Sector Breakout

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Despite the major domestic indicators having rebounded last week, we are still in a bear market with our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) being stuck below the trend line, as I pointed out last Friday.

However, some sectors are bucking the trend and are breaking out to the upside. VHT is one example and a reader had this to say:

Can you please tell us your thoughts on Vanguard Health care ETF with the symbol VHT?The price has just moved above the 200 day MA?

Should we buy this? Also, does the slope of the 200 day MA line make a difference? Positive slope versus flat versus negative slope?

Thanks for your time.

Let’s take a look at a 1-year chart:





The price in fact broke above its long-term trend line. To be more specific, and to use my 39-week average, it has broken above it by +3.05% as of last Friday. The momentum figures are positive with YTD being the only one still in negative territory.

I have found that the slope of the trend line has over time no effect on the outcome of taking a position. If you’re into sectors, this one would constitute a buy; however, you need to protect yourself against a reversal via my recommended sell stop discipline along with only a small portfolio allocation of some 5% to 10%.

This is important since this sector can be volatile. Back in March, it dropped over 17% off its high before finding a bottom.

I currently have no positions in VHT.

Sunday Musings: Covering your ARS

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Two of the heavyweights in investment banking, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, have been taken out to the barn and spanked because of improper sale of their ARS (Auction Rate Securities).

Bloomberg reports as follows:

Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank by assets, agreed to buy back or help clients unload as much as $19.5 billion in auction-rate securities and pay a $100 million fine to settle U.S. regulatory claims it improperly saddled customers with untradeable bonds.

Citigroup will buy back about $7.5 billion in securities from individual customers, charities and small businesses under a settlement with New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the Securities and Exchange Commission and a group of states, led by Texas, the SEC said in a statement today. It must also start “restoring liquidity” to more than 2,600 institutions holding about $12 billion of the instruments, the SEC said.

Citigroup is the first Wall Street firm to settle federal claims amid a probe into how banks sold auction-rate securities before the $330 billion market collapsed in February. The accord may set a precedent for negotiations with firms including UBS AG, which has been named in civil complaints by Cuomo and authorities in Massachusetts.

Citigroup agreed to buy back illiquid securities from about 40,000 customers by Nov. 5 and compensate clients who already sold their holdings at a loss, according to Cuomo.

The accord also requires that the New York-based bank make “best efforts” to help 2,600 institutions by the end of 2009, the SEC said. Cuomo reserved the right to take legal action, and the SEC may seek a fine, if the bank doesn’t do enough for those investors.

“We want to see what this situation does for the marketplace in general and then what kind of progress Citigroup is making,” Cuomo told journalists today.

Citigroup also agreed to reimburse refinancing fees to certain municipal borrowers that issued auction-rate securities through Citigroup after Aug. 1, 2007, according to a statement released by the bank.

Citigroup neither admitted nor denied allegations of wrongdoing.

“We are committed to continuing the many initiatives that we believe will provide liquidity to our auction-rate clients,” said Arthur Tildesley, chief administrative officer for Citigroup’s wealth-management division.

Citigroup estimated that securities eligible for the buyback have a face value of $7.3 billion and may be worth about $500 million less on the market than their purchase price. Under accounting rules, Citigroup may have to record a pre-tax loss to reflect the difference. The actual loss “will depend on the market value at that time and the amount of securities purchased,” the bank said in the statement.

Auction-rate securities are bonds or preferred shares whose interest rates are reset by periodic bidding run by dealers. Firms including Citigroup abandoned their routine role as buyers of last resort for the debt in mid-February as demand dried up, allowing the market to collapse and leaving investors stuck in what had been pitched to them as money-market-like instruments.

Yahoo had this update:

Citigroup (C.N) and Merrill Lynch (MER.N) said they would buy back billions of dollars of illiquid auction-rate securities from retail clients, and Citigroup agreed to pay a $100 million fine to settle charges it fraudulently misled investors about the debt’s risk.

Regulators said Citigroup would buy back auction-rate debt from about 40,000 retail customers, charities and small or mid-sized businesses by November 5. Citigroup agreed to fully reimburse retail investors who sold the debt at a loss.

The SEC said the bank would also use its “best efforts” to liquidate, by the end of 2009, an additional $12 billion of the debt held by more than 2,600 institutional investors.

New York and the North American Securities Administrators Association will split Citigroup’s $100 million fine.

Cuomo had accused Citigroup of wrongly telling customers the debt was safe, liquid and the equivalent of cash.

“This is not just a Wall Street issue, this is a Main Street issue,” Cuomo said at a news conference.

He said Thursday’s settlement “will help restore confidence in this market,” and added, “It does justice for consumers.”

Merrill said its buyback covers more than 30,000 clients.

“Our clients have been caught in an unprecedented liquidity crisis,” Chief Executive John Thain said. “We are solving it by giving them the option of selling their positions to us.”

Both companies got caught with their hands in a cookie jar and are offering to make good. Somehow Wall Street firms always seem to have the ability, when caught in the act of shafting, to simply get away by neither admitting nor denying allegations of wrongdoing, paying a pittance of a fine, after which all is forgotten and it’s business as usual.

While in this case there maybe more financial fallout because of the forced buyback offer, I have always wondered why these companies are held to a different standard than the rest of us?

Know When To Fold ‘Em

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Reader Mike decided to not to follow our last domestic Sell Signal (6/23/08), but he actually added to his investment positions. Here’s what he had to say:

I have been buying CGMFX over the last 6 weeks between $54 and as high as $60 per share. I have bought about $40,000 of it. It seemed to go up every time the S%P went down so I thought it was a good hedge. Lately, it has just been going down with oil prices and commodities.

Should I just wait it out and hold or sell? I know Ken Heebner is a good trader but even he seems to be struggling with the downward oil and commodity trends.

Now I feel like an idiot for buying it at its peak. Should I just get out now?

Mike obviously went against the major trend hoping that the dip would only be a small one. This actually has happened many times in the past as readers have tried to use pullbacks as buying opportunities only to be caught in a bearish downdraft.

If you put yourself in this position, there are two things you can do, and they depend on your risk tolerance:

1. Sell all holdings now and chalk up the result as an expensive learning experience, or

2. Sell 50% now and put a 5% stop under the balance. That way, you have protected half of your assets from further declines and, should the markets rally from here, you have the other half working in your favor.

While CGMFX is one of the better mutual funds in existence, it still is not a buy and hold forever. Major trend changes to the downside will pull the best managed funds into bear market territory as well so the best course of action is not to own them in this type of environment.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 8/7/2008

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

A volatile market with an upside bias gave the bulls the upper hand.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs remains below its trend line (red) by -1.30% thereby confirming the current bear market trend.



The international index now remains -6.63% below its own trend line, keeping us on the sidelines.



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

A Bear In The China Shop

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

With the Olympic Games being upon us, I was reminded of a reader’s comment last year. China’s ETF (FXI) had come off its high by 10% causing us to liquidate our positions. This reader wrote in to say that he would hang on to FXI until after the Olympics and then get out.

I have heard this argument before that investors tie their financial decision to some future event that most of the time has nothing to do with actual market behavior. Let’s take a look at 2-year chart of FXI:



The decision to hang on proved to be a costly one, since FXI has come off its high by over 40% and has shown tremendous volatility this year. Despite wishful thinking, and the fact that Olympic events at times can light the fire for an economic rebound, this is usually only a short-lived phenomenon and should not be used as an investment opportunity.

Trends don’t lie, they simply state facts as they are right now, and the fact is that FXI is in bear territory. Until it solidly breaks back above its long-term trend line, I would not even consider it.


Bulls On The Run

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The bulls partied and enjoyed a swig from the punch bowl after oil prices broke below $120/barrel and the Fed, as expected, left interest rates unchanged. Bargain hunters stepped in doing some buying while short-covering helped the bullish cause.

It’s not secret that the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Yesterday, they chose boosting the economy by not touching interest rates as opposed to raising rates to contain inflationary pressures from higher energy and food costs as well as support the ever sagging dollar.

While the rally seemed impressive, it did not change the underlying fact the trend is still stuck in bear market mode. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are now positioned as follows:

Domestic TTI: -2.51%
International TTI: -7.32%

It was definitely a feel good day for the bullish crowd and several newsletter readers emailed telling me that they had taken the up day to unload some mutual fund positions they neglected to sell when our last signal was generated on 6/23/08.

We need to see a lot more upside movement and a break above the long-term trend line before we can declare this to be a new bull market. Until then, this is nothing more than a bear market bounce.