When Only Good News Matters

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

Even though I was a little facetious yesterday when commenting that the S&P needs to rally for the remaining 3 sessions of August to maintain its spotless record of rising every month, today was a step in the right direction. The Dow and Nasdaq managed to climb into the “green,” and the S&P needs to only make up 0.5% by tomorrow to accomplish the feat of 8 consecutive months of gains.

Helping the bullish cause, in the face of continuing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and N. Korea and more fallout from Harvey, were a couple of strong economic reports namely an alleged improved economic expansion in the second quarter along with ADP indicating that private-sector employers added 237k jobs in August, which was far above the expected 185k. Only good news was accepted and mattered today, despite the fact that valuations are lofty and not necessarily representative of the real economy.

Be that as it may, equities were in rally mode and, with the Nasdaq being the lead dog, it comes as no surprise that Semiconductors (SMH) took 1st place with a solid +1.40%. SmallCaps (SCHA) had a nice day for a change, after recent weakness, and rebounded +0.71%. MidCaps (SCHM) ended up in 3rd place by adding +0.58%, closely followed by LargeCaps (SCHX) with +0.53%.

Yields on the 10-year bond rose 2 basis points pulling the 20-year bond off its high for the year by a tiny -0.03%. Gold dropped a fraction of a percent but remains above the widely followed $1,300 level. The whipping boy of the year, AKA the US Dollar (UUP), gapped higher and gained +0.63%.

Read More

Clawing Back From An Early Sell-Off

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

The early morning sell-off, which had the Dow down nearly 135 points, is now in the rearview mirror with the index staging its best intra-day comeback in 9 months. All the worries of the day, like continued provocations from N. Korea, debt ceiling talk and more fallout from hurricane Harvey, were either ignored or brushed aside to insure a “green” closing. After all, there are only 3 trading days left, and the S&P 500 still needs to gain +0.97% to make sure it does not experience its first losing month of 2017.

Across equity ETFs, the leader was, to no surprise as saber rattling was in full force, Aerospace & Defense (ITA) with a gain of +1.44%. Following closely were Transportations (IYT) with +0.91%, while Semiconductors (SMH) were lagging behind but still registering +0.28%. The minus side was led by International SmallCaps (SCHC) with -0.35% and International Equities (SCHF) losing -0.31% both a result of European markets getting clobbered.

Gold zigzagged and ended slightly lower but managed to successfully defend its $1,300 level. The yield on the 10-year bond dropped 3 basis points to 2.13% and is now hovering at a major support level. Any break below it and we could see much lower rates, which are quite a turnaround from the YTD highs of 2.52%, reached in early March. As a result of today’s lower yields, the 20-year bond (TLT) rallied +0.32%.

The US Dollar (UUP) had an interesting day. After getting hammered early on, it managed to recoup all of its losses and eked out a gain of +0.13%. Nevertheless, its long-term trend continues to be bearish, and I see more weakness ahead.

Read More

In Harvey’s Wake: Major Indexes Steady

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

While Hurricane Harvey unleashed his enormous power over the weekend, the major indexes escaped pretty much unscathed and spent the session bouncing around their respective unchanged lines. The Nasdaq fared the best by gaining +0.28%. Retailers, along with the energy and financial sectors, slid early on but were not able to stage a bounce back later in the session.

Across our most widely tracked ETFs, Transportations (IYT) took 1st place with +0.35%, which was closely followed by Semiconductors (SMH) with a gain of +0.29%. On the losing side, MidCaps (SCHM) gave back -0.21%, while Dividend ETFs (SCHD) surrendered a tiny -0.11%.

Interest rates dropped a tad, but it wasn’t enough to push the 20-year bond (TLT) higher, instead, it lost -0.06%. To no surprise, with uncertainty caused by hurricane Harvey, gold was the beneficiary by gaining +1.38% to finally conquer its $1,300 milestone marker reaching a level last seen in October 2016. The US dollar (UUP) continued its bearish path for the year by making new lows and reaching a price point that we have not encountered since November 2014.

Read More

One Man’s Opinion: Here’s How The Next Recession Begins

Ulli Market Review Contact

By Simon Black

In 1886 there were only 38 states in the United States.

Electric power was still cutting edge technology that few people had ever seen.

The Statue of Liberty hadn’t even been dedicated yet.

But it was that year that a man named Richard Sears founded a small retail company in Minneapolis, Minnesota that would grow into a retail juggernaut.

Sears was truly the Amazon of its day.

Even in the late 1800s the company was able to deliver just about any product you wanted right to your doorstep.

This was no small feat considering the first delivery truck wouldn’t be invented until 1895. There was no transportation infrastructure. And two-thirds of the population lived in remote rural areas.

Yet despite those challenges, Sears was still able to put any product you wanted in your hands.

Over time as consumer trends changed, the company started opening physical retail stores.

And once the concept of the ‘shopping mall’ became popular, Sears department stores became a mainstay at malls across America.

Read More

ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/25/2017

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below please find the latest High Volume ETFs Cutline report, which shows how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.

This report covers the HV ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 366 High Volume ETFs ETFs, defined as those with an average daily volume of more than $5 million, of which currently 265 (last week 248) are hovering in bullish territory. The yellow line separates those ETFs that are positioned above their trend line (%M/A) from those that have dropped below it.

Take a look:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report            

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 25, 2017

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet

https://theetfbully.com/2017/08/weekly-statsheet-etf-tracker-newsletter-updated-08242017/

SNAPPING A TWO-WEEK LOSING STREAK

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

Anticipation was high ahead of speeches by Yellen and Draghi, which was reflected in the early rally right after the markets opened. However, disappointment set in as neither one offered any clues about future monetary policy moves. Despite an ugly last hour dive in the indexes, we not only managed to stay above the unchanged line (except the Nasdaq) but also snapped a two-week losing streak.

Equities were in rally mode joined by bonds and precious metals. Interest rates retreated, and the 20-year bond (TLT) sprinted ahead +0.39%. Gold inched higher but did not manage a close above the $1,300 level. The Nasdaq was the weakling of the day causing Semiconductors (SMH) to retreat -0.31% in an otherwise bullish environment. The FANG stocks dropped as well for the day and for the week.

All equity ETFs did well with Transportations (IYT) taking the win with +1.14%. That was followed by Emerging Markets (SCHE) with +0.78% and International SmallCaps (SCHC) adding +0.73%. The US dollar (UUP) traded in a broad range and ended up being the whipping boy again by dumping -0.83% to its lowest close since May last year. YTD, it’s now down over 10%.

Read More