Drifting Below The Unchanged Line

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

With bond markets closed today, equities lacked direction and meandered below the unchanged line with downward momentum accelerating late in the session. However, in the end, the losses for the major indexes were relatively minor.

The biggest losers were retailers, financials and healthcare, the latter of which suffered from weekend reports that Trump would seek to loosen regulations, which could lead to lower premiums. That would be a good thing for the population but a bad thing for companies’ profits.

In the ETF arena, the picture was mixed. We saw Semiconductors (SMH) outperform by gaining +0.73%, with Aerospace & Defense (ITA) logging it second place with +0.19%. Leading to the downside was US SmallCaps (SCHA) with -0.35% while MidCaps (SCHM) followed closely behind with a loss of -0.26%.

Gold had an up day, but still hovers below its $1,300 level. Oil rallied but failed to break above its $50 marker, while the US Dollar (UUP) traded in a tight range and ended up losing -0.16%.

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One Man’s Opinion: China Catalyst To Send Gold Over $10,000 Per Ounce?

Ulli Market Review Contact

By GoldCore

Jim Rickards is on record forecasting $10,000 gold.

But is China about to provide the catalyst to send gold even higher? And by how much?

Today, we fare forth in the spirit of speculation… follow facts down strange roads… and arrive at a destination stranger still…

China — the world’s largest oil importer — struck lightning through international markets recently.

According to the Nikkei Asian Review, China has plans to buy imported oil with yuan instead of dollars.

Exporters could then exchange that yuan for gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

Not only would the plan bypass the dollar entirely… it would restore gold’s role in international commerce for the first time since 1971, when Nixon hammered the last nail through Bretton Woods.

If the rumors hold true, China’s plan could enter effect by the end of this year.

Billionaire business magnate and sound money advocate Hugo Salinas Price ran China’s plan through his calculator.

It turned up a basic math problem that spells drastically higher gold prices — if the plan is to work.

Details to follow.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/06/2017

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below please find the latest High Volume ETFs Cutline report, which shows how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.

This report covers the HV ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 366 High Volume ETFs ETFs, defined as those with an average daily volume of more than $5 million, of which currently 269 (last week 283) are hovering in bullish territory. The yellow line separates those ETFs that are positioned above their trend line (%M/A) from those that have dropped below it.

Take a look:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report            

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 6, 2017

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet

https://theetfbully.com/2017/10/weekly-statsheet-etf-tracker-newsletter-updated-10052017/

FINALLY BREAKING THE STREAK OF RECORDS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

It had to happen eventually. Any string of records will come to an end, and the major market indexes are no exception. It was a mixed bag though with Transportations experiencing its first down week in seven while the Dow notched its fourth up-week in a row. The S&P 500’s record streak came to an end, as the index slipped a tiny -0.11% but it was up solidly for the past 5 trading days.

Causing weakness in equities was the jobs report, which showed a contraction of 30,000 in nonfarm payrolls for September. Some of this was priced in due to the severe disruptions caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. However, what was conveniently overlooked my MSM were the revisions. Look at this: July payroll employment was revised down from +189k to +138k, while August was revised up from +156k to +169k. Combined, it means that employment gains were 38k less than reported…

Of course, we know that markets and economic data are for the most part fabricated. Today, the BLS was caught manipulating wage data, which was nowhere reported either. If this subject interests you, please read the details here.

At the end of the day, equity ETFs suffered only small losses with Emerging Markets (SCHE) leading the pack lower with -0.40% followed by SmallCaps (SCHA) with -0.18%. Bucking the weakness were Semiconductors (SMH) with a gain of +0.40%.

Interest rates traded in a wide range and closed higher causing the 20-bond ETF (TLT) to lose -0.28%. Gold edged up, but Crude oil dropped another -2.91% not only below its $50 marker but also below its 200-day M/A. The whipping boy of the year, the US Dollar (UUP), also traded erratically but ended the day only -0.16% lower.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/05/2017

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 5, 2017

Methodology/Use of this StatSheet:

  1. From the universe of over 1,800 ETFs, I have selected only those with a trading volume of over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so that liquidity and a small bid/ask spread are assured.
  2. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Buy or Sell decisions for Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2), are made based on the respective TTI and its position either above or below its long-term M/A (Moving Average). A crossing of the trend line from below accompanied by some staying power above constitutes a “Buy” signal. Conversely, a clear break below the line constitutes a “Sell” signal. Additionally, I use a 7.5% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories to control downside risk.

  1. All other investment arenas do not have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of the individual ETF relative to its own respective trend line (%M/A). That’s why those signals are referred to as a “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF crosses its own trendline to the upside, a “Buy” signal is generated. Since these areas tend to be more volatile, I recommend a wider trailing sell stop of 7.5% -10% depending on your risk tolerance.

If you are unfamiliar with some of the terminology, please see Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

      

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY — since 4/4/2016

Click on chart to enlarge

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart) is positioned above its long-term trend line (red) by +3.27% after having generated a new Domestic Buy signal effective 4/4/2016 as posted.

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Up, Up And Away…S&P 500 Logs Its Sixth Straight Record Close

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

A passed budget bill proved to have enough fire power to propel the major indexes into record territory—again. The passed budget resolution is seen as a stepping stone to finally overhaul the tax code. While the timing of this event is still unknown, recent pessimism has now been replaced with hope that a resolution could be possible.

Consumer confidence took a hit, but that did not matter as equities were stuck in a one way street with green being the preferred color of the day. Not only did the S&P log its 6th record close, it also logged its 8th up-day in a row, which is its longest win streak since 2012. Throwing an assist to make this possible was the VIX, which was crushed again to an intra-day low of 9.13.

In ETF land, we saw predominantly gains but also some losses. Aerospace & Defense (ITA) took the lead with a gain of +0.61%, which was followed by US LargeCaps (SCHX) with +0.58% and the Dividend ETF (SCHD) with +0.42%. On the downside, International SmallCaps gave back -0.28% while the Transportations (IYT) surrendered -0.20%.

Interest rates rose with the yield on the 10-year bond climbing 2 basis points to 2.35%. Gold gave back -0.46%, Crude oil reclaimed its $50 marker; the US dollar jumped and gained +0.54%.

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