ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, September 2, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/09/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-9012011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, September 2, 2011

LOUSY JOBS REPORTS CLOBBERS MAJOR ETF INDEXES

While the change from last Friday’s close was only minor, it does not tell the entire story. A sharp rebound early in the week was completely wiped out as selling ahead of Friday’s jobs report indicated nervousness.

Rightfully so, as the shocking jobs report came out indicating that there was zero growth in August, while the unemployment rate remained at 9.1%. The major indexes dropped like a rock at the opening and never recovered.

Gold rallied over 3% on the day, while interest rates dropped, and our core holding PRPFX bucked the trend by gaining +0.22%. It was a good day to be hedged, as the short component SH gained +2.59% putting our hedge into the positive by +1.15%, as the matrix shows:

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 9/01/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, September 1, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL — since 8/9/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. I will not issue a new Buy signal until this index has clearly pierced the trend line to the upside and has remained there for a few trading days.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken back above its long term trend line (red) by +2.17%.

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Uncertainty Ahead Of Jobs Report Pulls Equity ETFs Lower

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

The major market ETFs did an about face today as reports showed that economic activity is more or less entrenched in a sideways pattern. Additionally, caution remained ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, which will be released prior to the market opening.

The big report of the day, the ISM manufacturing index, showed that manufacturing is still growing, but at rate that could be considered stall speed. Other economic data were not horrible, but sure don’t sound too encouraging with overall sentiment being one of concern.

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High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 8/31/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Since the last ETF Cutline report a week ago, the S&P 500 has rebound by +3.48%, but the change in momentum has not been enough to generate any new ETF prospects suitable as current investment material. Only 16 ETFs hover above the line in bullish territory, while 72 remain below it and on the bearish side of the equation.

To repeat, the High Volume ETF Cutline report includes all ETFs above and below the cutline (trend line). To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations.

Take a look at the most recent table:

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Damage Control For ETFs

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

The major index ETFs managed some damage control over the past week to reduce the losses sustained in the month of August to -5.65% for the S&P 500, which was its worst month since May 2010.

It could have been a lot worse, as fears that the economy was headed back into a recession, along with worries about the European debt crises, occupied traders around the world all month.

Optimism that the Fed will eventually lend assist again pulled the major market ETFs out of the doldrums over the past 7 trading days. With light volume and a host of crucial economic reports still on the agenda for this week, it remains to be seen whether this rebound actually has legs or turns into another head fake.

The big 4 reports (weekly jobless claims, productivity gains, ISM manufacturing index and motor vehicle sales), all due out tomorrow, will set the tone at least for one day until Friday’s all important jobs report will be published.

Here’s where the jobs numbers can get downright perverse.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 8/30/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Since my last ETF Model Portfolio Report, the S&P 500 managed to gain some +4.39%, while most of our portfolios grew to a lesser degree. The main reason is that we’ve been stopped out of all aggressive positions, so our upside is currently limited.

That’s okay, because YTD our portfolios have shown far more stability than the index, and they all remain on the plus side of the gain/loss column. Looking at the global economic landscape, the bear market scenario still looms large.

Our newly added #7 portfolio, the ETF equivalent of PRPFX, has been the star performer, while displaying amazing consistency and resilience.

Take a look at this week’s report:

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