1. Moving the market

The markets opened in the red, but early positive sentiment helped the major indexes recover and cross into positive territory.

However, this rebound was short-lived, and the indexes ultimately reversed to end with moderate losses.

Traders were focused on Trump’s latest 25% tariff on foreign automakers, which led to declines in U.S. carmakers: GM fell over 7%, Stellantis dropped 1%, and Ford dipped nearly 4%.

Offsetting this news were hints from Trump that the April 2nd levies would be “very lenient” and that he might reduce tariffs on China to facilitate a deal with ByteDance’s TikTok.

Conversely, he threatened to impose “far larger” tariffs on the European Union and Canada if they collaborate to combat trade tariffs.

These developments did little to calm the markets, suggesting that any rebound in stocks may be short-lived, as seen in recent times. Volatility is likely to persist until policy uncertainty is resolved.

Bond yields were mixed, the dollar dipped, and Bitcoin saw volatility but found support at $86k.

Gold was the standout performer, hitting a new record high just shy of $3,060, boosting its quarterly advance to over 16%—its highest quarterly gain since 1986, as noted by ZH.

Will we see gold break $3,100 in April?

1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and the tech sector faced early pressure and retreated as traders grappled with uncertainties surrounding tariff threats and negative news about AI and data centers.

Inflation and concerns about a potential economic slowdown, with the April 2nd tariff implementation looming, were dampening bullish sentiment.

Although Trump indicated that the tariffs might be more “lenient than reciprocal,” softening his stance from earlier reports, he still left his options open.

However, recent data points over the past week have shown that housing starts, building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization, and new home sales were all in line with or better than expectations, casting doubt on some of the negative impacts of the tariffs.

The market took another hit in afternoon trading as Trump scheduled a press conference after the close today to announce auto tariffs. While no details were available, the announcement was enough to erase any bullish sentiment, with all major indexes sinking into the red.

The most shorted stocks reversed and gave back this week’s advances, bond yields inched higher, as did the dollar. Gold remained unaffected, treading water, and closing unchanged. Bitcoin followed the tech sector lower but found support at the $86k level.

Nvidia plunged almost 6%, bringing back historical comparisons to Cisco Systems and raising the question: Will history repeat itself?

1. Moving the market

The markets showed some early strength following yesterday’s comeback rally, pushing our domestic TTI close to breaking above its long-term trend line.

Traders largely ignored the weak Consumer Confidence data, which revealed a drop in the near-term outlook for income, business, and job opportunities. The index fell to 92.9, below the expected 93.5, with future expectations hitting a 12-year low. Despite this, the markets remained resilient.

The primary focus, however, is on the upcoming tariffs. President Trump suggested that many countries might receive exemptions from reciprocal tariffs, reducing some of the anticipated impact.

By midday, bearish sentiment took over, causing the major indexes to surrender most of their early gains. Nevertheless, the session ended moderately in the green.

The S&P 500 closed above its widely followed 200-day moving average, while our Domestic TTI remained below its long-term trend line, with bond yields ending the session unchanged.

Gold advanced, Bitcoin remained stable, but the market overall was stuck in a holding pattern, lacking a clear bullish catalyst.

However, we could see significant moves in either direction due to the end-of-quarter rebalancing of pension and target-date funds.

1. Moving the market

Equities surged after the opening bell as reports suggested that Trump might delay some of his broad tariff plans. Traders and algorithms quickly shifted to “Buy” mode, fueled by hopes that a global trade war could be averted.

Trump has indicated that tariffs target any country imposing duties on U.S. imports. However, the Wall Street Journal noted that the tariffs might be narrower in scope, focusing more on specific industries rather than broad impositions, with some nations potentially being excluded.

While Trump may show more flexibility in his approach, the situation remains fluid. For now, the effect on major indexes is positive and supportive. The markets also received a boost from Fed Chair Powell last week, who commented that any negative impacts from Trump’s tariffs would likely be short-lived.

Despite mixed results from the Services and Manufacturing PMIs, bond yields rose, and the indexes closed at their session highs, driven by an explosive short squeeze. Tesla, which had been struggling, managed a 12% comeback following reports that the FBI launched a task force to investigate the terror attacks.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that inflation would be bumpy and not move dramatically towards its 2% target, which reduced expectations for rate cuts.

The dollar closed unchanged, gold slipped but found support at $3,000, and Bitcoin surged back above $88k to a three-week high.

Could this be the beginning of the next leg higher based on historical precedent?