6 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 6/14/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The continued sell-off, saved by yesterday’s rebound, caused a shift in YTD performance of our various portfolios. The income portfolio (#5) moved back into the #1 spot with a gain of +4.89%, which was followed by the #3 portfolio with +4.79% and the #1 portfolio +4.28%.

VEU (Foreign Large Blend) triggered its trailing sell stop and was sold on 6/13/11. This affected the holdings in portfolios #2, #3 and #4. With the markets showing continued weakness, I will wait before replacing this position.

We also came close to liquidating our holding in VDE (Energy), which had clearly pierced its 10% trailing sell stop. Thanks to yesterday’s rally, we dropped back below it and lived another day to talk about it.

Again, the idea behind these models is not for you to be invested in the top performer but in a portfolio that represents ‘your’ personal risk tolerance – and not someone else’s.

Take a look at this week’s numbers:

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Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 6/13/2011

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Amazingly, the continued sell off pushed all of last week’s equity mutual fund listings off the report and further below the long-term trend line (cutline) to a point where they have slipped below the -20 position.

All of them were replaced by new weak equity funds dropping in from a level above the highest featured +20 spot. The number of funds having lost momentum can be seen by the very narrow range of their respective positions to the trend line. This week’s +20 listing, APGAX, sits only +0.09% above the trend line, while the worst fund, SWMSX, is located only -0.13% below it.

One look at the DD% (DrawDown) column on the right hand side tells the story better than any picture could, as more and more funds have broken through their 7% trailing sell stop levels.

Take a peek at this week’s cutline report:

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Major Market ETFs Move Sideways

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Despite a nice start to the upside, the major markets ETFs got stuck stuck and went nowhere after meandering around the unchanged line all day.

In accordance with our sell stop discipline, we sold VEU, which affected several of our model portfolios, as you will see with the next report due out on Wednesday. A few selected mutual funds were liquidated as well.

Our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) improved slightly but still remained below its long term trend line by -0.64%.

As I posted Friday, I will not issue an all-out sell signal until this indicator clearly stays below the trend line. By holding out a few extra days, I am hoping to avoid a potential whip-saw signal, should the markets suddenly return to rally mode.

The domestic TTI slipped a little but remains at +2.00%.

Stay tuned for further updates.

ETFs On The Cutline – Updated through 6/10/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

The selling continued this past week and improving equity momentum numbers were nowhere to be found. Most of the ETFs we discussed in last week’s report disappeared from the radar by sinking below the -20 position. New ETFs dropped in from a level above the +20 reading and are threatening to break the trend line to the downside.

Here’s where some of the major index ETFs ended up:

IOO (S&P Global 100) +16

EFA (Foreign Large Blend) +11

BRF (Brazil Small Cap) +9

IWM (Russell 2000) +7

VEU (Foreign Large Blend All World ex-U.S.) -16

VEA (Foreign Large Blend Europe/Pacific) -18

Please note that the first 4 have not only triggered their trailing sell stops (DD% column) but are hovering above their long-term trend line (cutline) by less than 0.5%. Any further market slippage will push these indexes into outright bear market territory, just like it already happened with VEU and VEA.

Here’s this week’s report:

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Last Week’s Lessons: ETF News And Blog Posts

Ulli ETF News Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the topics that I posted to my blog during week ending on 6/12/2011.

Continued downward momentum pushed our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) to the verge of a sell signal. Stay tuned for the latest blog updates as the new week gets underway.

My published Cutline tables and Model ETF Portfolios can give you an assist by indentifying weakness and strength in various market segments so that you can make better investment decisions by avoiding exposure in those areas that are trending down.

This week, we covered the following:

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Sunday Musings: ETFs In Outer Space

Ulli ETF News Contact

This is more of a personal story than one about hard hitting ETF facts.

You may have followed the current space flight, which left earth on June 7 from Kazakhstan. The spacecraft Soyuz was launched with 3 astronauts, a Russian, a Japanese and an American by the name of Mike Fossum.

The mission is to rendezvous with the space station and relieve the crew that has been orbiting for some 6 months. Their anticipated stay in space will also be about 6 months.

Mike Fossum happens to be a long-term reader of this blog and newsletter and is also a client. Before his departure, we discussed his adventure in space, and he assured me that he will have regular email access and will be able to send and receive email 3 times daily. As his time allows, he will be reading my musings about ETFs in outer space.

I got a brief note from him on Friday, after he had arrived at the space station, which said:

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