AI Heavyweights Stumble As Metals Shine 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market tried to get something going early, but the bounce fizzled and the major indexes slipped back into the red as pressure in the AI space kept weighing on sentiment.

Chipmaker Broadcom dropped more than 4%, while Oracle slid over 3%, extending last week’s weakness that already had the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on the back foot. 

For now, it’s starting to look like the “Magnificent 7” may be a little less magnificent heading into 2026, as fierce competition in the AI race chips away at the dominance they’ve enjoyed.

That kind of shake-up could be a long-term win for the “other” 493 stocks in the S&P 500, which stand to benefit if leadership broadens out beyond a handful of mega-cap names. 

This week’s data could play a big role in whether that rotation sticks. November nonfarm payrolls and October retail sales—both delayed by the fall government shutdown—are due Tuesday, with economists looking for roughly 40,000 new jobs, down sharply from September’s 119,000.

Then on Thursday, the November CPI report lands, giving markets a fresh read on the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate. 

Away from equities, bond yields were mixed, Bitcoin slid to a two-week low before finding support around 85,000, and gold briefly tested Friday’s highs before pulling back to finish with a modest gain.

Silver ripped higher again to close above 64, and copper tacked on nearly 1%, underscoring how consistently the metals complex has helped shore up portfolios on days when stocks can’t get out of their own way. 

With AI leaders stumbling, economic data back in focus, and metals quietly doing the heavy lifting, the question now is whether this is the early stage of a healthier, more diversified market—or just another pause in an AI-dominated story that comes roaring back once the next batch of headlines hits.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 12/12/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (272 vs. 270 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For December 12, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

METALS KEEP SHINING, TECH KEEPS WHINING – WHAT’S NEXT?

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The Dow kicked things off by flashing a fresh record high—value and cyclicals were still getting love while everyone kept dumping tech.

But that early pop ran out of gas fast, and by mid-morning all three major indexes were sliding into the red, with the Nasdaq taking the biggest beating.

The main villain? Broadcom cratered 9% even after beating earnings and guiding AI chip sales to double**. That reignited the whole “when do we actually see ROI on this AI spending?” panic.

Palantir, Micron, and the usual suspects got dragged lower too. Meanwhile, financials, health care, and industrials quietly picked up some gains—classic rotation trade in full swing.

It was a wild, confusing week: dovish Fed + decent macro data on one side, AI profit-taking and valuation jitters on the other. End result? Nasdaq and S&P finished as the week’s big losers, while the Dow and small caps held up way better.

The Mag 7 got absolutely crushed mid-week onward, while the other 493 S&P names actually outperformed.

Bonds were mixed, the dollar hung near 3-month lows, but precious metals kept stealing the show—gold topped $4,300, silver kissed $65 intraday (another new record) before a little profit-taking hit.

Bitcoin? Pure rollercoaster but closed the week basically flat.

Quick question as we’re heading into the weekend: with tech getting punished but the broad market hanging tough and metals still on fire, does this feel like a healthy rotation that sets up a real year-end push… or the first little hairline crack in the 2025 bull story?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 12/11/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, December 11, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.93% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Fed Cut Euphoria Fades For Tech, But Metals And Small Caps Shine

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market was split today: the Dow pushed to fresh highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped early on as renewed worries about pricey tech and AI plays took some air out of yesterday’s Fed-fueled optimism.

The rate cut glow from the prior session was still there, but Oracle’s numbers reminded traders that not every big AI story is translating cleanly into earnings just yet.

Oracle sank about 13% after missing on revenue and flagging higher spending, which also sharpened concerns about its growing debt load.

That disappointment spilled over into the broader AI space, with names like Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD all trading lower and taking a bite out of the tech complex’s recent momentum.

Those moves hit right as the S&P 500 was flirting with new highs following the Fed’s third rate cut of the year and its decision to effectively take hikes off the table.

Small caps, tracked by the Russell 2000, remained a bright spot, as lower rates tend to benefit smaller, more rate‑sensitive companies, and they even managed a record close yesterday.

By the end of the day, every major sector except tech finished above the flat line, leaving the Mag 7 cohort trailing the other 493 S&P names by a wide margin.

Bond yields were mixed, the dollar extended its slide, and hard assets stole the show: gold pushed above $4,300 and edged closer to record highs, silver punched through $64 intraday to notch yet another record as it continues to run ahead of gold, and copper quietly added about 1.6%.

Bitcoin chopped around with Oracle’s swings but still managed to finish above $91,000, underscoring how jumpy sentiment remains even after the Fed’s attempt to calm things with another cut and dovish messaging.

With tech wobbling, metals ripping, the dollar sliding, and crypto still volatile, the big question now is whether this tug‑of‑war ends in a healthy rotation beneath the surface—or if renewed AI and valuation worries end up derailing the broader rally into year‑end.

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Third Straight Rate Cut Lights A Fire Under Stocks, Metals, And Bitcoin

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market spent most of the morning just shuffling around the flat line as everyone waited for the Fed, but things changed quickly once the decision hit.

By the close, stocks were solidly higher, with gains broadening out across almost every corner of the market.

The Fed did exactly what traders were hoping for, cutting rates by another 0.25%—its third straight reduction—and Chair Powell avoided saying anything that might kill the mood.

While there was some pushback inside the committee, his tone stayed comfortably dovish, which was all the market needed to hear.

After treading water early on, the major indexes flipped into rally mode, helped along by a late-day short squeeze that lifted nearly every sector into the green.

Bond yields slipped, and the “risk-on plus hedges” trade showed up in full force: Bitcoin jumped back above $94,000, gold pushed through $4,250, and silver briefly ripped above $62 before easing just under that mark into the close.

As expected, the dollar weakened and ended the day right back where it was at the time of the prior FOMC meeting, underscoring how much the focus has shifted toward easier policy and looser financial conditions.

With the long-anticipated rate cut now delivered and the Fed sounding more helpful than harmful, the big question is whether this sets the stage for the classic Santa Claus rally—or if lingering growth and inflation worries will cap the upside into year-end.

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