Dow Pops After Trump Strikes Major Japan Trade Deal

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got a jolt this morning after President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan, sending the Dow up more than 200 points out of the gate.

Hopes are running high that this “massive” agreement, which introduces a 15% tariff on Japanese goods instead of the 25% that was originally on the table, could spark even more deals down the road. Trump also mentioned ongoing talks with the EU, aiming for another breakthrough before the August 1 deadline.

The S&P 500 followed the Dow’s lead, but the Nasdaq took its time, barely moving until it finally got a lift later in the session.

All eyes are now on Alphabet and Tesla, with both set to report earnings after the closing bell. As the first of the mega-cap techs to release results, their numbers could set the tone for the rest of earnings season.

Elsewhere, market sentiment brightened thanks to the Japan deal, even though U.S. existing home sales fell short of expectations and took some wind out of the macro surprise index.

The most shorted stocks had a wild ride but ended up helping the broader market, despite rising bond yields.

The dollar continued to slide, but that didn’t give a boost to gold this time, which ended the day lower. Bitcoin dipped but found its footing at around $118,000.

With so much riding on the next big earnings reports, will tomorrow’s market direction hinge on how Alphabet and Tesla perform after the bell?

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Gold Shines, Bitcoin Surges As Markets Look For Direction

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s market did a complete 180 from yesterday. Early optimism fizzled fast for the tech sector, dragging the Nasdaq lower, while the Dow held strong and managed to notch a gain by the closing bell.

The main culprit? Chip stocks took a hit, with both Nvidia and Broadcom sliding by almost 3%—fallout from a Wall Street Journal report that a colossal $500 billion AI project is facing serious delays and is scaling back its ambitions for now.

Earnings painted a mixed picture. NXP Semiconductors posted results that let down investors, sending the stock 1% lower. Over in aerospace and defense, Lockheed Martin stumbled a hefty 5% after revealing big program losses and slashing its profit forecast for the year.

Tobacco giant Philip Morris also slipped, dropping 7% despite beating earnings estimates, as traders focused on missed revenue targets and forward guidance.

With so many crosscurrents, traders are now glued to management commentary about macro uncertainty, tariffs, and, of course, what’s next for AI—a theme that’s moving both markets and stock prices with every headline.

By day’s end, only the Dow stayed green. The S&P 500 flatlined, and the Nasdaq stayed down for the count.

The much-watched Mag 7 basket of mega-cap techs underperformed the other S&P 500 names, breaking its recent streak of dominance.

Bond yields drifted lower, offering some support for stocks, while the dollar continued its losing streak. Gold bucked the broader action, charging above $3,400 for a solid daily win.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin bounced around but managed to rally past $120,000 before the end of the U.S. session—keeping its curious pattern of lagging global liquidity by about three months alive.

So, with everything swirling—AI delays, chip jitters, and macro worries—will the “risk-on” mood come roaring back, or are we in for more surprises as earnings season rolls on? And for crypto watchers: Is the long-awaited $200,000 Bitcoin within reach this cycle?  

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Bond Yields Dip, Gold Shines As Dollar Sinks

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes got off to a running start this morning, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. Hopes for some good news on the trade front and more upbeat earnings reports fueled the mood, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq scored fresh all-time intraday highs.

Big tech was in the spotlight again—Alphabet, Meta, and Apple kicked things off on a positive note, setting the vibe and dragging the rest of the market along for the ride. All eyes are now on Apple and Tesla as the first two Mag 7 names set to report earnings; if they can top expectations, it could add a serious boost to growth in the next quarter.

Trade talks were a hot topic. Commerce Secretary Lutnik stuck to his guns on that August 1 deadline for countries to start paying tariffs, but also left the door open for future negotiations, saying countries can still reach out after the date passes.

But it wasn’t all sunshine. The Conference Board’s latest leading indicators stumbled for the sixth time in the past seven months—a bit of a reality check as seasonal trends look set to flip from bullish to bearish, and global trade uncertainty creeps a bit higher.

An afternoon bout of selling took the wind out of the indexes’ sails, wiping away the morning gains and leaving the Dow in the red. But the Mag 7 basket once again outperformed the rest of the S&P names, keeping a bit of spark alive.

It was a busy day elsewhere too: bond yields fell across the board, the dollar slipped back to last week’s lows (helping gold jump above $3,400 with a 1.54% daily gain), and Bitcoin did the pump-and-dump routine, ending up about where it started.

ZeroHedge pointed out an interesting parallel between this year’s S&P 500 and last year’s chart action. With seasonal trends lining up, is the market about to repeat history—or are we in for some surprises as summer heats up?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/18/2025

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (235 vs. 256 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For July 18, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

CRYPTO GOES MAINSTREAM AS BITCOIN HOLDS STEADY IN QUIET SESSION

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 fired out of the gate, hitting a fresh record right after the opening bell—only to lose steam almost immediately. The major indexes slipped into the red not long after and spent the rest of the day glued to their flat lines, wrapping up in a pretty bland fashion.

On the bright side, some of the big tech names—Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet, and Amazon—logged early gains. Over in earnings land, both Pepsi and United Airlines kept their rallies going after dropping numbers that topped Wall Street’s expectations.

Right now, plenty of traders are in “risk on” mode, with the hope that a Fed rate cut might be around the corner. Here’s the twist: historically, strong bull markets actually do better without rate cuts. In fact, the very first rate cut can sometimes signal a top, not a new rally. Still, with inflation cooling off and GDP forecasts holding up, maybe this time will buck the trend.

After a sluggish start to July, so-called “soft” data (like sentiment and expectations) is catching up to the more concrete “hard” numbers, fueling optimism. The Citi Economic Surprise Index even points to things picking up, even though today’s action on Wall Street was mostly sideways.

For the week, the Mag7 stocks easily outpaced the rest of the S&P 500, helped along by a relentless squeeze in the most shorted names. Bond yields were all over the place, the dollar ended stronger, and gold managed a move higher.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, took a nap after Monday’s surge and ended the week unchanged.

It’s worth pointing out that even the trading community is catching on: crypto isn’t just a fringe asset anymore—it’s quickly becoming a staple for mainstream investors.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/17/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, July 17, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.73% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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