6 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 6/28/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

With the markets bobbing and weaving, but going nowhere since last Tuesday’s close, our ETF Model Portfolios followed the general trend of the major indexes, but headed slightly lower.

In terms of YTD performance, there was no change in the ranking food chain, as the #3 portfolio continued to have the edge with #1 in the second position.

Again, the idea behind these models is not for you to be invested in the top performer but in a portfolio that represents ‘your’ personal risk tolerance – and not someone else’s.

Take a look at this week’s numbers:

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Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 6/27/2011

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Despite yesterday’s rebound, which faded towards the close and was accompanied by low volume, improvements around the cutline (trend line) were negligible. Last week’s featured widely held international funds, FDIVX, VGTSX and TRIGX, slipped further down the rankings and ended up somewhere below the -20 position.

The international Sell signal remains intact as our International TTI (Trend Tracking Index) has settled at -1.68% below its trend line as of yesterday’s close. It confirms the continued weakness in that arena, while domestically we are still showing a little more strength with our Domestic TTI still hovering +2.27% above its respective trend line.

Take a look at this week’s report and notice the worsening DrawDown percentages in the DD% column, with many funds either already having triggered their trailing sell stops, or have come close to it:

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated through 6/24/2011

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Despite the markets closing fractionally higher from a week ago, more slippage and juggling around the cutline was evident. The position improvements were minor with heavyweight TMW (Wilshire 5000) inching back to +4 from last week’s -3.

VTI (Total Market Index) dropped in from a level above +20 and slipped below its line to a -4 position. VUG (Vanguard Growth) rallied somewhat to settle at -9 from a previous -15.

However, take a look at the %M/A column, which clearly shows that the breaks above and below the trend line are occurring at fractional percentages, which means that any move in the market can easily reverse their current positions.

Nevertheless, momentum continues to weaken and is bringing more ETFs to the verge of breaking their respective trend lines and moving into bearish territory. At the same time most of their trailing sell stops (DD% column) have been or are close to being triggered.

Take a look at the table, and then I’ll review again the most watched trend line this upcoming week:

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Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics that I posted to my blog during the week ending on 6/26/2011.

With market volatility continuing to take center stage, anything is possible. If the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average gets decisively broken to the downside, watch out, because our Domestic TTI is likely to follow. Stay tuned for the latest blog updates, if/when this event actually occurs.

My published Cutline tables and Model ETF Portfolios can give you an assist by indentifying weakness and strength in various market segments so that you can make better investment decisions by avoiding exposure in those areas that are trending down.

This week, we covered the following:

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Sunday Musings: Still Not Getting It

Ulli Sell Stops Contact

Recently, the WSJ (subscription required) featured a piece with the title “Unstable Condition.” Let’s look at a few highlights:

Q: Are there ways an investor can protect against a rise in the market’s volatility—or even profit from it?

A: Investors have endured a bumpy few years. The market tumbled in 2008, then rose sharply in the subsequent two years, leaving some investors with virtual whiplash.

Now, with markets uncertain and growing fears of a new economic slowdown, some investors are searching for ways to protect their portfolios from a new bout of volatility. And some are even looking for ways to profit from renewed turmoil.

The traditional advice for those seeking shelter is to create a diversified portfolio featuring companies in stable businesses such as tobacco, utilities and consumer staples, or to shift into bonds and dividend-paying stocks. But the market downturn in 2008 hurt all kinds of companies and corporate bonds, including those that seemed safe. Indeed, there’s evidence that markets around the world are more in sync than ever, making it harder to escape downturns.

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ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 6/24/2011

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Here is a quick review of the past week’s winners and losers from my High Volume ETF Master list:

Despite rallies and sell offs, there will always be some investment arenas that will resist the general trend of the market and head higher no matter what.

Unfortunately, as we’ve seen in the past, this usually is a temporary phenomenon with potentially opposite results next week. The five top listing on the plus side did well, but their weak M-Index numbers indicate that they too have been affected negatively by downside momentum.

Disclosure: No holdings