1. Moving the market

The markets bounced back in style this morning, with all the major indexes recovering a big chunk of Friday’s losses that were sparked by worries about the economy and those new tariffs from the Trump administration.

After a rough end to last week—when weak jobs data, hot PCE inflation, and the final round of mixed earnings all weighed on investor mood—Monday brought a relief rally.

Friday’s slump started with a disappointing jobs report and heavy downward revisions for prior months. That was followed by President Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and signing an executive order that pushed “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries up to 10–41%.

With little fresh economic news on the calendar this week, traders are keeping close tabs on trade negotiations with China following a meeting between US and Chinese officials in Sweden.

Seasonally, August tends to be rocky—historically the worst month for the Dow and the second worst for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—but some optimistic traders are hoping this time will buck the trend.

Heavy shorted stocks snapped back sharply today, rebounding right alongside the major indexes.

Lower bond yields helped keep the dollar in check, which gave gold more room to run—crossing above its 50-day moving average. After a choppy weekend, Bitcoin found its footing and bounced back toward $115,000.

So, with the calendar working against the bulls but today’s rally showing signs of life, will August stick to its usual script—or could this time really be different?

1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a hot start on Thursday, with Microsoft and Meta’s blockbuster earnings pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs early on.

Microsoft jumped 6% and Meta rocketed up 11.5% after both tech giants smashed expectations—Microsoft’s cloud business hit over $75 billion in annual revenue, and Meta posted both strong results and upbeat guidance for next quarter.

Traders were also eyeing a key trade deadline and some upbeat talk from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who suggested the U.S. and China might finally be closing in on a trade deal—though he didn’t give any specifics.

But despite all that early excitement, the mood soured as the day went on. The major indexes lost steam and wound up closing in the red, as bearish sentiment took over later in the session.

Looking at the month, the S&P 500 squeezed out a 3.13% gain and the Nasdaq rose an even stronger 4.77%. The “Magnificent Seven” stocks have easily cleared what was a pretty low bar for Q2 earnings, especially in AI-related sectors—though market enthusiasm faded by the end of the day.

Elsewhere, bond yields climbed, boosting the dollar to its first positive month since December. Gold stayed flat for a third-straight month even after testing near record highs but managed a solid 0.66% gain today.

Bitcoin started the month strong with a new record, but spent the back half stuck around $118k. The most shorted stocks got squeezed for much of July before finally cooling off in the final week.

All in all, it’s been a volatile but mostly positive month for markets.

(Incorrect Gold print)

1. Moving the market

Stocks opened with a slight uptick as investors chewed over new earnings reports and waited for the Fed’s interest rate decision.

Even a stronger-than-expected GDP print—showing the U.S. economy growing at a 3% clip last quarter, well above forecasts—wasn’t enough to distract Wall Street from the main events: rates, Fed policy, and ongoing earnings news.

Most investors were content to sit tight before the Fed announcement, and with futures putting the odds of any rate move at just 2%, nobody expected major fireworks.

Despite some political pressure, Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to signal he’s in no rush to make changes, so traders are betting the next policy move won’t come until September at the earliest.

That wait-and-see vibe followed a down day for the markets, as uncertainty over China trade talks and the possible extension of tariff pauses weighed on stocks.

As expected, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged. But Powell’s comments, coupled with a dovish statement highlighting “moderating” growth, whipped up some wild swings on Wall Street. By the close, two of the three major indexes were in the red while the Nasdaq managed to just barely hang on to a gain.

Elsewhere, the dollar and bond yields shot higher after the Fed, dragging gold down to one-month lows. Oil prices rallied on the back of new threats from the White House to buyers of Russian oil, and Bitcoin slipped before bouncing at around $116,000.

But the real drama unfolded in the copper market: after a strong 15% run this month, copper reversed sharply, giving up its gains after the White House slapped a hefty 50% tariff on all semi-finished copper imports starting August 1.

With so many moving parts, from Fed signals to fresh tariffs and trade turbulence, today’s market volatility could just be the start of a wild finish to the week.