Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/17/2011

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, November 17, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities is in effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken back above its long term trend line (red) by +2.06%.

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Equity ETFs Feel The Pressure With Europe on Thin Ice

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

The fear of Eurozone frailty was priced into markets today as equities took a hit globally. The S&P 500 fell 1.68% while other global indices also took a hit. After a couple big days for commodities, gold and oil dipped down 3.00% and 3.68%, respectively. Also, the dollar stuck at $1.35/Euro.

Furthermore, the VIX remained relatively calm, rising only 2.98% but still above the 30 mark. While Greece made some strides with a vote of confidence that may momentarily temper nerves, the negative developments in Italy and Spain keep injecting more risk into global markets.

Although investors aren’t in full fledged flight to safety mode, the U.S. 10-year Treasury rate dropped to 1.94%, indicating the heightened risk in Europe that could compel international developed and emerging markets to find refuge in the U.S. We’ve been sticking with bond ETFs, and days like today certainly pay off when the market mood sours.

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Finally a Jolt for Equity ETFs – Is This The Start of a Market Slide?

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

We’re back on the downside today as fears over Italy’s succession plan seemed to set in. The S&P 500 slipped 1.66%. Interestingly, European equities were relatively flat today despite the uncertainty. In commodities, oil had another big day as it shot up 2.40% to 101.75. After a few days of minimal movement, the VIX took a moderate jump, rising 7.34% to 33.51.

There’s still plenty of risk on the table that makes me wary of whether last month’s equity gains will hold by the end of this month. As the fate of Italy and Greece are still up in the air, increasing equity exposure isn’t exactly the best idea in the world at the moment.

While Italy’s 10-year yield dropped today, it was largely due to the ECB coming to the rescue to buy up their bonds to the discontent of some Eurozone members who want the ECB to be hands off in the bailout process. This semi-artificial demand so to speak masks the negative outlook on Italian debt, which isn’t under control.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 11/15/2011

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With the S&P 500 having lost some 1.4% since last Wednesday’s update, our portfolios slipped as well, but to a minor degree, due to the less than 100% invested positions, and with the bond holdings smoothing out the ride.

Please note that in portfolio #5, I have added DVY back in, since it has been consistently hovering above its long-term trend line. My latest High Volume Cutline report showed its location in the +9 position.

Take a look at the latest update:

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ETFs Stay Relatively Calm, But That May Change Very Soon

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Markets appeared to be in the gray zone today, finishing modestly on the upside after an initial dip. The S&P 500 went up 0.48% while European indices such as the DAX and CAC 40 hit some road bumps, dropping 0.87% and 1.92%, respectively. Also, Asian equity markets finished on the downside.

Despite recent hyperactivity in the VIX, it remained essentially flat today. While the last two days have been pretty quiet with little volatility, we are still above the 30 level, keeping us in risk on mode. And on the commodities front, oil nearly hit the psychological barrier of $100, ending at $99.36, which was its highest since July.

Investors might be waiting for Italy to complete its transition to the new government headed by Monti, but it doesn’t look too rosy as Monti is experiencing some friction in trying to form a Cabinet.

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Are Eurozone Fears Starting to Become a Reality for ETFs?

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Markets took a dip today given continued Eurozone uncertainty and less than stellar data. The S&P 500 retreated 0.95% while other major indices across the global echoed a similar negative sentiment.

The dollar appreciated against the Euro to $1.36/Euro while commodities had a mild drop. Volatility slightly edged up 3.63%, but overall market volume was quite low for the day, so we’ll have to see how the risk picture transpires over the course of the week.

Today’s telling figure was a 2% reduction in Eurozone industrial production for the month of September. This was the biggest drop in nearly 2 years ago, an indication that Europe’s real economy outside of debt issues is hitting a major roadblock. The compounding of economic weakness and financial breakdown could accelerate the likelihood of a worldwide recession.

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