ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/18/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 397 ETFs, of which currently 45 of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. Only 9 ETFs have managed to hang on in bullish territory after last week’s drubbing.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 34 above the line and 828 below it out of the 862 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 11/20/2011

Ulli ETF News Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 11/20/2011.

Europe’s lack of progress to solve its debt issues affected the global markets, and the S&P 500 surrendered some 3.8% last week.

Judging by the daily news announcements, things seem to be worsening as no clear plan is being put forth that could be interpreted as a step in the right direction. The band aid and putting-out-the-fire approach prevails, and it’s just a matter of time before reality sets in causing a negative market reaction.

This week, we covered the following:

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Heading into Uncharted Territory: European Breakdown

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

As markets erred to the downside this week, it’s clear that Europe has its back up against the wall. Italian and Spanish bond yields have reached new heights as the contagion appears to be spreading. Not only are all Eurozone nations linked together with debt holdings, but so is the U.S. as well as many Asian countries. Although we didn’t see a huge single day drop in markets in the last several days, there is an uncomfortable amount of risk still lingering.

Political cohesion and smooth governmental transitions are necessary to spearhead economic progress and inspire confidence among investors that European leaders can come to a consensus concerning a bailout strategy. However, getting 17 nations to agree in a timely fashion is a tall order when time is of the essence.

In the meantime, this week’s interview between CNN’s Fareed Zakaria and PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian provides a solid run down of recent Eurozone developments and what to expect going forward:

http://www.pimco.com/_layouts/PIMCO.GLOBAL.UI/BroadcastModal.aspx?broadcastId=/EN/Broadcasts/Pages/Mohamed-El-Erian-on-CNN-11-13-2011.aspx

ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 11/18/2011

Ulli ETF Leaders & Laggards Contact

Here is a quick ETF review of the past week’s Leaders and Laggards from my High Volume ETF Master list:

With Europe pulling down world markets, there weren’t too many places to hide. The S&P 500 lost -3.8% and even the hedge against uncertainty, Gold, dropped -3.62% during the last five trading days.

As you can see from the above Leaders list, only the three top ETFs managed to close up for the week, the rest of the bunch in both columns, were all showing red numbers in the Gain/Loss department.

Treasuries (TLT) were up as a result of flight to safety along with the US dollar (UUP) and the Japanese Yen. On the negative side of the equation were the gold miners and metals along with country ETFs Turkey and China.

Please note that most of the Laggards are deeply stuck in bear market territory as the %M/A column clearly demonstrates. It shows the percentage an ETF is positioned above or below its respective trend line.

From my mat, the situation in the Eurozone has worsened and anything can happen at any time with a Black Swan event not being out of the question. If you have any inclinations of seeking more market exposure, this is the time to heed these words of wisdom: “If in doubt, stay out!”

Disclosure: Holdings in TLT

11-18-2011

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 18, 2011

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11172011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 18, 2011

AN UNEVENTFUL END TO THE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR ETFS

It was quite a flat day for markets to say the least as the S&P 500 dropped only 0.04% despite having its biggest weekly descent in 2 months (-3.8%). Although the U.S. was somewhat calm, European and Asian markets had a more pronounced down day. The dollar remained steady at $1.35/Euro.

While this week hasn’t seen the big price swings witnessed previously in tandem with lower trading volume, the Volatility Index (VIX) is still quite high, finishing at 32 today after a 7.27% dip.

Especially with some ETFs hovering near their trend lines, a sudden upswing or downswing can really change the game day to day when trying to gain equity exposure, as you will see from the latest ETF Cutline reports, which I will post Monday morning.

As if the Italian situation wasn’t already bad enough, Italy’s 5 biggest banks may require $8.2 billion in capital due to the price erosion of Italian bonds. As the debt situation worsens, the restructuring via a Greek-esque bond haircut might be necessary. And as PIMCO’s Bill Gross states, the transmission of Eurozone contagion to the U.S. is very real if this pattern continues.

In relation to Greece, next week will be interesting as the country’s creditors will soon decide whether or not Greece will receive its next bailout package depending on the amount of political progress.

The Greek finance minister suggested that the budget deficit would shrink from a current 9% of GDP to 5.4% of GDP in 2012. But, given the level of public discontent regarding austerity measures, this budget cut might just be wishful thinking especially as Greece’s unemployment continues to rise.

All the while, there is growing division between Eurozone nations as to the extent that the ECB should intervene in bond markets. As Italy and Spain bond yields have skyrocketed, some Euro leaders are calling for the ECB to expand its responsibilities although President Draghi has advocated that the ECB not overstep its bounds by trying to help bail out distressed countries.

The Domestic TTI (Trend Tracking Index) is positive at the moment (+1.74%), so we will keep some domestic equity exposure. However, the international picture remains bleak as the International TTI is -9.11% below its trend line, so we’ll be staying out of international ETFs for the foreseeable future.

Despite the lack of major movements this week, Europe looks to be unraveling as the confluence of political disagreements and mounting financial struggles appears to be too much. I’m sticking to my bond ETFs and cash with a minimal equity ETF allocation until there’s a clear sign of a reversal in Europe’s fortunes.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Randy:

Q: Ulli: Thanks for your always helpful and insightful daily commentary.

You mention often about a cash and bond ETF mix. Do you recommend specific bond funds that specialize in certain segments such as junk bonds, TIPS, emerging markets etc. or are you referring to just a basic fund such as LQD or BND.

I’m not sure when you mention bonds what area you are referring to.

A: Randy: I use most of the ones you mentioned, in particular BND, TLH and some TIP. For those, I use a 5% trailing sell stop point.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 18, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11172011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 18, 2011

AN UNEVENTFUL END TO THE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR ETFS

It was quite a flat day for markets to say the least as the S&P 500 dropped only 0.04% despite having its biggest weekly descent in 2 months (-3.8%). Although the U.S. was somewhat calm, European and Asian markets had a more pronounced down day. The dollar remained steady at $1.35/Euro.

While this week hasn’t seen the big price swings witnessed previously in tandem with lower trading volume, the Volatility Index (VIX) is still quite high, finishing at 32 today after a 7.27% dip.

Especially with some ETFs hovering near their trend lines, a sudden upswing or downswing can really change the game day to day when trying to gain equity exposure, as you will see from the latest ETF Cutline reports, which I will post Monday morning.

As if the Italian situation wasn’t already bad enough, Italy’s 5 biggest banks may require $8.2 billion in capital due to the price erosion of Italian bonds. As the debt situation worsens, the restructuring via a Greek-esque bond haircut might be necessary. And as PIMCO’s Bill Gross states, the transmission of Eurozone contagion to the U.S. is very real if this pattern continues.

Read More