1. Moving the markets

The efforts by a few traders last week to push the markets higher on very low volume came to an end today, when the full staff returned, pushed the sell buttons, and pulled the rug out from under last week’s rally.  

The major indexes shifted into bearish mode, right after the opening bell rang, and never stopped thereby wiping out all the Thanksgiving week gains. Our pending “Buy” signal has therefore been put on the backburner for the time being, as recent upward momentum has now been neutralized (section 3).

This long Holiday weekend introduced more disruptions to the bullish sentiment, as China’s social unrest, caused by extreme Covid restrictions, had local governments tightening their control over the population. That destroyed reopening hopes and put a downer on the world’s second biggest economy in terms of production and shipping.

Domestically, we were treated with a barrage of hawkish messages from a variety of Fed speakers, which ZeroHedge summarized as follows:

• 0950ET *MESTER SAYS SHE DOESN’T THINK FED NEAR A PAUSE IN TIGHTENING, NEED TO SEE SEVERAL MORE GOOD INFLATION READINGS
• 1200ET *WILLIAMS SAYS FED STILL HAS MORE WORK TO DO ON INFLATION, FURTHER TIGHTENING SHOULD HELP REDUCE INFLATION
• 1200ET *BULLARD: RISK THAT FED WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ON RATES IN 2023, MARKETS UNDERPRICING RISK FOMC MAY BE MORE AGGRESSIVE, FED HAS `A WAYS TO GO TO GET TO’ RESTRICTIVE RATES, FIRST 250 BPS OF TIGHTENING WAS JUST GETTING TO NEUTRAL, TIME TO LET QT PROGRAM RUN FOR NOW; SO FAR, SO GOOD

This was the final nail in the bearish coffin, and down we went. Even the most shorted stocks were not squeezed today, so they followed their natural tendencies, namely lower.

Bond yields retreated with the 10-year ending just about unchanged at 3.68%, as the US Dollar rode a rollercoaster in the process reversing recent losses. Gold followed suit but ended the day lower.

The S&P 500 has reached another critical point, namely its 200-day M/A, which is now in striking distance. Will we see a “threepeat,” or will the index finally break through this stubborn resistance level and support the bullish meme?

Only time will tell.

1. Moving the markets

It was another choppy session, as the release of the Fed’s meeting minutes (FOMC) showed a mixed picture in terms of future rates hikes. The Central Bank noted that it was seeing some progress in its inflation fighting efforts while stating that “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate.”

That was the official statement, yet chairman Powell uttered these seemingly opposing words during the press conference:

“Okay. So, I would also say it’s premature to discuss pausing. It’s not something that we’re thinking about. That’s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. The last thing I’ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. I control those messages. That’s my job.”

There you have it. Nothing in terms of pausing or pivoting was mentioned by him, but traders took it as a positive, with the major indexes scoring their second consecutive day of gains.

On the economic side, we learned that New Home Sales unexpectedly jumped, Americans’ inflation expectations dropped at tad, Manufacturing and Services plunged toward recession territory, and the Labor Market weakened with continuing jobless claims hitting an 8-month high, as ZeroHedge pointed out.

A moderate short squeeze helped bullish sentiment, as did declining bond yields with the 10-year retreating to 3.70%, down almost 13 bps. The FOMC minutes and weak econ data pushed the US Dollar lower and Gold higher, with the precious metal recapturing its $1,750 level.

Looking at the big picture, ZeroHedge added:

Since last Thanksgiving the dollar is up around 10%, gold has held its value while stocks and bonds have crashed around 25-30%.

On Friday, we will see only an abbreviated market session, so I won’t write a commentary. However, I will be back this coming Monday to witness if the returning traders, well rested from the Holiday weekend, will push the “buy” or “sell” buttons.

1. Moving the markets

As I mentioned yesterday, with most traders being on vacation this week, reduced volume made it easier for the remaining crew to exuberantly push markets around and support the bullish cause. Looking towards the end of the year, hope that inflation might ease, and by association interest rates, was an underlying theme based more on wishful thinking than reality.   

Helping matters was the Wall Street crowd’s focus on a host of strong earnings and their positive effect on stock prices (Best Buy +11%, Abercrombie & Fitch +19%, American Eagle Outfitters +16%), as well as easing bond yields with the 10-year slipping to 3.77%.

As ZeroHedge reported, today’s Fed mouth pieces had this to say:

• Mester: “Given the high level of inflation, restoring price stability remains the number one focus of the FOMC…monetary policy entering a different cadence.” Translation – we are hiking no matter what, but the pace of hikes may slow.
• George admits Fed buying MBS stoked surging home prices, adding that it “could well take a higher interest rate for some time to convince households to hold onto savings.” Translation – we are hiking rates more and holding for longer.

In other words, a pause or pivot is nowhere to be seen.

After gaining for four days, the US Dollar managed to slide, while Gold ended just about unchanged.     

More earnings reports are on deck after the close today, along with econ data like initial jobless claims and PMI numbers. If there are no downside surprises, we might see today’s rebound get more support.

1. Moving the markets

The major indexes shed some more of their recent gains during this first day of a Holiday shortened trading week. Not helping the already jittery market were reports of China possibly ramping up Covid restrictions due to some additional deaths and the lockdowns spreading.

As a result, the Chinese Yuan plunged, and the US Dollar continued its 4-day uptrend.

That means the much hoped for reopening may not pan out as planned, thereby putting the discussion of a global economic recovery back on the front burner. Still, the recent bear market bounce may find some support in the form of reduced trading this week, as traders take time off, which can increase volatility due to lower volume.  

If there are no market news, rumors can give an assist. This was the case today, when speculation surfaced that OPEC+ was considering production hikes causing Crude Oil to tank, shortly after which the denial was published, which then created this silly chart.

The most shorted stocks continued their unwind process from the post-CPI squeeze, as ZeroHedge put it, which again tells me the importance a short squeeze has when to comes to creating or sustaining bullish momentum.

Bond yields went predominantly sideways, gold faded, and the Fed’s Terminal Expectation rate moved back to its cycle highs above the 5.08% mark. Again, the much hoped for pause or pivot (to lower rates) is nowhere to be seen.