Sunday Musings: A Protective TARP

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As I noted in last Friday’s market update, the major banks experienced a week of sharp stock losses causing B of A to look for more help from TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program).

Minyanville expanded further on the subject in “Bank of America Huddling under TARP:”

The phrase “buyer beware” no longer applies in the American banking system.

Last September, as the financial markets skidded out of control, Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain sought to keep his firm from going the way of rival Lehman Brothers by selling out to Bank of America (BAC). At the time, B of A chief Ken Lewis was touted as a shrewd opportunist who seized upon a desperate rival.

Now, it appears, Lewis is the one groping for a helping hand.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Treasury Department is preparing to offer up billions of dollars to help Bank of America complete the transaction. As in Citigroup’s (C) recent bailout, where the federal government assumed the risk for a pool of distressed assets, taxpayers are about to buy Merrill’s book of truly toxic debt.

Bank of America approached the Treasury Department in December, claiming it might have trouble closing the sale after learning Merrill’s fourth-quarter losses would be larger than expected. Fearing the deal’s collapse could inflict irreparable damage on the already wounded financial system, the Treasury is continuing to spend TARP money it doesn’t have. With the first $350 billion already allocated, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is dipping into funds earmarked for a second round of capital allocation that hasn’t yet been authorized.

The fact that Bank of America needs yet more money — on top of the $25 billion it received just last October — is evidence that, once again, regulators and bank executives have underestimated the scope of the debt crisis gripping the country’s financial system. Deleveraging is underway – and it’s gaining momentum. Nevertheless, lawmakers and regulators alike insist on using taxpayer money to try and slow down the accelerating juggernaut of bad debt.

To quote a recent op-ed in the Journal, which likened the government response to the current financial crisis to the circumstances described in Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged:

“Politicians invariably respond to crises — that in most cases they themselves created — by spawning new government programs, laws and regulations. These, in turn, generate more havoc and poverty, which inspires the politicians to create more programs . . . and the downward spiral repeats itself until the productive sectors of the economy collapse under the collective weight of taxes and other burdens imposed in the name of fairness, equality and do-goodism.”

The similarities are so striking, it almost seems like regulators are using Atlas Shrugged as a playbook for their policy response to the crisis. They must not have waded through all 1,000 pages to see how the story ended.

The thing that gets me is that failing companies are continuously being propped up instead of being left to go under. Case in point is Merrill Lynch (ML), which is now adding nothing but toxic obligations to the balance sheet of B of A. Consequently, tax payers are on the hook for over $100 billion dollars.

If ML had been left to go under, stronger competitors would have been able to pick up the valuable pieces in form of employees and clients and integrated them into their own operations therefore becoming stronger.

Since that did not happen, the weak have been artificially kept in business with the support of TARP while those entrepreneurs, who did not lose money and survived the various bubbles, now how have to compete with incompetent firms who for all intents and purposes should no longer be around.

Therefore the question in my mind remains as to how long can you go and prop up entire industries before the realization sinks in that it was all in vain—reality will catch up sooner or later.

You Are Not Liked

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Dr. Housing Bubble featured an interesting viewpoint in “Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Don’t Like you, Nothing Personal:”

In the investing world you learn to expect the unexpected. I think most of us can put our pride aside and realize that we are living in a very different financial world, one that has not been seen in over a generation. In these gut wrenching times, you might as well spend your money on going to Magic Mountain instead of playing the stock market. So many investing philosophies are being turned on their head. Does dollar cost averaging still make sense? Is having your money in the S & P 500 really mean you’re diversified? Is real estate the safest investment? I think these questions are making many over the counter top finance books seem obsolete.

I hate to break it to you but the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury really don’t like you. They view most Americans as hamsters that serve only one purpose, to shop and consume. You will never hear them trying to push an agenda that would encourage Americans to be savers or manage their money wisely. How can they? They don’t do it so for them to say this would be hypocritical. In fact, their policy actions including dropping rates to near zero put us in a perilous situation that now is looking more and more like Japan’s lost decade. We have Ben Bernanke saying this to an audience in London:

“In my view … fiscal actions are unlikely to promote a lasting recovery unless they are accompanied by strong measures to further stabilize and strengthen the financial system,” Bernanke said.”

This guy. He has already taken on over $2 trillion onto the books of the Federal Reserve with questionable assets and he is still asking for more. These are the actions of a monetary policy ideologue. He is going to have a tough time admitting that monetary policy is simply not helping anyone aside from his masters in the crony capitalist regime. The banks have done so well, that we even have Citi and Morgan Stanley merging brokerages. While people are being laid off left and right, we have a $2.7 billion deal going down. And make no mistake, Morgan Stanley is only doing this because the Fed and other government institutions are back stopping $306 billion in toxic assets. Bernanke then gives us another nugget of wisdom:

“Financial markets remain frozen partly because a “large quantity of troubled, hard-to-value assets” is still on institutions’ balance sheets, Bernanke said.

There are several ways to solve this problem, he said, all involving public funds.

The government could simply buy the troubled assets, or it could give asset guarantees and agree to absorb part of the prospective losses, he said.

“Yet another approach would be to set up and capitalize so-called ‘bad banks,’ which would purchase assets from financial institutions in exchange for cash and equity in the bad bank,” Bernanke said.”

Here we go with this stupid bad bank idea again. Keep in mind that Wall Street and banks have hidden the most insidious stuff and are only itching to load it off onto the American tax payer. The premise of the bad bank is such a stupid notion. You want to know a secret? We already have a bad bank. In fact, we have about 8,300 of them!

Propping up essentially insolvent banks will only waste money and postpone their inevitable demise. B of A has now requested (and is receiving) some additional $20 billion to complete their (stupid) acquisition of Merrill Lynch and to better digest their (even stupider) acquisition of Countrywide. Not only that, the U.S Treasury is providing them with a $100 billion “backstop,” to help swallow further anticipated losses.

This is how a previously sound bank has turned into a zombie corporation, whose stock price got absolutely hammered and is now trading around $7.

The business lesson learned is that if you are large enough you can be stupid and screw up big time; at least you will get bailed out. If you are a sharp and honest entrepreneur running a small business that is going through some difficult times, you’re on your own.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 1/15/2009

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My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

A continuation of last week’s downtrend had the bulls heading for the sidelines. All major indexes lost again.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs remains below its trend line (red) by -9.07% thereby confirming the current bear market trend.



The international index now remains -20.73% below its own trend line, keeping us on the sidelines.



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Surviving With Humor

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The markets took a big hit yesterday as the major indexes lost some 3%. That puts the S&P; 500 back to levels reached last at the beginning of December. Many buy and holders, who had counted on a continuation of the rebound, are certainly disappointed about the market direction so far this year. Sure, I’d be on edge too if I had to make up 50% of losses sustained in only 1 year.

With the markets in the doldrums, some readers focused on trying to find some humor in today’s environment. A difficult task indeed, but here are a couple of pictures that were sent to me made possible only because of Ponzi scheme uber-expert Bernie Madoff.


With many people and organizations being affected by the fallout of the alleged $50 billion scheme, here’s one suggestion for punishment:

I just couldn’t help myself today; I thought these were really funny. I’ll be back tomorrow with my more serious week ending commentary.

Who Is To Blame?

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Sure, after last year’s staggering losses, it’s only natural to see many investors on the prowl trying to find someone to blame for their life changing portfolio losses.

If you were working with a broker or financial planner, and they advised you to hang on to your bullish investments while the trends changed to a bearish scenario, they certainly deserve to be fired for their lack of knowledge and responsibility.

But how about mutual fund managers? Are they really at fault for their fund going down with the bear market? MarketWatch had some words on that topic titled “When to fire your fund manager:”

If you manage a department or run a business, common sense tells you that the best way to escape from a problem is to solve it. And yet, many managers avoid the issue of a worker or employee who is not living up to expectations. The longer managers wait to do an honest assessment and fix the problem, the more the sore festers and damage gets done.

Well, no matter what you do in your professional life, you are the owner/manager of your personal investment business. And that being the case, your start to 2009 means reflecting on a lousy 2008, which should lead you to one simple question:

Should I fire my mutual-fund manager?

Under most market conditions, a 40% annual decline would be horrible performance that is immediate cause for dismissal. In 2008, that kind of loss was average for equity funds. And while an equity manager who lost 30% or 35% clearly was “above average,” it’s hard to feel really good about those results.

When investments go down 40% to 50% and the market delivers a harsh reminder that diversification doesn’t work well in cyclical bear markets, human nature wants to blame someone for what went wrong. That puts every fund manager who delivered poor results — relative or absolute — on the chopping block.

And yet investors are clearly in deer-in-headlights mode, unable to escape this problem or solve it. The market is providing no real safe havens, and even past heroes and old standbys were taken for fools by this crisis. Top long-term managers like Dodge & Cox, American Funds, Fidelity Investments and many others got gassed in 2008; they were every bit as horrible and miserable as the rest of the crowd.

There weren’t any new heroes, either. Plenty of middle-aged investors can recall 1987 and remind you that Elaine Garzarelli — working for what was then Shearson Lehman — called the valuation bubble that mushroomed into Black Monday. Never mind that Garzarelli never proved to be more than a mediocre fund manager when she tried her hand at it — she was a bright light in a dark time, and investors found solace and profits in her advice before, during and after the crisis.

Today, it looks to the casual observer like Wall Street’s emperors are naked; you’ll have a hard time finding a Garzarelli-like figure, someone who earned stardom by getting 2008 right. Some perma-bears and newsletter editors helped a small-scale audience, but most Wall Street luminaries got 2008 wrong, which makes it hard to believe in them now.

Which brings us back to the question of whether you should fire your fund manager?

Traditionally, the most crucial question for evaluating a fund has been “Would you buy it again today?” Alas, market conditions actually pollute that query, since it is pretty hard to honestly answer that you’d repurchase a fund that just lost one-quarter of your money, even if that result was above average.

A better question, according to Michael Stolper, a San Diego-based investment adviser, goes like this: “If you were 100% in cash today and decided that it’s time to put your money back to work in the market, would you give it back to this manager or look for someone new?”

If you alone made the decision to hang on to losing funds last year, you have nobody else to blame but yourself. Most fund managers are required by their charter to be always invested in equities by some 90%. The consequences of this obligation can be devastating in a bear market as we’ve seen.

The question therefore should not be whether to give your assets to a certain manager, but what methodology will you employ to avoid a repeat disaster, if the markets head south again during 2009? That alone is the key issue.

Let’s say, the markets turn around and a new buy signal via our domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) is generated. I can assure you that my mutual fund selections will be strictly based on current momentum criteria and will in no way be influenced by what the fund manager did last year.

A bear market does not discriminate and all mutual funds/ETFs will go down to varying degrees. Changing only a fund manager will do nothing to avoid a repeat disaster; changing your investment methodology away from the mindless buy and hold will make all the difference.

Selling Is the Secret—Not Buying

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Al Thomas, author of the well known book “If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It,” wrote another interesting article this past weekend. Take a look:

Every year in the last issue of Forbes, Fortune, Money, Kiplinger and countless other publications the magazine mavens predict the best performers for the coming year.

It is almost a given they are always wrong.

During raging bull markets they don’t look so bad, but in sideways and bear markets they should have stayed in bed. This year’s bear had them hiding under their desks.

Fortune in the December 2007 issue had 100 no-load, low-expense ratio mutual funds. Of the 100 their pick for the best 6 were Artisan International (ARTIX), BlackRock Enhanced Income (BRISX), CGM Focus (CGMFX), FBR Small Cap (FBRVX), (Manning and Napier World Opportunities (EXWAX) and Oakmark Select (OAKLX).

These were the crème de la crème yet only the bond fund, BRISX (-14%) outperformed the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index that declined 36%. The experts picked those that were down from 40% to 51%.

Do not allow your broker or financial planner to come up with the sick story that your account beat the S&P; by a few points. He might think that is good, but you lost money. He had no plan to protect your savings.

Many people were down 50%. Don’t they realize the account must make 100% just to get back to even? If any broker allows a customer to lose this amount do you think he is smart enough to make 100% to get back to “even”? Las Vegas will take that bet any time.

Brokers and money managers are not taught money management. As a former brokerage company owner I can attest to knowing few brokers who know how to sell. This is especially true for mutual fund managers. Unfortunately many mutual fund charters require 90% of customers money to be invested at all times. There are many times when the market is going down there not only should be no buying, but the fund manager should be in cash. The customer will not be making money, but more importantly he will not be losing money.

The secret of stock market success is not buying – it is selling. Wall Street does not teach brokers to sell. Any investor who had a mutual fund this past year will corroborate that statement.

Any fool can be a smart (?) broker during a bull market. Few brokers know how to handle customer money during a bear market. It seems the worst of the bear is over, at least temporarily. Those who held their positions this long should probably stay in during this next run up. A broker with a strong technical background should be able to see the next top and have his clients run for cash.

It is extremely doubtful we will see DOW 14,000 again in our lifetime. This cyclical bull move will give an investor a chance to get back about 50% of what has been lost, if that.

[Emphasis added]

The emails keep coming in from investors who have lost (some with their financial planner’s help) 50% of their portfolio value last year. Some report that they have now given back all the gains ever made plus some of their principal.

After the 2008 debacle, it should have become obvious to the investing public that the art of selling in a timely manner is far more important than buying. I will take this thought one step further by saying that even if you make only mediocre returns during a bull market, as long as you don’t participate in bear markets (vial a sell stop discipline), you will come out ahead.

Here’s a simple example. Let’s say, you were right on with your fund/ETF selections and were able to compound your total portfolio at an annual rate of 10% for 7 years straight. That means your $100k initial portfolio value went to $200k. Like a real trooper, you held on to everything you bought through 2008 and subsequently lost 50% of your portfolio. You now have given back everything you made over the past 7 years and are now faced with a lengthy uphill battle of trying to recover your losses.

Given these facts, it’s obvious that you could have kept your money in the bank at 2%, and you’d be in better shape. From my viewpoint, selling has always been more important than buying. Unfortunately, many investors had to learn this simple fact the hard way.