Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/23/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, November 23, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities is in effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +0.10%. Tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Domestic TTI Correction

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

The Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) is currently hovering above its long-term trend line by only a scant +0.10% and not +0.43% as I posted in yesterday’s market commentary.

When reviewing the numbers, I noticed that one of the components had not been updated due to closing price unavailability.

Any further market pullback will likely push this indicator below the line and generate a Sell signal for all Domestic Equity mutual funds and ETFs.

I will keep you updated.

Eurozone Turbulence Won’t Stop Battering Equity ETFs Anytime Soon

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

It’s been a tough week for equity ETFs so far as the situation in European begins to nosedive. The S&P 500 dropped 2.21% while European and Asian indices also took a hit. And for the third straight day, investors headed for U.S. government securities as the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to yield 1.88%.

Meanwhile, the dollar appreciated against the Euro to finish at $1.33/Euro. The Volatility Index also edged up 6.29% today as risk isn’t going away anytime soon. European fears have certainly risen considerably in the past week amidst uncertain governmental changes.

An indication that investor sentiment is falling to the wayside, Germany’s auction for 10-year bonds proved shambolic. Despite the fact that Germany is one of the fiscally responsible nations that others look to for financial assistance, it was only able to sell 65% of its bonds today. If Germany, the de facto Eurozone leader, is seen as risky, we better buckle up for a very bumpy ride. The contagion is spreading quickly, and no one is immune.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 11/22/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Since last week’s report, the S&P 500 took a pounding at the rate of -5.56%, and our portfolios retreated as well, but to far lesser degree due to only limited equity exposure.

Monday’s drop triggered our 7% trailing sell stop for VTI, and the positions were liquidated on Tuesday morning. All ETF model portfolios with VTI holdings were affected. Weakness in the equity markets is getting worse, which is confirmed by our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs).

This is most apparent by our Domestic TTI, which has come off its high and remains in bullish territory by only a meager +0.96%. On the international side, things are much worse, as our International TTI has sunk further into bearish territory by -11.07%.

Take a look at the latest update:

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No Major ETF Movements, But Still a Negative Outlook

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Markets finished moderately to the downside as the S&P 500 finished down 0.41% in a less volatile trading session. The dollar remained steady at $1.35/Euro, while commodities didn’t fluctuate much. Also, the VIX dropped 2.86% to 31.97.

However, the closing numbers don’t do justice to intra-day volatility. Our trailing sell stop in VTI was triggered after Monday’s market tumble, and this holding was liquidated this morning as the major indexes headed further south. You can see the details in my latest ETF model portfolio update, which will be posted tomorrow morning.

Once again, the 10-year Treasury dipped considerably, falling to a yield of 1.94%. While we haven’t seen an en masse flight to safety yet, there are signs that developed European and Asian investors as well as emerging markets investors will flock to U.S. Treasures if Europe goes to down.

Most likely influenced by the capital inadequacy of some major European banks and U.S. bank exposure to European debt, the Federal Reserve is set to conduct its 4th round of stress tests in 2012. Bernanke has made it clear that a contagion emanating from Europe could cause a deep capital shortfall if all goes wrong.

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Perhaps the Start of a Rough Week for Equity ETFs

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

The week started off rocky as European fears set in, pulling the S&P 500 down 1.86%. Europe indices took an even harder hit with the DAX down 3.35% and the CAC 40 dipping 3.41%. In government bonds, the 10-year Treasury fell 2.49% to 1.96 as investors sought safety. Nevertheless, the dollar was unchanged versus the Euro, staying at $1.35/Euro.

Despite weakness in equities, gold had a rough day as well, falling 2.39% to drop below 1,700. Although the VIX only rose 2.84% today, there is a lot of risk still on the table. An indication of overseas tension, foreign banks have more than doubled their deposits at the Federal Reserve from $350 billion to $710 billion since late last year. While the U.S. has its fair share of troubles, it’s proving to be a relatively safe haven compared to Europe or Asia.

Following European ineptitude, the U.S. Super”dud”committee failed to agree on a deal to reduce the budget deficit. As if there wasn’t enough global political turmoil, Congress has added insult to injury. Looks like markets are going to be quite uneasy over the next few days.

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