested that it was “unlikely” that they would hike rates in June. Financial markets began speculating the Fed would delay a rate hike given the weak spate of economic data that has been released recently.

Although Friday stocks ended lower, markets finished the week higher, reaching a fresh all-time high on Thursday. Performance across sectors was mixed as well. Telecom and health care stocks were the strongest upward movers, while energy and materials moved lower.

Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial day, however, the week will start with a busy Tuesday, with durable goods orders, the Case-Shiller house price index, new home sales, and consumer confidence all being released. Weekly jobless claims and pending home sales will both be released on Thursday.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped today with the Financials (IYF) holding up the best with a tiny 0.03% loss, while the Global 100 (IOO) fared the worst by giving back 0.57%.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) clanged only slightly from last week:

Domestic TTI: +2.77% (last Friday +2.85%)—Buy signal effective 10/22/2014

International TTI: +5.25% (last Friday +5.63%)—Buy signal effective 2/13/2015

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

————————————————————-

READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

Reader Ed:

Q: Ulli: I’m just wondering how you place your trailing stop orders.  I had a weird thing happen to me yesterday.  I had a 7% trailing stop loss on IPGP on the bid.  It has been trading around $95.00. The trigger price for the stop was $ 90.09, but I was stopped out @ $95.17.

I called Fidelity; they researched it & told me there were a couple of bids in before the opening at approx. my stop price of $90.09. This triggered the stop and Fidelity routed it to the best price… which was $95.17. They said it was unusual but it sometimes happens…   The problem is I still want to be in the stock.

My question:  Should I place my trailing stop losses on the last price instead of the bid? All of my ETFs have trailing stop losses on the bid which I thought was the correct way to do it. I have changed some of my stock stop losses to last price since this happened.  I’d appreciate any advice.

A: Ed: It’s nice to hear from you. 7% stops on stocks don’t work well due to the volatility. I only use the 7% rule on ETFs/Mutual funds. Personally, I don’t put in the stop ahead of time (I track it on my spreadsheet), because I only use day ending prices to avoid what happened to you, namely market manipulation and/or front running by the HFTs. If my stop has been triggered based on the day-ending price, only then will I enter the “sell” the next day as a limit order.

When using day ending prices for stops, you may get stopped out at worse price, but I am not interested in intra-day fluctuations but only how the markets end up once trading is over. That way I can better determine if the long-term trend, the basis for Trend Tracking, remains intact or not.

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!

Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

———————————————————-

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

———————————————————

Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/