ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 9/9/2011

Ulli ETF Leaders & Laggards Contact

With Europe capturing most of the attention, although negatively, it’s no surprise that this area dominates the Laggards column.

With the Swiss attempting to peg their Francs (FXF) to the Euro, they took the top spot on the downside with a loss of -10.66%. Currency interventions rarely last for any length of time before they resume their natural trend. Time will tell if that will be the case again.

All other Laggards were individual European countries as well as Europe as a whole, when measured by VGK, which represents some 467 common stocks in 16 countries.

On the Leaders side, we had a shift from last week, as the U.S. Dollar was the beneficiary of the European debt saga, so it occupies the #1 spot. However, please note that UUP still hovers below its respective long-term trend line, which means it still has a ways to go before I would consider it as a ‘Buy.’

While UNG showed signs of life again, it’s M-Index is a weak -11, and it is also still stuck in bearish territory.

This is the time to stand aside and accept the fact that uncertainty may even kick up a notch, should event in Europe worsen. I am sure they will; the timing of it is just the big unknown.

Disclosure: Holdings in FXF

09-09-2011

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, September 9, 2011

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/09/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-9082011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, September 9, 2011

ANOTHER ETF ROLLER COASTER RIDE

Equity ETFs were handed a sharp loss today amid rumors that Greek might default over the weekend (no surprise here) and that an ECB high level official resigned among rumors of disagreement in regards to the central’s banks decision to buy bonds of over indebted Euro zone countries.

Not helping matters were reports that Germany was preparing to throw an assist to its banks should the next installment of Greece’s bailout be denied, and the country defaults.

It was uncertainty at its finest, and the equity market closed down sharply. The dollar strengthened, bonds rallied and gold closed up, but only slightly. That came as a surprise to me, as I would have expected gold to rally strongly. Maybe that will be the case, once the rumored default actually occurs.

Overshadowed by the major events was Obama’s plan to create jobs. There was nothing chest pounding about the plan itself, but if the subject interests you, consider reading Mish Shedlock’s opinionated piece on the topic.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) dropped with the market and are showing the following positions in regards to their respective long-term trend lines:

Domestic TTI: +0.71% (last week +1.35%)
International TTI: -12.03% (last week -9.42%)

Please note that the Domestic TTI still hovers above its trend line, but we have been in ‘Sell’ mode since 8/9/11. In case you missed it, this indicator has been dancing around the trend line for a month now without giving us any clear indication as to the major trend. That’s why I have held off issuing a new ‘Buy’ in order to avoid a possible whip-saw signal.

If more bad news surface out of Europe over the weekend, the downside will come into play even more, and we may subsequently see the Domestic TTI move back to the bearish side. If it stays there, I will consider putting on the PRPFX hedge again.

Yes, with the benefit of hindsight, I should have held on to the recently liquidated hedge. It just goes to show how difficult the markets currently are, and that minor trends in both directions have the bulls and bears engaged in a yet to be decided tug-of-war.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader George:

Q: Ulli: Was curious why you didn’t apply SH hedge to Portfolio 7 ETF version of Permanent Portfolio whereas you did for portfolio #1 based on PRPFX?  Or did I misunderstand?
A: George: The reason was simply that we have a different view of how portfolios hold up. I did hedge a couple of my ETF equivalent portfolios in my advisor practice, but most of them were with PRPFX.

As I said before, #7 tends to hold up much better in down markets.

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Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, September 9, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/09/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-9082011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, September 9, 2011

ANOTHER ETF ROLLER COASTER RIDE

Equity ETFs were handed a sharp loss today amid rumors that Greek might default over the weekend (no surprise here) and that an ECB high level official resigned among rumors of disagreement in regards to the central’s banks decision to buy bonds of over indebted Euro zone countries.

Not helping matters were reports that Germany was preparing to throw an assist to its banks should the next installment of Greece’s bailout be denied, and the country defaults.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 9/08/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, September 8, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/9/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. I will not issue a new Buy signal until this index has clearly pierced the trend line to the upside and has remained there.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken back above its long term trend line (red) by +1.86%.

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Fed Chief Disappoints – Major Market ETFs Slide

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Yesterday’s rally ran into resistance, as an early bounce turned into an afternoon fade disappointing those that had hoped for more follow through to the upside.

Fed Chief Bernanke’s speech sent the markets lower, as he offered no tangible details as to the assist he could provide in boosting the economy. Wall Street’s high expectations simply turned into disappointment.

Unless, President Obama pulls a rabbit out of his hat during his speech tonight, more disappointment could be a drag on the indexes tomorrow.

The news out of Europe was mixed, but the markets were higher, as the ECB left interest rates unchanged and acknowledged that growth is slipping.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed lower as well and are positioned as follows:

Domestic TTI: +1.86%

International TTI: -9.98%.

Domestically, we are still sitting in no man’s land waiting for a clear trend to emerge in order to make a better determination as to whether the bullish phase will continue or if the bears will finally get the upper hand.

Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com

High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 9/7/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Despite yesterday’s strong rebound, the S&P 500 is still down by -1.64% from last week’s HV Cutline report. This is reflected by the number of ETFs above the trend line, which have dropped to 14 (last week 16), while 74 ETFs hover below it, which means they’re still stuck in bear market territory.

To repeat, the High Volume ETF Cutline report includes all ETFs above and below the cutline (trend line). To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations.

Take a look at the most recent table:

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