Sunday Musings: Front Runner

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Reader Jeff submitted an interesting blog post dealing with an old problem that you may have thought had long been resolved. This piece was written by Jake Zamansky, a NY attorney and titled “Front Running and Institutional investors.” Here’s what he had to say:

You would think that institutional money managers, who have a fiduciary responsibility to their clients, would also avoid doing business with any firms that engaged in organized wrongdoing and ripped them off. But that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case. There have been repeated incidents where major Wall Street firms reportedly have traded in advance of major trades they were asked to execute for their institutional clients. This practice, known as front running, gives brokerage firms an unfair advantage because they have insider knowledge that a pending block order will likely cause a significant price swing.

The SEC reportedly is investigating whether Merrill Lynch was front running orders placed by Fidelity Investments, the massive mutual fund operator. If the allegations prove true, it won’t be the first time Merrill Lynch has been nailed for this infraction. In 1995 the firm was fined $10,000 and censured by the American Stock Exchange for “the practice of profiting on advanced knowledge of a planned transaction.” The piddling fine didn’t even cover the losses incurred by Merrill’s client and could hardly be considered a major deterrent. Whoever coined the phrase “crime doesn’t pay,” never worked on Wall Street.

But let’s not just pick on Merrill. Front running has long been suspected as a widespread practice at all the big brokerage firms. Yet institutional money managers continue to route the bulk of their trades through them, rather than support the various independent boutiques that have sprung up in recent years offering very sophisticated algorithmic trading capabilities. One of the reasons is that the big brokerage firms offer their institutional clients equity research, but we know that most of that research is hardly worth the paper it’s printed on. Another major reason is simply fear: In the words of one institutional money manager, “no one is going to get second guessed for routing an order through Goldman Sachs.”

Rest assured, even if the SEC finds that Merrill was front running Fidelity’s orders, nothing much will come of it. The matter will be settled by Merrill agreeing to pay a relatively insignificant penalty without admitting any wrongdoing. It will, of course, get to keep most of its ill-gotten gains. The SEC neither has the resolve, or the resources, to take on a big Wall Street firm.

Additionally, current news reports show that firms like Merrill Lynch continue to be involved in lawsuits alleging improper sales of investments. There seems to be no end in sight as to how brokerage firms repeatedly work for their own gains without having the client’s best interest at heart. In the case of Merrill, I suggest they rename their TV advertising campaign from “Total Merrill” to “Total BS.”

For more on this subject, be sure to read Mish Shedlock’s piece called “Merrill Lynch Opens Legal Hornet’s nest.”

The Last Hoorah

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Bond insurers have made front page news lately in the face of severe Subprime losses and their potential downgrade from ratings companies. Calculated Risk reports as follows:

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services today lowered its financial strength, financial enhancement, and issuer credit ratings on Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. to ‘AA’ from ‘AAA’ and its senior unsecured and issuer credit ratings on FGIC Corp. to ‘A’ from ‘AA.’ Standard & Poor’s also placed all the above ratings on CreditWatch with developing implications.

At the same time, Standard & Poor’s placed various ratings on MBIA Insurance Corp., XL Capital Assurance Inc., XL Financial Assurance Ltd., and their related entities on CreditWatch with negative implications. The ratings on various related contingent capital facilities were also affected.

Apparently that did not sit too well with MBIA, as the report continues:

Chief Executive Officer Gary Dunton mounted a spirited defense on a conference call, following MBIA’s quarterly earnings report, against “fear mongering” and “distortions’ that he said have contributed to last year’s dramatic stock-price decline. He also said that MBIA’s capital plan currently exceeds all stated rating agency requirements.

MBIA hasn’t been downgraded so far; this is just a move to CreditWatch with negative implications:

Despite the significant losses posted by the company, Mr. Dunton said, “there is nothing that we can identify that justifies the 80% drop in our stock price since last year.”

Hmm, what am I not seeing here? A company that has lost billions of dollars due to Subprime investments and the CEO can’t justify why the stock dropped some 80%? Maybe eating a little bit of humble pie would be a step in the right direction instead of sounding like a cornered rat moments before it’s being devoured. Or is a desperate offense a good defense?

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 1/31/2008

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My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Another interest rate cut was all the bulls needed. Despite negative economic news, the major indexes closed sharply higher.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs moved to +1.42% above its long-term trend line (red), back into bullish territory. To avoid a whipsaw signal, I will wait for further upside confirmation before moving back into the domestic market.



The international index dropped to -4.24% below its own trend line, keeping us in a sell mode for that arena.



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Testing Patience

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David Gaffen of the WSJ had this to say:

Don’t like what the stock market is doing? Wait a few minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately up 111 points, after losing nearly 200 points at one point earlier in the day.

Such swings have become commonplace in this period of increased volatility. Through the first six months of 2007, the Dow, on average, traded in a range of 111.69 points in any given day. By way of comparison, between the beginning of July and including today, the Dow has moved by an average of 198.62 points on any one trading day.

The volatility has only increased in the last month — during January, the average daily trading range for the 30-stock average has been 285.49 points, which includes today’s range, currently at 344 points.

What that means is the current wide swings are a sign that uncertainly in the market place about the major trend is here to stay for the time being. Eventually, a breakout will occur, either up or down, and a new major trend will be established. In the meantime, simply accept trading ranges of some 300 points as a temporary theme. The road ahead could remain rocky as David Nelson of Minyanville explains:

Without the wind at our back, making money and holding onto profits will be difficult at best as the wounds are fresh and will take some time to heal. The overhead supply of stock to be sold is large and getting larger. You can feel like you aren’t bullish enough when the market rocks and too bullish when the market rolls.

Investors are desperately searching for an investment theme that lasts for more than a few days. A change in leadership will probably lead us out but lately has the feel of one step forward and two steps back.

Most great investors will tell you not to panic. It’s good advice but it doesn’t just apply to panic selling. Yesterday was a buying panic. The market overdosed on “Fed cut euphoria” as investors went into a buying frenzy, fearful of missing the boat. By the end of the day we all had a hangover.

Let’s slow the process down and eliminate the day-to-day overreaction to every bit of news that hits the tape.

Read that last sentence again. Don’t get too caught up in day-to-day events and keep the big picture in focus. The big picture is that we try to get onboard major trends and avoid sideways patterns that serve no purpose other than to cause needless frustration.

A Non Event

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Despite all of the hoopla and anticipation of the Wednesday’s interest rate cut, the markets ended on a down note. In a way, it may have been a classic “buy the rumor sell the fact” type of outcome. Personally, I think it’s slowly sinking in that these unprecedented rate cuts of the past 8 days actually represent bad news about the health of the global and domestic financial markets.

The major averages spiked up after the announcement of a 50bp lowering of rates with the Dow gaining some 200 points before drifting into negative territory on the close. Apparently, the downside move was spurred by a news report that bond insurer FGIC was downgraded by Fitch from AAA to AA. The markets hit a glass ceiling and it was downhill from there.

So far, this week’s events have left our trading plans unchanged. The domestic TTI remains below its long-term trend line by -0.37% while the international TTI has retreated to -7.39%. Both are therefore in bear market territory, and I will look for more downside confirmation before initiating any short positions.

Right now, we’re safely on the sidelines. Friday’s employment report has the potential to throw the markets into a tizzy fit. I will watch the action but will sit on my hands until some major trend emerges.

A Gold Bubble?

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As you know from my recent posts and updates, we are still holding a small position (10% of portfolio value) in gold. With the financial markets mired in uncertainty, is there more upside potential for the metal or will the Fed’s easing eventually create a gold bubble?

Lance Lewis of Minyanville had this to say:

With the equity market now likely set up for some sort of bear market rally in the wake of the Fed detonating its 75 bp “nuclear weapon” on Tuesday, the “fear of the margin clerk” – which has weighed on gold and gold shares over the past week or so – should now be removed, and that opens the door for both to release to the upside and make new all-time highs very shortly. My own near-term target for the yellow metal is $1000+, but that’s just me.

Remember, the Fed is easing with gold at an all-time high. When has this ever happened in history? It hasn’t, because never before has the threat to the financial system been so horrific due to all the leverage and financial engineering that has built up over the past 25 years. To allow this to “unwind” (as it should have been allowed to years ago) is now virtually impossible due to the dire consequences involved.

Faced with that prospect as stocks began to crash and the two largest credit insurers were teetering on bankruptcy, the Fed was forced to ease 75 bps in a single day on Tuesday (and promise more easing to come), even as the equal-weighted CRB (CCI) was just a few percent off its all-time high and gold was at an all-time high. The result is going to be that Wall Street will now take that 75 bps and create more money and credit (i.e. “print money”), but the “liquidity” won’t go where the Fed wants it to go (i.e. the US credit markets).

Where it will go, however, is into gold and certain other hard assets, because this time around “printing money” is not going to blow an asset bubble that will support the US economy, unlike in 1998 (when the Fed created the stock bubble) and 2001-2003 (when the Fed created the housing bubble). Now all we are going to get is a collapse of the world’s fiat dollar-based monetary system, more inflation on top of a weak economy (i.e. stagflation), and a “bubble” in gold.

Predictably, the Fed has chosen to “run the printing press” and inflate its way out of the housing bust, and inflation is exactly what it will get for its efforts. If this thought process sounds new, it shouldn’t be, because I’ve been talking about how the Fed would inevitably respond to the housing bust and what the likely result would be for over a year. And I feel things continue to unfold pretty much to script…

While we have seen a lot of volatility in most orientations over the past year, my records show that the gold ETF (IAU) was one of the more stable investments as measured by my MaxDD% indicator. This measures the drop from the highest to the lowest point (Maximum Draw Down) over a certain period.

Over the past 12 months, the MaxDD% for IAU was only -7.65%, which occurred on 3/5/2007. Compared to the S&P; 500’s (IVV) MaxDD% of -13.51%, gold has displayed amazing stability and lack of volatility. This is not to say that this trend will continue but, given the overall global turmoil, there may be more upside potential. However, I will always apply my sell stop discipline in case the trend reverses all of a sudden.