Gold Shines, Bitcoin Flounders As Bears Return

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 started strong, hitting a new intraday high early in the session—its fourth straight record, but the Dow was leading the charge thanks to Boeing’s boost.

Boeing rallied after President Trump celebrated Uzbekistan’s $8 billion deal, and chatter about a major U.S.–China Boeing agreement kept buyers interested.

Yesterday’s breakout accelerated late as Nvidia popped almost 4% on fresh news of a $100 billion OpenAI data center partnership.

Still, with record highs coming fast, investors are keeping an eye on downside risks—like the threat of a government shutdown, given Congress’s funding gridlock and a looming September 30 deadline.

Momentum ran out after Powell’s comments on labor market weakness and uncertainty about the next rate cut. Bears seized the opportunity, major indexes turned red, and the short squeeze fizzled for the day.

Mega-cap tech suffered its worst drop since early August even as bond yields slipped. The dollar flattened out, gold set another overnight high, and bitcoin kept moving around its recent lows.

Now, traders are watching for Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed’s favorite inflation measure.

Will this print be the deciding factor for the next move in equities?

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Gold And Silver Roar As Stocks Bounce Back

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The week got off to a choppy start, with most major indexes opening in the red before regaining their footing.

The Nasdaq led the turnaround, clawing back above its unchanged line first and later dragging the Dow and S&P 500 along for the ride.

Despite the bounce, a looming government shutdown kept things from getting too lively—Congress still hasn’t sorted out a funding plan, and the deadline is less than a week away.

Still, stocks are coming off a strong run. Last week saw record closes for the major indexes, with the Russell 2000 small caps hitting a new high for the first time since 2021.

The Fed’s quarter-point rate cut is freshly baked in, and traders are now pricing in two more cuts by year-end and even more over 2026. But honestly, further gains will likely depend more on solid economic data than just rate moves from here.

Elsewhere, a short squeeze helped push equities higher today. Nvidia rallied 4% after announcing a strategic OpenAI tie-in, but precious metals stole the show—gold popped 2% to a fresh record above $3,780, and silver jumped over 2.5% to break the $44 mark.

Bond yields drifted a bit higher, while bitcoin dropped further, landing near $111k at a two-week low.

So far, the market’s shrugged off September’s reputation for volatility. The question is, can this momentum last through quarter’s end—or will some of these risks finally break through?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/19/2025

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (295 vs. 287 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 19, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

GOLD, SILVER RIP HIGHER WHILE SHORT SQUEEZE RALLY ROLLS ON 

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kept climbing, building on a record-setting week after the Fed finally delivered its much-anticipated rate cut.

As expected, the decision to lower the benchmark rate by a quarter point gave equities another leg up—even if Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the move a “risk management cut” and made it clear this isn’t the start of a freewheeling cutting cycle.

Apple led today’s winner list with a 1.4% gain as the new iPhone hit stores, and Tesla climbed 2%.

All the major indexes ended the week on a strong note: the S&P 500 and Dow added around 1%, the Nasdaq surged nearly 2%, and the Russell 2000 outperformed, notching its seventh weekly win in a row.

Stubborn inflation and a solid but slightly slowing labor market helped push the Fed to act, but bond yields actually rose for the week—supporting a relentless rally in the most shorted stocks and the Mag 7 basket.

The dollar advanced for a third day, gold capped a fifth straight weekly gain at a new high, and even silver broke out with a 2.7% jump. Bitcoin, meanwhile, cooled off and drifted down to $115k after hitting $118k Thursday.

So far, September has defied its reputation for market whiplash, but with another week and a half to go, will this steady run hold up—or is another bout of volatility right around the corner?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/18/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 18, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.86% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Fed’s Measured Cut Lifts Markets, Intel Leaps On Nvidia Deal

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

All the major indexes soared to fresh record highs today as traders rotated back into tech stocks, following the Fed’s rate cut and more hints that further cuts are coming this year.

Intel stole the spotlight, popping 26% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment and a new partnership on data center and PC products—Nvidia shares jumped over 3% on the news.

Yesterday’s volatility after the Fed’s move settled down, even if Fed Chair Powell was quick to tamp down hopes for an aggressive rate-cutting spree. While policymakers expect two more cuts this year and just one for 2026, traders had hoped for a little more action next year.

It looks like the Fed’s measured approach—cutting 0.25% this week—reflects stubborn inflation and a softer job market. Rather than a pivot, the central bank is clearly choosing “go slow and watch the data.”

The Mag 7 stocks continued to outperform, and heavily shorted names extended their win streak.

Bond yields resumed their climb, helping the dollar to a second straight day of gains. That kept gold flattish, but bitcoin closed at a one-month high north of $118k.

With a massive options expiration on tap tomorrow, will bullish vibes keep powering this run, or are we due for a shake-up?

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