Stocks Sink, Silver Shines, And All Eyes Turn To The Fed

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets opened in the red today, weighed down by fresh tensions in the Middle East.

Hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran were dashed, as the conflict showed no signs of cooling off—despite earlier reports suggesting otherwise.

Oil prices surged nearly 5%, reversing Monday’s dip that had been sparked by a Wall Street Journal report hinting at Iran’s willingness to negotiate. With the saber-rattling back in full swing, energy markets are on edge again.

Adding to the pressure, retail sales came in weaker than expected. Consumer spending dropped 0.9% in May, missing forecasts of a 0.6% decline.

That’s not a great sign for the economy, especially when paired with other downbeat data: industrial production slipped, and homebuilder confidence hit a 13-year low.

The gap between “hard” and “soft” data is narrowing, and traders took notice—especially in retail, where some of the market’s favorite names took a hit. Meanwhile, the most shorted stocks gave back yesterday’s gains in a hurry.

In other markets, bond yields fell across the board, the dollar had its biggest jump in six weeks, gold stayed flat, and silver popped over 2%. Bitcoin spiked at the open but pulled back, finding support around the $104K mark.

Now, all eyes are on the Fed. Will they surprise Wall Street with a rate cut tomorrow?

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Markets Rebound As Traders Bet On Contained Conflict

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets kicked off the week with a strong rebound, fueled by optimism that the Israel-Iran conflict might stay contained and that Friday’s sharp sell-off may have been a bit overdone.

Traders seemed to breathe a little easier after a Wall Street Journal report suggested Iran might be open to renewed negotiations—as long as the U.S. stays out of the fight. The report also hinted that Iran had urged Israel to keep things limited. That said, Iran later denied much of it, so the picture remains murky.

Despite the ongoing conflict—now in its fourth day—Wall Street appears relatively calm, at least for now. Both countries targeted each other’s energy infrastructure today, which could have serious global consequences if things escalate, especially if the Strait of Hormuz (a vital oil shipping route) gets disrupted.

Still, the major indexes clawed back a good chunk of Friday’s losses, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. A short squeeze gave the rally an extra boost, especially for the mega-cap tech names.

In other markets, bond yields ticked up, the dollar slipped after a midday bounce, and Bitcoin surged toward the $109K mark on hopes of easing tensions.

Gold, on the other hand, gave back Friday’s gains—but if the saber-rattling picks up again, you can bet it’ll be back in demand as the go-to safe haven.

So, is this just a temporary relief rally—or the start of something more sustainable?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 06/13/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (186 vs. 198 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For June 13, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH AMID MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets opened with a thud today after Israel launched a wave of airstrikes on Iran, sending shockwaves through global markets and pushing crude oil prices up a sharp 8%.

The sudden escalation added yet another layer of uncertainty to an already tense geopolitical landscape.

Israel’s defense minister declared a special state of emergency, while U.S. officials were quick to distance themselves, confirming no involvement in the strikes. The ripple effects were immediate—energy prices surged, inflation fears reignited, and gold jumped as investors rushed to safety.

President Trump is once again urging Iran to return to the negotiating table for a nuclear deal, after the last attempt two months ago fizzled out.

On a brighter note, consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, climbing to 60.5 in June—well above expectations and marking a nearly 16% jump from the previous month.

Still, it was a rough day for stock indexes. The S&P 500 lost its grip on the 6,000 level, and even the Mag7 and heavily shorted names couldn’t stop the bleeding.

Bond yields, which had been sliding all week, bounced back after Iran’s retaliation. The dollar ended the week slightly higher, while Bitcoin—often seen as a safe haven—closed lower.

And gold? It stole the spotlight, gaining 1.48% on the day and notching a record closing high. In times like these, it’s hard to argue against its reputation as a crisis-proof asset.

With so many moving parts—from oil to inflation to global conflict—as trend followers, we’re built for moments like this—riding the waves, not fighting them.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 06/12/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, June 12, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +2.02% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Precious Metals Pop As Middle East Tensions Stir Safe-Haven Demand

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the day in the red but quickly turned things around, climbing out of the early dip and finishing solidly in the green. The major indexes all pushed above their breakeven lines, riding a wave of renewed optimism.

Fueling that positive vibe was the May Producer Price Index (PPI), which came in cooler than expected—up just 0.1% after a 0.2% drop in April. Economists were bracing for a 0.2% rise, so this softer number gave investors a bit of relief on the inflation front.

Still, Wall Street isn’t breathing easy just yet. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain front and center. President Trump hinted at flexibility on the July 8 deadline for new tariffs, not just with China but with other trading partners too. That’s keeping markets on edge.

Looking ahead, the big question is whether we’ll see a breakthrough on tariffs. A resolution could be the spark that sends markets to new highs—especially if it aligns with budget talks and the Fed’s next move. Without it, we might just drift sideways in a fog of uncertainty.

Adding to the mixed signals, Trump said the U.S. is “fairly close” to a deal with Iran—then followed it up with a cryptic comment about “something possibly happening soon in the Middle East.” Not exactly reassuring.

Despite all that, the Dow and S&P 500 managed to close at their intraday highs. The 10-year Treasury yield hit session lows, and Bitcoin also dipped—though without any clear reason.

Meanwhile, precious metals had a strong day, with gold bouncing back from recent losses and silver rebounding after slipping below $36.

With geopolitical tensions simmering, especially in the Middle East, could gold and silver be the safe havens investors turn to next?

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