ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 9/23/2011

Ulli ETF Leaders & Laggards Contact

Here is a quick ETF review of the past week’s winners and losers from my High Volume ETF Master list:

With global markets in sharp sell-off mode all week, it’s no surprise to see a flight to safety, especially into U.S. Treasuries and the good old U.S. dollar. When all else fails, and uncertainty races to new highs, the long for dead declared dollar does not seem so bad after all.

It’s been my long-term belief that no matter how bad things are in the world, they will always be better here in the U.S., although it may take a global crisis for this realization to sink in.

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09-23-2011

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, September 23, 2011

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/09/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-9222011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, September 23, 2011

A COMATOSE BULL

What a difference a week makes. Last Friday, the major indexes had finished managing a tremendous rebound, only to see it evaporate, and then some, during the past 5 trading days, with the S&P 500 giving back -6.58%.

The interesting part during this world wide sell fest was that many big players were forced to liquidate positions to raise cash and to meet margin calls, which pulled the rug out from under the commodities sector.

Especially hard hit were gold and silver with gold falling 9.6% for the week and silver dropping an astonishing 26.3%. The flight to safety did include predominantly U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. For more specific market commentary, please review my daily blog entries.

Since gold and silver represent about 25% of our core holding PRPFX, that fund got clobbered at a rate of -6.23%, almost matching the S&P 500. PRPFX has now come off its high by -7.69%, which puts us into sell territory, a position that I have not seen with this fund since the middle of 2008.

Barring any huge rebound in the metals early next week, I will reduce our exposure to PRPFX; some holdings will be sold 100%, and others be reduced or possibly hedged, depending on a client’s risk tolerance.

I would have expected gold to be one of the few asset classes that are sought out during times of turmoil, but apparently not this week. We may see resurgence in gold in the future, but that is guess work at this time. Right now, the bulls are simply comatose.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) confirm the move deeper into bear market territory, as today’s closing numbers show:

Domestic TTI: -0.32% (last week +2.25%)
International TTI: -14.07% (last week -9.37%)

While the Domestic TTI hovers in bear territory, it has only crossed the line by a fraction of a percentage. With the European debt situation showing no signs of improvement, it’s only a matter of time before a serious event takes place and further affects world markets.

That is the moment in time where I would expect gold to become the “uncertainty play” again. However, there is no guarantee that this will happen, as current events confirm to me that we indeed have entered unchartered territory.

Thus, the best rule I can share with you, if these lower market levels tempt you to do some bottom fishing: “If in doubt, stay out!” That goes right along with “I’d rather be out, wishing I was in, then being in, wishing I was out.”

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Americo:

Q: Ulli: What is the trailing stop for the fund PRPFX? I agree with you that it is a great fund for any situation.

A: Americo: Well, it’s good for “almost” any situation. The sell stop is 7% off its high since you bought it.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, September 23, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/09/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-9222011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, September 23, 2011

A COMATOSE BULL

What a difference a week makes. Last Friday, the major indexes had finished managing a tremendous rebound, only to see it evaporate, and then some, during the past 5 trading days, with the S&P 500 giving back -6.58%.

The interesting part during this world wide sell fest was that many big players were forced to liquidate positions to raise cash and to meet margin calls, which pulled the rug out from under the commodities sector.

Especially hard hit were gold and silver with gold falling 9.6% for the week and silver dropping an astonishing 26.3%. The flight to safety did include predominantly U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. For more specific market commentary, please review my daily blog entries.

Since gold and silver represent about 25% of our core holding PRPFX, that fund got clobbered at a rate of -6.23%, almost matching the S&P 500. PRPFX has now come off its high by -7.69%, which puts us into sell territory, a position that I have not seen with this fund since the middle of 2008.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 9/22/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, September 22, 2011


If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/9/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. I will not issue a new Buy signal until this index has clearly pierced the trend line to the upside and has remained there.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken back below its long term trend line (red) by -0.10%.

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Global ETFs Hammered; Domestic TTI Breaks Back Into Bear Territory

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Please note that Gold and Oil prices in above chart reflect the evening session]

Today, there was simply no place to hide, unless you were invested 100% in U.S. Treasuries and/or some selected Bond ETFs. Just about all other asset classes got taken to the barn and spanked in no particular order.

It was relentless selling around the globe with the Dow being down at one point by over 500 points. The only positive was that the major indexes managed a rebound towards the end of the session and closed up from their worst levels of the day.

You could call it a perfect storm, as a variety of news items combined forces and left the bears pounding their chest in victory.

Fed chairman Bernanke’s comments on Wednesday about “significant downside risks” to economic growth” including “strains in global financial markets” were stronger words as those used in the past and instantly shifted traders’ worries into high gear. As a result, the Dow dropped over 300 points right at the open, and it went downhill from there.

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High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 9/21/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

With yesterday’s sell off, as a result of the Fed’s “stimulus” not being perceived as large and dramatic enough, the S&P 500 has given back -1.85% since last week’s report.

This weakness was immediately reflected in the momentum numbers and affected rankings above and below the cutline. We held steady in terms of positioning, as only 7 ETFs remain above the line and in bullish territory, while all others roam around with the bears below the line.

As I mentioned last week, despite the various rebound attempts, weakness prevails in the equity arena. I still consider the current market environment to be a traders market and not one for long term investors due to its extreme volatile nature. A long term trend in either direction can simply not yet be identified without wild guesswork.

To repeat, the High Volume ETF Cutline report includes all ETFs above and below the cutline (trend line). To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations.

Take a look at the most recent ETF Cutline Report:

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