[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened weak and stayed under pressure for most of the day, as oil prices kept climbing on fresh worries from the U.S.-Iran conflict.

West Texas Intermediate crude swung between $93 and $100 a barrel, while Brent surged 3% to $111 after Iran struck a key LNG export facility in Qatar and Israel hit Iran’s South Pars gas field.

Iran retaliated by targeting Qatari energy sites, and President Trump warned that any more attacks on Qatar would lead to the U.S. “massively blowing up” the South Pars field.

One analyst summed it up: the U.S. and Israel have “won” the conventional war, but there’s no quick military fix for reopening the Strait of Hormuz without ground troops—meaning diplomacy is the only real path back to normal supply.

That energy shock kept the risk-off mood alive, with the S&P 500 and Dow closing lower (the S&P almost lost its 200-day moving average). The Nasdaq felt the tech weakness too.

Small caps were the outlier, outperforming thanks to a big short squeeze that pushed them into the green.

Bond yields surged midday but ended about flat, the dollar had an ugly day, gold got spanked again, and Bitcoin dipped but found support at $69K and popped into the close.

The metals complex is in a long-overdue correction after its huge run-up, but my long-term view remains bullish. The big legs lower in gold this week happened during Asia and Europe sessions, likely tied to strains in global dollar funding—if there’s a dollar shortage, gold gets sold first.

Big picture: the energy shock means higher inflation, slower growth, and a less accommodative Fed—unless a funding crisis forces emergency rate cuts.

Today’s weakness adds to the chop we’ve seen, but the underlying trend hasn’t broken yet.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened lower and stayed under pressure all day, as a hotter-than-expected producer price index (PPI) report added fuel to inflation worries.

The PPI—measuring wholesale prices—jumped 0.7% in February, way above the 0.3% economists had forecast. That came on top of the ongoing Iran war, which has already jacked up oil prices and stoked stagflation fears (rising inflation + slowing growth).

West Texas Intermediate crude climbed more than 2% to around $98 a barrel, while Brent jumped over 5% to $109. The spike followed reports of Israel striking Iran’s largest gas processing facility in Bushehr Province, plus Iran’s threats to target oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

The Fed did exactly what was expected—held rates steady—but the hotter inflation data made them sound to get more hawkish if needed, with price stability now front and center.

None of that was market-friendly, so we got another broad sea of red. Bond yields rose sharply (nailing the coffin on equities), rate-cut expectations sank, and the dollar pushed higher.

There was no real safe haven today—gold puked and lost its $5,000 level, the metals complex generally sold off, and Bitcoin reversed course but found support around $71K.

I’m wondering if dip buyers are still alive and ready to step in to save the markets from further turmoil, or if this kind of pressure might need more time to play out.

Continue reading…

2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)

Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.

This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.

Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Bullish vibes were nowhere to be found—the bears took full control from the open and drove everything deep into the red.

Stocks, bonds, crypto… you name it, it got hit hard. There was really no place to hide, and even the metals took a solid licking, unable to buck the trend like they often do.

Our TTIs couldn’t escape the pressure either—they gave back some of their recent gains, with both pulling lower.

The domestic one is now getting uncomfortably close to its long-term trend line and risks breaking below it, which would end the current Buy cycle. The international TTI held up a little better but still retreated.

This is how we closed 03/18/2026:

Domestic TTI: +1.80% above its M/A (prior close +3.16%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.

International TTI: +4.78% above its M/A (prior close +5.83%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The major indexes kicked off on a positive note, building on yesterday’s momentum as traders stayed focused on the latest twists in the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Oil prices were volatile again—Brent crude bounced 2% and traded above $100 early—but the headline noise didn’t kill the bullish mood.

President Trump said a coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still coming together, with some countries “really enthusiastic” and already stepping up. That helped calm some supply fears.

Overnight, Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani was killed in airstrikes, adding to the uncertainty, but markets largely shrugged it off.

Some analysts credit the relatively strong economy, contained inflation, and solid earnings for keeping the rally alive, while others point out that risks to growth are mounting and feel higher than just a few weeks ago.

By the close, the indexes eked out a second straight green day, led by small caps outperforming.

Bond yields retreated, the dollar softened, gold danced around $5,000 without much progress, and Bitcoin outperformed again — rising to $76K before fading but still closing higher.

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady tomorrow, so markets will need a fresh driver to keep the two-day winning streak alive.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The major indexes bounced nicely early on, as traders took comfort that the U.S.-Iran situation didn’t escalate over the weekend.

Geopolitical tensions stayed in check, and with stocks looking oversold after recent weakness, dip-buyers jumped in to fuel a rebound.

Meta climbed more than 2% on a report (which the company called “speculative”) that it’s planning to lay off over 20% of its workforce.

Nvidia added more than 1% ahead of its GTC conference kicking off today. Those moves helped lift the broader market after the S&P 500 posted its third straight losing week and closed at its lowest level of the year on Friday.

Oil prices eased back after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

A Wall Street Journal report added to the relief, noting the U.S. will soon announce a coalition of countries to escort ships through the Strait.

President Trump had ordered strikes on Iranian military assets on Kharg Island Friday (avoiding oil infrastructure), but he warned further action could target those facilities if Iran keeps blocking the route.

By the close, the indexes locked in a winning session, with the Nasdaq leading the way. An early short squeeze fizzled, but a second one later in the day held up nicely.

Bond yields backed off recent highs (helping equities), the dollar gave back Friday’s gains, gold treaded water around $5,000, and Bitcoin extended its recent run, recapturing $74,000—its highest since early February.

Right now, the geopolitical crisis seems to be following its own roadmap, so today’s bounce leaves me wondering whether it’s the start of a real turnaround or just a one-day outlier.

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