No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 2/12/2009

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Disappointment over the lack of specifics regarding a banking rescue pulled the major indexes down.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs remains below its trend line (red) by -9.29% thereby confirming the current bear market trend.



The international index now remains -17.28% below its own trend line, keeping us on the sidelines.

For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Zigzagging Higher

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

After Tuesday’s sharp drop, the major averages tried to find some footing yesterday from which to move higher. It turned out to be a see-saw day, but we ended up slightly to the upside much to the relief of many investors. We now have to wait and see if these levels hold or if we are heading further south again.

All eyes are now on the compromise stimulus package, which will need to win congressional approval.

The big bankers faced some tough questions from Congress as to whether they’ve used the TARP funds appropriately or not. They all conceded, by putting on their politically correct face, that the economy would probably be in worse shape today if the TARP program had not been enacted in October. Yeah right, as opposed to saying that it was a complete failure?

Speaking of failures, here are some highlights from an article called “N.Y. attorney general blasts ‘secret’ Merrill bonuses:”

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has accused Merrill Lynch & Co. of secretly moving up its bonus payments to assure they were paid out to the firm’s executives before fourth-quarter losses — more than $15 billion — came to light.

Cuomo also detailed how the bonus pool was spread among staff.

He said that while the bonus pool encompassed 39,000 employees, the lion’s share went to a relatively small number of executives. “Merrill chose to make millionaires out of a select group of 700 employees,” Cuomo said.

Cuomo’s office determined that $121 million was doled out to the biggest four bonus recipients, who were not identified by the attorney general.

The next four biggest beneficiaries split a total $62 million in bonuses, while another six divvied up $66 million.

As to the size of individual bonuses, Cuomo said 14 staffers got bonuses of $10 million or more and 20 received bonuses of at least $8 million, while a group of about 200 got $3 million or more.

“These payments and their curious timing raise serious questions as to whether the Merrill Lynch and Bank of America boards of directors were derelict in their duties and violated their fiduciary obligations,” Cuomo said.

That’s nice. It supports my view that Merrill Lynch should have been left to die a peaceful death so that other businesses would have had an opportunity to pick up the leftover pieces of value, dissatisfied clients, for example.

As it turned out, taxpayers are now supporting their questionable marriage to Bank of America, and I have no doubt that this alliance is doomed to fail.

Stimulating The Bears

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Did you notice it yesterday morning? I sure did.

The sun was shining just a little bit brighter, the birds were chirping just a little bit louder and the wind was blowing just a little bit gentler. I felt calm and relaxed and assured that the world is now a better place. Strange feelings indeed, and then I realized what caused them: We now have a new stimulus package and all troubles are over.

Yeah right! It was only a dream.

Wall Street had no uncertain feelings as the deadly duo, the bank rescue plan along with the Senate’s approval of a huge stimulus bill, hit a brick wall and sent the bulls scrambling for cover. When all was said and done, the major indexes had lost 4% to 5% on the day, which wiped out just about all of February’s gains.

This sell-off can now almost be considered a reliable indicator as the markets reacted to the latest attempt to stabilize the economy the same way as they did the last eight times the government unveiled ideas to stem the crisis. Could there be a message here? Maybe doing nothing would be a better and cheaper option and would allow the markets to sort out things for themselves with the weak and insolvent companies falling by the wayside and the strong being able to utilize new opportunities.

For more on this insanity you might want to read Mish Shedlock’s article “Insanity Prevails.”

Just as you thought the markets were making some headway to the upside, a reality check pushed the major indexes back deeper into bear market territory. This is why my suggestion still holds that you always need to work with a sell stop should you have the overriding itch to engage in bottom fishing.

A Historic Buying Opportunity?

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Seeking Alpha featured “Have We Reached a Historic Buying Opportunity?” Here are the last two paragraphs:

The main thing I can say about the current environment, Matt, is though I can’t tell you what is running when or if we’re stuck in a 1-year rut or a 5-year rut, what I do know is that the general area we’re in is a historical buying opportunity: a once-in-your-lifetime chance to get your asset allocation plans squared away and really make sure you’re saving what you need to be.

Because we may go down more… we may not even have hit a bottom (though I, like Matt, do think we have), but anyone coming in anywhere down here is not going to be hurting at the current cost basis, if you’ve got a 10- or 20-year horizon, and I don’t care if you’ve got a value tilt, a growth tilt or are 50/50 on your U.S./international weighting.

It’s simply amazing to me that this author continues to harp on a once-in-your-lifetime buying opportunity by getting asset allocations set up and using a 10 to 20 year horizon.

Has nothing been learned from last year’s disaster? I wish the author would take the time and talk to some investors who saw their portfolios cut in half during 2008. These investors will have to spend the next 8 to 10 years just trying to make up losses. To ask them to return to mindless buy and hold investing while we’re still in the midst of a bear market simply borders on ignorance.

While you can get away with buy-and-hold for a while during bull markets, the problem always remains that there is no exit strategy involved to save your bacon if the markets tank. We’re on the dark side of the biggest credit bubble in history and to think that all is smooth sailing from here is simply not being in tune with reality.

I feel part of my job is to point out useless articles like the one above so that investors don’t make the same mistake again of trying to get front row seating on the Titanic.

It’s All Good, Right?

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The WSJ summed up last week’s market optimism in “It’s All Good, Right? Right?”

The indefatigable optimism of Wall Street is something to behold at times. The market has just been treated to the largest one month of layoffs since the dreary 1970s, which was on the heels of a slew of other global indicators that underscore the depth of the worldwide economic decline. And yet, markets have handled the news reasonably well over the past few days, putting together its strongest week so far this year.

Headed into Friday’s action, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index had gained 2.42% on the week, and is adding on further gains Friday despite the horrific employment news. The market has also shrugged off a release from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which noted that its composite leading indicators are at their worst levels since the 1970s, with most economies deemed to be suffering a “strong slowdown.”

“You gotta love the Street: two hundred S&P; CEO’s come out the last two weeks saying things are worse than expected, worse than they’ve ever seen, can’t say how bad it will get, and all we talk about is stabilization because pending home sales ticked up and ISM wasn’t in the thirties,” says Kevin Flynn, president of Avalon Asset Management in Lexington, Mass.

The bits of good news in the past two weeks have been minimal. They can be classified as opinion (the Institute for Supply Management’s surveys, along with Germany’s IFO survey of business sentiment, both of which showed improvement from extremely depressed levels) or hope (expectations for a stimulus package and further progress on the bad bank plan). That has lifted the spirits of investors, for as David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors in Vineland, N.J., says, “markets like clarity and certainty even when the policy is not the best.”

However, unlike in mid-November, sentiment indicators do not reflect the same level of worry that persisted during that volatile period. Certain sentiment indicators, such as Investor Intelligence’s bull-to-bear ratio, shows about an equal number of each, compared with late 2008, when bears were dominant. The equity put-to-call ratio still reflects a bearish position, but a less extreme one than at the end of last year, and volatility indexes have shown substantial declines — the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index was lately at 42.32, not far from the lows of the year.

“I think we’re going to carry on getting a relentless slew of extremely poor data, but as you know in these bear markets, people latch on these things and get a bear market rally going, and then the weight of bad news crushes it again,” says Albert Edwards, global strategist at Societe Generale in London.

[Emphasis added]

That’s my belief as well as I pointed out in Friday’s commentary. If you get sucked into this rally, get your ego out of the way and be big enough to admit that you could be wrong by using a sell stop on your positions to minimize losses should the trend head back south again.

Once realization sinks in that this stimulus package will have little effect on pulling the economy out of its doldrums, the drop in the market will be fast and furious. Remember the first $350 allocation of TARP money? Down the drain with nothing measurable to show for.

Sunday Musings: Taking A Stance

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

As I was reading a MarketWatch article, I came across a comment section, where someone posted a fascinating story regarding one of the greatest responses to the request for bailout money in the automobile industry.

As a supplier for the former Big 3, this man received a letter from the President of GM North America requesting support for the bailout program.

While I have not been able to verify the accurateness, the response allegedly written by Gregory Knox, President of Knox Machinery Company, has to go down in history as one of the most straight forward and honest replies of a man taking a stance.

It’s a bit lengthy but worth the read:

Gentlemen:

In response to your request to contact legislators and ask for a bailout for the Big Three automakers please consider the following, and please pass my thoughts on to Troy Clark, President of General Motors North America …

Politicians and Management of the Big 3 are both infected with the same entitlement mentality that has spread like cancerous germs in UAW halls for the last countless decades, and whose plague is now sweeping this nation, awaiting our new “messiah”, Pres-elect Obama, to wave his magic wand and make all our problems go away, while at the same time allowing our once great nation to keep “living the dream”. Believe me folks, The dream is over!

This dream where we can ignore the consumer for years while management myopically focuses on its personal rewards packages at the same time t hat our factories have been filled with the worlds most
overpaid, arrogant, ignorant and laziest entitlement minded “laborers” without paying the price for these atrocities, this dream where you still think the masses will line up to buy our products for ever and ever.

Don’t even think about telling me I’m wrong. Don’t accuse me of not knowing of what I speak. I have called on Ford, GM, Chrysler, TRW, Delphi, Kelsey Hayes, American Axle and countless other automotive OEM’s throughout the Midwest during the past 30 years and what I’ve seen over those years in these union shops can only be described as disgusting.

Troy Clarke, President of General Motors North America, states: “There is widespread sentiment throughout this country, and our government, and especially via the news media, that the current crisis is completely the result of bad management which it certainly is not.”

You’re right Mr. Clarke, it’s not JUST management, how about the electricians who walk around the plants like lords in feudal times, making people wait on them for countless hours while they drag a** so they can come in on the weekend and make double and triple time for a job they easily could have done within their normal 40 hour work week.

How about the line workers who threaten newbies with all kinds of scare tactics for putting out too many parts on a shift and for being too productive (We certainly must not expose those lazy bums who have been getting overpaid for decades for their horrific underproduction, must we?!?).

Do you folks really not know about this stuff?!? How about this great sentiment abridged from Mr. Clarke’s sad plea: “over the last few years we have closed the quality and efficiency gaps with our competitors.” What the hell has Detroit been doing for the last 40 years?!? Did we really JUST wake up to the gaps in quality and efficiency between us and them? The K car vs. the Accord? The Pinto vs. the Civic?!? Do I need to go on? What a joke!

We are living through the inevitable outcome of the actions of the United States auto industry for decades. It’s time to pay for your sins, Detroit.

I attended an economic summit last week where brilliant economist, Alan Beaulieu, from the Institute of Trend Research , surprised the crowd when he said he would not have given the banks a penny of “bailout money”. “Yes, he said, this would cause short term problems,” but despite what people like politicians and corporate magnates would have us believe, the sun would in fact rise the next day and the following very important thing would happen, where there had been greedy and sloppy banks, new efficient ones would pop up; that; is how a free market system works, & it does work if we would only let it work”.

But for some nondescript reason we are now deciding that the rest of the world is right and that capitalism doesn’t work – that we need the government to step in and “save us”. Save us my a**, Hell – we’re nationalizing and unfortunately too many of our once fine nation’s citizens don’t even have a clue that this is what is really happening. But, they sure can tell you the stats on their favorite sports teams, yeah – THAT’S really important, isn’t it?

Does it ever occur to ANYONE that the “competition” has been producing vehicles, EXTREMELY PROFITABLY, for decades in this country?… How can that be??? Let’s see: Fuel efficient! Listening to customers! Investing in the proper tooling and automation for the long haul!

Not being too complacent or arrogant to listen to Dr. W. Edwards Deming four decades ago when he taught that by adopting appropriate principles of management, organizations could increase quality and simultaneously reduce costs. Ever increased productivity through quality and intelligent planning! Treating vendors like strategic partners, rather than like “the enemy”! Efficient front and back offices! Non union environment!

Again, I could go on and on, but I really wouldn’t be telling anyone anything they really don’t already know down deep in their hearts. I have six children, so I am not unfamiliar with the concept of wanting someone to bail you out of a mess that you have gotten yourself i nto – my children do this on a weekly, if not daily basis, as I did when I was their age. I do for them what my parents did for me (one of their greatest gifts, by the way) – I make them stand on their own two feet and accept the consequences of their actions and work through it. Radical concept, huh? Am I there for them in the wings? Of course – but only until such time as they need to be fully on their own as adults.

I don’t want to oversimplify a complex situation, but there certainly are unmistakable parallels here between the proper role of parenting and government. Detroit and the United States need to pay for their sins. Bad news people – it’s coming whether we like it or not. The newly elected Messiah really doesn’t have a magic wand big enough to “make it all go away.” I laughed as I heard Obama “reeling it back in” almost immediately after the final vote count was tallied, “we really might not do it in a year or in four”. Where the Hell was that kind of talk when he was RUNNING for office.

Stop trying to put off the inevitable folks. That house in Florida really isn’t worth $750,000. People who jump across a border really don’t deserve free health care benefits. That job driving that forklift for the Big 3 really isn’t worth $85,000 a year. We really shouldn’t allow Wal-Mart to stock their shelves with products acquired from a country that unfairly manipulates their currency and has the most atrocious human rights infractions on the face of the globe. That couple whose combined income is less than $50,000 really shouldn’t be living in that $485,000 home.

Let the market correct itself folks – it will. Yes it will be painful, but it’s gonna’ be painful either way, and the bright side of my proposal is that on the other side of it all, is a nation that appreciates what it has and doesn’t live beyond its means and gets back to basics and redevelops the patriotic work ethic that made it the greatest nation in the history of the world, and probably turns back to God.

Sorry – don’t cut my head off, I’m just the messenger sharing with you the “bad news”. I hope you take it to heart.