- Moving the market
Equities advanced this morning, buoyed by Trump’s announcement of a finalized trade deal between the U.S. and the United Kingdom. “It’s a full and comprehensive one,” he elaborated, “which will cement the relationship between our countries for many years to come.”
Tech shares received a boost from news that the current administration will rescind the Biden-era AI chip controls, which were set to take effect later this month. Nvidia, Intel, and AMD all climbed, joined by Amazon and Tesla.
Although the Fed’s announcement to hold rates steady is now behind us, concerns persist that “soft” data like sentiment and confidence will eventually impact “hard” data such as retail sales, GDP, and employment. However, this concern has not yet materialized.
Overall, today’s market news was positive, with more favorable developments than negatives. This optimism reduced rate-cut expectations as “soft” data showed signs of improvement.
Small Caps outperformed, driven by a massive short-squeeze, which also benefited the Mag7 basket, despite surging bond yields. The dollar returned to one-week highs, causing gold to retreat, with the precious metal finding support at $3,300.
Bitcoin continued its rally, surpassing the $101k level for the first time since February. Crude oil joined the bullish sentiment, erasing yesterday’s losses.
While our International TTI has signaled a “Buy,” based on today’s action, the Domestic TTI may not be far behind.
2. Current domestic “Sell” Cycle (effective 4/4/25); International “Buy” Cycle effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic Buy cycle, which started on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025. The market responded negatively to Trump’s tariff policy, leading to a sharp decline in major indexes and the broader market.
On April 4, 2025, our International Trend Tracking Indicator (TTI) also dropped significantly, triggering a “Sell” signal. However, it has since rebounded to a level that has generated a new “Buy” signal, effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes fluctuated above their respective unchanged lines throughout the session. Despite a last-hour sell-off, bullish sentiment prevailed, resulting in another positive close.
Our TTIs both gained, with the domestic one outperforming.
This is how we closed 05/08/2025:
Domestic TTI: -1.41% below its M/A (prior close -2.24%)—Sell signal effective 4/4/25.
International TTI: +3.13% above its M/A (prior close +3.10%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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