One Man’s Jawboning Drags Down Markets; US Dollar Gets Clobbered

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

Things looked pretty hunky dory after the opening with the major indexes storming again into record territory. Then the hammer came down in form of Commerce Secretary Ross’s comments. Bloomberg reported as follows:

  1. ROSS: CHINA `SUPERB’ TALKING FREE TRADE, ACTING PROTECTIONIST
  2. ROSS: STEEL FORUM HAS MADE `ZERO DIFFERENCE’ FOR OVERCAPACITY
  3. ROSS: CHINA IS EXPORTING MORE STEEL THAN U.S. HAS IN CAPACITY
  4. COMMERCE’S ROSS: CHINESE IP REPORT WILL STILL `BE LITTLE WHILE’
  5. ROSS: IT WAS NO ACCIDENT THAT U.S. DIDN’T DROP TTIP W/ EUROPE
  6. ROSS: THERE’S GROWING RECOGNITION OF ACCUMULATED TRADE RISKS

That was enough to send the indexes reeling below the unchanged line. The afternoon rebound attempt limited the downside damage, but the Nasdaq fell short of getting back to green numbers. Sure, some exhaustion may have set in as well with equities having been on a non-stop run this year in addition to the substantial gains of 2017.

Today’s whip-saw left a mark in the ETF space as well, where losers outpaced winners. Semiconductors (SMH) came off its torrid pace and surrendered -2.03%. Transportations (IYT -1.44%) followed suit and to a lesser degree SmallCaps (SCHA -0.45%). On the plus side, we saw Emerging Market (SCHE) leading with +0.89%, joined by the Financials (XLF +0.67%) and Aerospace & Defense (ITA +0.54%).

Interest rates headed higher again with 10-year bond yield gaining 2 basis points to 2.65%. Continuing the bullish theme was oil and gold, while the US Dollar (UUP) was taken out to barn and spanked at the tune of -0.98%, its lowest price since November 2014. In  the past 12 months, UUP has now lost -13%.

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New Highs for S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

Two of the three major indexes stormed into record territory again after upbeat earnings boosted investor sentiment, and the bulls shifted into overdrive ignoring the Dow’s weakness. Helping matters was Netflix’s rally, as it topped the $100 million market cap. Also throwing in an assist was the ending of the government shutdown, although Congress only passed a 3-week funding measure, AKA: we solved nothing but merely kicked the can down the road.

Be that as it may, green numbers prevailed and the ETF space benefited as well. Closing to the upside were Semiconductors (SMH) with +0.65% with MidCaps (SCHM +0.39%) and Emerging Markets (SCHE +0.39%) following closely behind. Giving back some of their recent gains were Aerospace & Defense (ITA -0.33%) and the Dividend ETF (SCHD -0.24%).

Interest rates took a breather today with the 10-year bond yield declining 3 basis points to 2.63%. Gold and Crude oil advanced but the US Dollar UUUP), which has been in bearish territory since last May, took another -0.25% dive to close at its lowest since December 2014.

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Shutdown Ends: Markets Rally

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

It does not seem to matter what the news is, it’s all good for the markets. Friday’s fear of a looming government shutdown elevated the major indexes into record territory. Today’s announcement that the Senate moved to end the shutdown only 3 days later caused the markets to continue their record setting pace following the historic lesson that shutdowns don’t effect equities.

Of course, as trend followers we don’t really care what moves the markets only that they maintain their bullish course as measured by our Trend Tracking Indexes. Today’s action supported our cause as the ETF space was positively affected. Only Aerospace & Defense (ITA) dropped a tad and lost -0.41%. On the plus side, we saw Semiconductors (SMH) leading with +0.98% followed by Emerging Markets (SCHE +0.93%) and US LargeCaps (SCHX +0.84%).

Interest rates rose with the 10-year bond yield jumping 2 basis points to 2.66%. The US Dollar (UUP) round-tripped several times but failed to hang on any gains and slumped into the close losing -0.34%.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 01/19/2018

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below please find the latest High Volume ETFs Cutline report, which shows how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.

This report covers the HV ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 366 High Volume ETFs ETFs, defined as those with an average daily volume of more than $5 million, of which currently 244 (last week 249) are hovering in bullish territory. The yellow line separates those ETFs that are positioned above their trend line (%M/A) from those that have dropped below it.

Take a look:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For January 19, 2018

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet

https://theetfbully.com/2018/01/weekly-statsheet-etf-tracker-newsletter-updated-01-18-2018/

POSSIBLE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN; MARKETS RALLY

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the markets

It was a tug-of-war today that featured optimism over corporate earnings against the threat of a looming government shutdown. Despite the latter potentially adding more uncertainty, traders decided that any economic impact would negligible, so up we went late in the session with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new records. As a side note, this is now the second week in a row that the S&P 500 and VIX were higher together, an event that hasn’t happen since 2013.

Today’s action benefited the ETF space with all of our holdings showing green numbers. Taking top billing were SmallCaps (SCHA) with a solid performance of +1.14%, followed by MidCaps (SCHM +0.95%) and Emerging Markets (SCHE +0.80%). Low man on the totem pole was Semiconductors (SMH) with +0.09%.

Interest rates kept creeping higher with the 10-year bond yield adding 2 basis points to end the week at 2.64%, its highest level since mid-2014. Gold held steady, but the whipping boy of the past year, namely the US Dollar (UUP), did a pump and dump by retreating early in the session and then recovering and managing to climb above the unchanged line by a meager +0.17%.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/18/2018

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, January 18, 2018

Methodology/Use of this StatSheet:

  1. From the universe of over 1,800 ETFs, I have selected only those with a trading volume of over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so that liquidity and a small bid/ask spread are assured.
  2. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Buy or Sell decisions for Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2), are made based on the respective TTI and its position either above or below its long-term M/A (Moving Average). A crossing of the trend line from below accompanied by some staying power above constitutes a “Buy” signal. Conversely, a clear break below the line constitutes a “Sell” signal. Additionally, I use a 7.5% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories to control downside risk.

  1. All other investment arenas do not have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of the individual ETF relative to its own respective trend line (%M/A). That’s why those signals are referred to as a “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF crosses its own trendline to the upside, a “Buy” signal is generated. Since these areas tend to be more volatile, I recommend a wider trailing sell stop of 7.5% -10% depending on your risk tolerance.

If you are unfamiliar with some of the terminology, please see Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

                           

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY — since 4/4/2016

Click on chart to enlarge

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart) is positioned above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.97% after having generated a new Domestic Buy signal effective 4/4/2016 as posted.

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