Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 6/20/2011

Ulli Mutual Funds On The Cutline Contact

Following our International Sell signal last week, more foreign mutual funds succumbed to selling pressure, despite yesterday’s bounce, and have slipped into bear market territory. Some of the big names from last week are:

Fidelity International Diversified (FDIVX), which fell from +11 to below the -20 position, while the Vanguard International Stock Index (VGTSX) followed suit by moving from +10 to below the -20 spot.

Dropping in from a level above the +20 listing was T. Rowe Price International (TRIGX), which settled at -1.

It confirms my current view that broadly diversified international funds/ETFs are not the place to be at this time. Take a look at the report and note the other contenders that slid below the cutline:

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated through 6/17/2011

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With the International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) having signaled a ‘Sell’ last Wednesday, can the domestic TTI be far behind?

Judging by the action around the current ETF Cutline report, only a substantial rebound with legs may be able to stem the slide and reinstate upward momentum.

Since the last report, several additional major indexes have slid below their long term trend line, even though a week ago they were still solidly entrenched in bullish territory. Holding its ground, but slipping towards the cutline, was the Global S&P 100 (IOO), which dropped from a +16 to a +13 position, while the Russell 2000 retreated to -2 from +7.

Dropping in from a level above the listed +20 ETFs, were the following:

IWZ (Russell 3000 Growth) +11

IWF (Russell 1000 Growth) +9

TMW (Wilshire 5000) -3

SPY (S&P 500) -8

All of the above, except SPY, have triggered their 7% trailing sell stop points and should be sold. As the table shows, these 4 ETFs are tightly hovering around the cutline by less than ¼%. Take a look at the table, and then I’ll tell you the magic number to watch for this coming week:

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Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts

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In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the topics that I posted to my blog during the week ending on 6/19/2011.

Downward market momentum pushed our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) below its long-term trend line into bear market territory generating a Sell for that area, as I posted last Wednesday.

Will the Domestic TTI follow? While that is still unclear right now, I will report the latest updates as they become relevant. Stay tuned.

My published Cutline tables and Model ETF Portfolios can give you an assist by indentifying weakness and strength in various market segments so that you can make better investment decisions by avoiding exposure in those areas that are trending down.

This week, we covered the following:

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Sunday Musings: 3 Fund Managers Are Missing The Mark

Ulli Mutual Fund Managers Contact

Here’s an interesting article on the subject of fund managers, which I have talked about on various occasions over the years. First, take a look at some highlights from “Berkowitz, Heebner and Miller in tight battle—for last place:”

Three famed stock-pickers having a dismal year so far, with big bets crapping out; still time to be right, however.

Bruce Berkowitz, Kenneth Heebner and Bill Miller, three of the best-known U.S. stock pickers, are competing for last place this year after their bets on an economic expansion backfired.

Funds run by Berkowitz of Fairholme Capital Management LLC, Heebner of Capital Growth Management LP and Miller of Legg Mason Inc. (LM) are the three worst performers among large diversified U.S. mutual funds in 2011, according to data from Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. The funds lost 11 percent to 12 percent through June 9, compared with a gain of 3.4 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

“People assume because certain managers have had good streaks that they are always going to be a step ahead of the market,” Russel Kinnel, director of mutual fund research at Morningstar, said in a telephone interview. “It never works out that way.”

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ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 6/17/2011

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Here is a quick review of the past week’s winners and losers from my High Volume ETF Master list:

Resisting the trend changes last week were the retail ETF (XRT) and the Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ).

Please note that the biggest loser was the U.S. Gas fund (UNG), which I featured recently. While it broke above its long term trend line for the first time in years, I sidestepped the opportunity due to its high risk.

As it turns out, UNG retreated again below its long term trend line, and it appears that the break out to the upside was just another head fake.

Disclosure: No holdings

Reader Q & A: Setting Up An ETF Model Portfolio Template

Ulli Reader feedback Contact

Several readers have emailed wanting to know if a template for the ETF Model Portfolios was available and/or what it would take to do the daily updates. Here’s what Dan had to say:

Are the spreadsheets for your ETF Model Portfolios available in template form somewhere on your website? Or do you suggest that readers draw them up on their own? Also, is it right that you update the prices from Yahoo Finance? How much of the work must be done manually, such as setting the new highs for each fund or ETF?

There is no template available and you would need to set up you own on a spreadsheet using my matrix as an example.

If you want to follow all 6 ETF model portfolios on a daily basis, you should first set up all ETFs as a portfolio in YahooFinance. The prices on that list can then be downloaded as a spreadsheet and pasted into your personal worksheet.

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