One Man’s Opinion: Will US Equity Markets See Further Drops In The Short Term?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManThe stock markets in the US clearly show elevated volatility as the swings have now extended into the third week, said Jonathan Corpina of Meridian Equity Partners. One of the most important things that investors need to learn is to live with is the heightened uncertainty and volatility because this is the “new normal.”

Economic growth has not been very strong in the US and internationally, earnings growth has been tepid as well so far this year. Moreover, the jury is still out about a possible rate hike by the US Fed next week and investors do need to get used to the uncertainty. That said, there’s still room for a pullback as investors are reluctant to put money back amid the continuing volatility in the market, he said.

Amid the raging speculation about a possible rate hike, Wilmington Trust has maintained its exposure in stocks, said Luke Tilney. The current heightened volatility has also been caused by uncertainty about growth in China’s economy to the degree that those uncertainties have been factored in over the past few weeks in stock pricings but Wilmington believes risky assets are the place to be, he added.

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New ETFs On The Block: Virtus Newfleet Multi-Sector Unconstrained Bond ETF (NFLT)

Ulli Income ETFs, International ETFs Contact

InvestingFollowing WisdomTree’s “go anywhere” fund UBND’s (WisdomTree Western Asset Unconstrained Bond ETF) launch in June, Hartford, Conn-based Virtus Investment Partners entered the exchange-traded fund industry by debuting a similar product recently.

The newly launched Virtus Newfleet Multi-Sector Unconstrained Bond ETF (NFLT) has been launched in partnership with their party manager Newfleet Asset Management, a wholly-owned affiliate of Virtus.

Virtus’ actively-managed product uses a sector rotation strategy in order to provide high current income and capital appreciation. The unconstrained investment strategy does not require the manager to follow a specific index or niche in the fixed income space. Instead, it can reach every corner of the fixed income market irrespective of credit quality, currency, type of security or issuer.

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For September 11, 2015

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/09/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-09102015/

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Market Commentary

MARKETS CLOSE QUIETLY HIGHER IN ANTICIPATION OF FED DECISION

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Wall Street’s last session of the week was marked by a cautious tone, with stock prices cutting early losses and ending higher as traders awaited next week’s key decision on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Traders’ trepidation over whether or not the Fed will hike rates for the first time in more than a decade when it breaks from its two-day policy meeting Thursday has Wall Street playing it conservatively and safe today. No one is willing to make a big bet ahead of the closely watched decision.

Adding to the angst on Wall Street of late was a research report from Goldman Sachs today that said there is a chance for U.S.-produced crude oil to dip as low as $20 a barrel due to persistent oversupply and lower demand expected from slowing emerging market economies. Oil prices have dropped in half over the last 12 months as the market adjusts to a global surplus and an economic slowdown in China. The emergence of new sources of oil from the U.S., where producers are tapping shale reserves, has also fueled the recent decline.

After a month of volatility and an announcement it will close dozens of under-performing stores, Macy’s (M) announced earlier this week that it will soon open Best Buy (BBY) shops within some of its department stores as a way to test selling consumer electronics. The rollout will begin in 10 Macy’s stores across the country starting in November. Macy’s Inc. President Jeff Gennette said that the companies will test the stores through the holidays and into 2016 before deciding on the next steps.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight inched higher as the indexes vacillated within a trading range. The bias was up, however, with the leader of the day being Consumer Discretionaries (XLY), which added +0.75%, while the Global 100 (IOO) lagged with +0.17%.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/10/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, September 10, 2015

TOC 090315

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/24/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned below its long term trend line (red) by -2.03% after having generated a “Sell” signal as of 8/24/2015, which applies to all “broadly diversified domestic equity ETFs/Mutual Funds.”

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Equities Continue To Play The Balancing Act

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks rebounded a bit today after Wednesday’s wild ride that ended on a down note. Everyone is bracing for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates and the vibes are still wait-and-see.

The Fed will meet for two days on Sept. 16-17, which could result in the first interest rate hike in almost a decade. Low rates, of course, have been cited as a key driver of the big stock market rally over the past 6 years. Investors globally have been biting their nails in anticipation of the potential rate hike, but it has continually been delayed over and over again. Only time will tell if and when the rate hike will take place. My best guess is that they will delay again…

In the auto world, we heard that Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is recalling nearly 1.7 million recent-model Ram pickups to check or repair wiring harnesses, airbags and steering components that may be faulty. The largest of the three recalls announced today involves an estimated 1.1 million pickups sold in North America that may have steering-wheel wiring harnesses that wear because of contact with a spring and could inadvertently set off the truck’s airbag.

And in oil news, oil prices pared some of their gains today after a reported increase of 2.6 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended Sept. 4. However, energy traders it seems still await further indications on the supply-demand balance in U.S. markets. A week earlier, U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 4.7 million barrels, significantly above expectations for a build of 700,000. At 455.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight followed this week’s roller-coaster ride and closed higher as Healthcare (XLV) took the lead with +0.96%. Lagging behind was the Select Dividend ETF with +0.15%.

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Early Rally Fades And Falls

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

An early rally on Wall Street faded as stocks gave back all of their gains and fell hard — with the Dow plunging more than 200 points as it finished on the losing end of a 411-point swing. Stocks initially surged at the open and followed a major move higher in Japan, where Tokyo stocks had their biggest one-day percentage gain since 2008.

The swing came back to us here in the U.S. when we received a report that showed job openings in the U.S. hit a record high in July. The jobs report suggests that a tightening in the labor market, but at the same time raised concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week.

All the news in tech today centered on Apple’s (AAPL) expo. In a two-hour press event that made numerous nods to the enterprise market and the benefits of viewing video and game content on bigger digital displays, Apple stressed the bottom line. Essentially stating that it has every intention of milking the iPhone juggernaut for the foreseeable future. Apple unveiled new iPhones that have a ‘force-touch’ technology and pitched their re-imagined iPad, which was vouched for by a Microsoft executive onstage.

It was a reversal from yesterday as the roller-coaster ride continued pulling all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight down a slippery slope. Showing the most bearish momentum was Consumer Staples (XLP) with -1.64% while the Discretionaries (XLY) held up best by losing only -1.05%.

We remain in bear market territory.

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