ETF Tracker Newsletter For January 16, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

SILVER OUTSHINES AGAIN, BITCOIN HAS STRONGEST WEEK IN MONTHS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened lower and stayed soft, as traders digested President Trump’s latest Fed chair comments.

He basically said National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett might stay in his current role as top economic advisor instead of replacing Jerome Powell (whose term ends in May). That shifted prediction markets—former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh jumped ahead as the new frontrunner.

The pullback came after yesterday’s winning session, powered by chip stocks and Taiwan Semiconductor’s blowout Q4 report (35% profit jump). That momentum carried over from the U.S.-Taiwan trade deal announcement, where Taiwanese chip/tech companies committed to at least $250 billion in U.S. production capacity.

The week was a whirlwind: AI optimism resurged, geopolitical noise (Iran unrest, Greenland talks) flared up, tariff chatter continued, Fed independence worries bubbled, and earnings season started choppy.

Small caps soared on a massive ongoing short squeeze, the Dow and S&P dipped a touch, and the Nasdaq lagged. The Mag 7 once again underperformed the other 493 S&P names.

Bond yields rose, the dollar swung wildly but finished the week flat, gold rallied for the fifth week in six (despite today’s dump-and-pump), copper eased, but silver massively outperformed (+11%).

Bitcoin had its best week in three months, surging to a two-month high before settling around $95K.

After all the geopolitical headlines and a soft close like today, it feels like the market’s just taking a well-deserved breather… or could the uncertainty linger a bit longer into the new year?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/15/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, January 15, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.82% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Small Caps Squeeze, Silver $93.75 High – Metals Still Flexing

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes jumped right out of the gate, with banks and tech leading the charge as Wall Street shook off back-to-back losing days.

The real spark came from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) dropping another monster quarter—profit up 35% year-over-year—which lit a fire under the AI trade and boosted investor confidence.

Chip stocks were on fire: the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 3%, Nvidia and Micron each added more than 2%, and the whole sector rode the wave.

This happened even after President Trump signed a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors (though chips tied to U.S. tech supply-chain buildout are exempt—so markets mostly shrugged).

Oil prices helped too—Brent and WTI both slid more than 4%, easing inflation worries. Plus, jobless claims for the week ending Jan. 10 came in at 198,000 (better than the 215,000 expected), giving the jobs market another thumbs-up.

Small caps outperformed big time (thanks to another juicy short squeeze), even as bond yields ticked higher. The dollar did its usual pump-and-dump and ended flat.

Metals took a breather after recent fireworks—silver touched a new intraday high of $93.75 early but swung wildly and closed about unchanged. Bitcoin tested $98K overnight before fading back to $96K.

So, what’s the biggest risk for the global economy and markets in 2026? Goldman Sachs points to geopolitics as the top threat… but if history’s any guide, it’ll probably be something nobody saw coming.

With chip stocks roaring back, small caps squeezing shorts, and metals still holding strong despite a breather, this feels like the risk-on momentum is building again for 2026.

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Banks Drag Stocks Lower – Silver +7%, Gold Above $4,600 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks opened lower for the second straight day, pulling back further from recent record levels as traders chewed on a fresh batch of earnings reports and kept one eye on geopolitical headlines.

Wells Fargo was a big laggard, dropping more than 5% after posting weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue. Bank of America and Citigroup slipped too—even though they beat estimates—because the results weren’t strong enough to keep the market excited near all-time highs.

That added to their pain from Trump’s Friday call for credit card interest rate reform; Wells and BofA are both down roughly 7% for the week, Citigroup more than 6%.

Geopolitical noise didn’t help either: oil rose for a fifth day on worries about supply disruptions from civil unrest in Iran (a key OPEC player) and rising U.S.-Iran tensions. Plus, crunch talks are happening today between the Trump administration and officials from Greenland and Denmark over U.S. control of the territory.

By the close, those pressures kept the major indexes in the red, with the Nasdaq taking the hardest hit, the Dow holding up best, and small caps managing a small green finish.

The real bright spot?

Commodities kept shining. Silver exploded over 7% to punch through $92, gold flirted with all-time highs and closed above $4,600, copper added a solid +1.6%, and Bitcoin finally joined the party, climbing to a two-month high of $97.5K and eyeing $100K.

The commodity sector continues to steal the show almost every day—definitely the place to be right now.

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Silver Tops $89, Gold Hits Record – Metals Keep Winning

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market opened lower and pretty much stayed that way, dragged down early by JPMorgan Chase.

Traders were digesting the latest CPI inflation data (core up 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY—both below estimates) while weighing President Trump’s push for a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates.

JPMorgan’s CFO basically said the industry might fight back hard, sending the stock down more than 2%. Goldman Sachs followed with a 1%+ drop, and payment giants like Mastercard and Visa each slid around 5%.

The CPI reading (plus last week’s softer jobs report) reinforced the idea that the Fed might hold off on rate cuts at their next meeting. No big surprise—equities couldn’t shake the pressure.

In the end, the major indexes closed modestly lower. Bond yields eased, the dollar chopped sideways, and while Bitcoin and some metals finished higher, they all came off intraday highs.

Mega-caps did their usual dump-pump-dump routine with no clear direction. Gold touched a new record high before fading, and silver stole the spotlight again, topping $89 for the first time and closing up almost 2%.

To me, it feels like when stocks and most assets are drifting aimlessly, but silver’s still smashing records, the hard-asset bull is just doing its own thing… while the broader market might be getting a little tired and needs a fresh catalyst soon.

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Gold And Silver Explode As Powell Investigation Sends Shockwaves

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks stumbled out of the gate Monday after news broke that the Department of Justice had opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, marking what many see as an escalation in President Trump’s ongoing effort to pressure the central bank.

The headlines sparked a broad selloff early on, with the Dow down nearly 500 points and the S&P 500 off about 0.5% at the day’s lows. 

Still, the market managed to recover some ground as the session wore on, led by Small Caps, and boosted by solid moves in Walmart and a few large tech names.

Even so, traders were uneasy with Trump’s separate proposal to temporarily cap credit card interest rates at 10%, a move aimed at easing costs for consumers that critics say could choke off lending and hurt banks’ bottom lines. 

The uncertainty pushed investors toward safe havens. Gold surged more than 2%, while silver absolutely stole the spotlight, rocketing nearly 7% to a record high above $85.

Copper added more than 2%, though it remained overshadowed by silver’s breakout. The dollar slumped sharply, rate‑cut odds dropped, and bond yields crept higher. 

Interestingly, the “Mag 7” finally showed some staying power, outperforming the rest of the S&P 500’s 493 stocks for the first time in a while.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin finished the day higher after whipsawing in a wild pump‑and‑dump‑and‑pump sequence that mirrored the broader market’s volatility. 

As traders look ahead, many believe the next major driver will come from AI‑related capital spending by large cloud providers — but with metals flying, the dollar slipping, and the Fed caught in political crossfire, could this uneasy mix evolve into the year’s first major turning point for markets?

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