One Man’s Opinion: Here’s How The Next Recession Begins

Ulli Market Review Contact

By Simon Black

In 1886 there were only 38 states in the United States.

Electric power was still cutting edge technology that few people had ever seen.

The Statue of Liberty hadn’t even been dedicated yet.

But it was that year that a man named Richard Sears founded a small retail company in Minneapolis, Minnesota that would grow into a retail juggernaut.

Sears was truly the Amazon of its day.

Even in the late 1800s the company was able to deliver just about any product you wanted right to your doorstep.

This was no small feat considering the first delivery truck wouldn’t be invented until 1895. There was no transportation infrastructure. And two-thirds of the population lived in remote rural areas.

Yet despite those challenges, Sears was still able to put any product you wanted in your hands.

Over time as consumer trends changed, the company started opening physical retail stores.

And once the concept of the ‘shopping mall’ became popular, Sears department stores became a mainstay at malls across America.

Read More

ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/25/2017

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below please find the latest High Volume ETFs Cutline report, which shows how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.

This report covers the HV ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 366 High Volume ETFs ETFs, defined as those with an average daily volume of more than $5 million, of which currently 265 (last week 248) are hovering in bullish territory. The yellow line separates those ETFs that are positioned above their trend line (%M/A) from those that have dropped below it.

Take a look:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report            

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 25, 2017

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet

https://theetfbully.com/2017/08/weekly-statsheet-etf-tracker-newsletter-updated-08242017/

SNAPPING A TWO-WEEK LOSING STREAK

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

Anticipation was high ahead of speeches by Yellen and Draghi, which was reflected in the early rally right after the markets opened. However, disappointment set in as neither one offered any clues about future monetary policy moves. Despite an ugly last hour dive in the indexes, we not only managed to stay above the unchanged line (except the Nasdaq) but also snapped a two-week losing streak.

Equities were in rally mode joined by bonds and precious metals. Interest rates retreated, and the 20-year bond (TLT) sprinted ahead +0.39%. Gold inched higher but did not manage a close above the $1,300 level. The Nasdaq was the weakling of the day causing Semiconductors (SMH) to retreat -0.31% in an otherwise bullish environment. The FANG stocks dropped as well for the day and for the week.

All equity ETFs did well with Transportations (IYT) taking the win with +1.14%. That was followed by Emerging Markets (SCHE) with +0.78% and International SmallCaps (SCHC) adding +0.73%. The US dollar (UUP) traded in a broad range and ended up being the whipping boy again by dumping -0.83% to its lowest close since May last year. YTD, it’s now down over 10%.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/24/2017

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 24, 2017

Methodology/Use of this StatSheet:

  1. From the universe of over 1,800 ETFs, I have selected only those with a trading volume of over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so that liquidity and a small bid/ask spread are assured.
  2. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Buy or Sell decisions for Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2), are made based on the respective TTI and its position either above or below its long-term M/A (Moving Average). A crossing of the trend line from below accompanied by some staying power above constitutes a “Buy” signal. Conversely, a clear break below the line constitutes a “Sell” signal. Additionally, I use a 7.5% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories to control downside risk.

  1. All other investment arenas do not have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of the individual ETF relative to its own respective trend line (%M/A). That’s why those signals are referred to as a “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF crosses its own trendline to the upside, a “Buy” signal is generated. Since these areas tend to be more volatile, I recommend a wider trailing sell stop of 7.5% -10% depending on your risk tolerance.

If you are unfamiliar with some of the terminology, please see Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

 

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY — since 4/4/2016

Click on chart to enlarge

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart) is positioned above its long-term trend line (red) by +2.31% after having generated a new Domestic Buy signal effective 4/4/2016 as posted.

Read More

Stock Stumble Continues

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

Even though the day started on the plus side for the major indexes, early upward momentum was not sustainable as miserable housing data, for the second day in a row, gave the bears something to cheer about. Uncertainty continued as the debt-ceiling-battle between Trump and McConnell showed no compromise and threw doubt on an amicable solution. And last not least, the energy complex tuned chaotic with Hurricane Harvey threatening to near landfall.

In the end, the major indexes ended up vacillating tightly around the unchanged line and closing slightly below it. Slipping the most were Transportations (IYT) with -0.64%. On the plus side, Emerging Markets (SCHE) added +0.34% while SmallCaps (SCHA) gained +0.18%.

With uncertainty keeping a leash on any market advances, bonds slipped with the 20-year T-Bond (TLT) losing -0.37%. The US dollar (UUP) traded in a tight range and ended higher by +0.21%. Gold dropped a tad and remains in a tight trading range just below its $1,300 milestone marker.

Read More

Rally Peters Out…

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

After yesterday’s euphoric rally, reality set in and pulled the indexes off their lofty levels. To be clear, the pullback was relatively benign compared to the gains. Contributing to the uneasiness was President Trump’s threat to shut down the government should congress continue to stonewall his efforts to build a wall along the Mexican border. In cased you don’t remember “the wall” was one of Trump’s campaign centerpieces.

All this demonstrates is how fragile the current environment is given that the upcoming debt ceiling debate looks to be a very contentious event. Of course, all this jawboning can’t hide the fact that in past years, a common ground was always found to make sure the limit to the US credit card was raised by a sufficient margin to continue reckless spending.

Across the ETF spectrum, there were more winners than losers. On the plus side, we saw Emerging Markets (SCHE) score a nice gain of +0.60%, while Semiconductors (SMH), despite the Nasdaq’s loss, closed in the green by +0.21%. On the losing side, Transportations (IYT) fared the worst with -1.33%, followed by the Dividend ETF (SCHD) with -0.35%.

Gold and bonds rallied in sync with gold adding +0.36% but still remaining below its $1,300 level. As yields dropped, the 20-year bond advanced and gained +0.68%, which is its highest level since late June. Bucking the trend was the US dollar (UUP) as it lost -0.41% for the day and -9.9% YTD.

Read More