Black Gold Becomes The Market’s Wrecking Ball

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks took another hit today, and the culprit wasn’t hard to find. Crude oil surged back above $100 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran conflict dragged into its seventh month, reigniting inflation worries and putting pressure on just about every risk asset.

The market largely shrugged off a benign PPI report. While wholesale inflation came in as expected, traders were far more focused on the combination of soaring oil prices and a 10-year Treasury yield pushing toward 5%, a level we haven’t seen in quite some time.

That’s not exactly the recipe equity bulls were hoping for heading into tomorrow’s CPI report.

The bigger issue is that higher energy costs have a way of working their way through the economy, and the market is beginning to wonder whether the Fed may need to keep its foot closer to the brake than previously thought. Futures are now assigning meaningful odds to another rate hike next week.

In the meantime, there was nowhere to hide. Gold lost its luster, bitcoin fell back below $77,000, and stocks absorbed another broad-based selloff.

It was one of those days when “black gold” acted less like a commodity and more like a wrecking ball.

Tomorrow’s CPI report now takes center stage. Could a cooler-than-expected inflation reading give investors something to cheer about and help salvage the week, or has the market become too focused on oil and rising yields to care?

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Stocks Slide While Gold Flashes A Bullish Signal

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks spent most of the day on the defensive as higher oil prices kept inflation worries front and center.

Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions pushed Brent crude back above $100 a barrel, and that was enough to keep traders reaching for the aspirin rather than the buy button.

Adding to the pressure, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed above 4.8%, giving stocks another headwind before the major indexes closed lower once again.

Meanwhile, the dollar and Bitcoin essentially ended where they started after a volatile session, while gold quietly stole a little of the spotlight by reclaiming $4,400 and flashing a bullish golden cross signal.

Now the market’s attention shifts squarely to inflation data, with PPI tomorrow and CPI on Friday.

After today’s action, it’s safe to say traders will be reading those reports more carefully than the fine print on a mortgage application.

Will inflation confirm the market’s fears, or hand investors a much-needed reason to breathe easier?

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Oil, Inflation, And Geopolitics Send Stocks Searching For Answers

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came out of the gate on the wrong foot and never really found their balance, as traders spent the day weighing escalating Middle East tensions against this week’s all-important inflation reports.

Rising oil prices stole the spotlight, with crude extending its rally and reminding everyone that inflation may not be quite finished with us yet.

That puts Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI reports squarely in focus. A hotter-than-expected CPI number could complicate the Fed’s path and reignite rate hike concerns, which is exactly what traders seem to be pricing for at the moment.

Adding to the list of worries, fresh trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada didn’t do sentiment any favors.

By the closing bell, stocks were firmly in the red as higher oil prices and rising bond yields kept pressure on risk assets.

The dollar drifted modestly lower, while bitcoin took investors on its usual roller-coaster ride before finishing below Friday’s close.

It was one of those sessions where caution was in demand and optimism felt a little overpriced.

The big question now: will inflation data calm investors’ nerves, or have the bears finally regained control of the narrative?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/04/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (223 vs. 219 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 4, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

THE FED JUST GOT MORE DATA… AND MORE REASONS TO STAY TOUGH

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

This morning’s jobs report was the story of the day. August payrolls came in at 162,000, far above expectations, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains surprisingly resilient.

That was enough to push bond yields higher and nudge Fed rate hike odds upward ahead of the September meeting.

At first, stocks didn’t like the idea of a more hawkish Fed and sold off. But by the closing bell, the market had largely steadied itself, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing little changed on the week.

Energy stocks were the standout winners, helped by record diesel prices that are reigniting concerns about inflation’s second act.

Elsewhere, the dollar took a hit, gold had a rough week, and Bitcoin briefly climbed above $82,000 before the jobs data reminded traders that interest rates still matter.

The bigger takeaway? Talk of stagflation is creeping back into the conversation as higher energy costs collide with signs of slower industrial growth.

Now, all eyes turn to next week’s CPI report. Today’s jobs number grabbed the headlines, but CPI could ultimately decide whether the Fed reaches for another rate hike or keeps its powder dry.

So, was today’s market reaction just a warm-up act before the main event?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/03/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 3, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.36% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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