Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 7/7/2011

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 7, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +4.61%.

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Market commentary/High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 7/6/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Upward market momentum and euphoria continued into last weekend causing several ETFs to move above the +20 HV Cutline listings and off the table. If you intend to follow those ETFs that are no longer listed, you now have to consult the weekly StatSheet (updated every Thursday), specifically the ETF Master List.

To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 

While the markets have been meandering around the unchanged line this week, Gold ETFs have been shining brightly, which is clearly a sign that all is not well in terms of global balances along with the ongoing debt circus.

Some of this slowdown was evident, as some of the major ETFs moved only moderately:

IOO (World Stock) from +4 to +20

IEV (S&P Europe 350) from +6 to +15

EFA (Foreign Large Blend) from +4 to +13

EEB (Diversified Emerging Mkts) from -13 to +7

And remaining in the basement was BRF (Brazil Small Cap), which jumped from -15 to -8 along with ILF (Latin America), which improved from -18 to -6.

Take a look at the table:

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6 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/5/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios, Uncategorized Contact

The market’s sharp rise last week affected all our ETF Model Portfolios in a positive way. While they did not move up as fast as the S&P 500 did, they also did not lose ground as quickly, when the markets declined 7 out of 8 weeks.

That has been my theme all along. When the major indexes were on a tear earlier this year, the S&P 500 raced ahead in terms of YTD performance by over 3% compared to some of our models. However, during the recent market decline, it trailed by over 3%; now it has again pulled ahead by a slight margin. 

Unless, you are a financial rollercoaster lover, you’re better off keeping a steady hand when it comes to the fluctuations of your portfolio – at least that is my preference.

Take a look at the changes of the past week:

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Gold ETFs Shine

Ulli Market Commentary, Uncategorized Contact

With the stock market mired in a bit of uncertainty, after last week’s run, it was the gold ETFs who brightened the day.

As the chart shows (courtesy of MarketWatch.com), the major market ETFs lacked direction and essentially went nowhere. Follow through buying from last week was non-existent as exuberance seemed to wane.

None of today’s news reports supported the upside as Moody’s cut Portugal’s debt rating to junk. The U.S. debt ceiling remained in the foreground along with new concerns about the health of China’s banking system. A worse than expected report on factory orders for May increased the sense of uncertainty.

That turned out to be the driver to push the precious metals higher, as gold reclaimed its psychologically important $1,500 level.

As I mentioned last Friday, I had to estimate the numbers for the Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs), as some data were not available. Here are the updated numbers as of today:

Domestic TTI: +3.96%

International TTI: +2.01%

I am still giving the International TTI a little wiggle room before issuing a new ‘Buy’ for that area. The reason is obvious in that we had just received a ‘Sell’ the middle of June, and I am trying to avoid a whip-saw signal.

Stay tuned.

Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 7/1/2011

Ulli Mutual Funds On The Cutline Contact

Just like in yesterday’s ETF Cutline report, the rally of the past 5 days pushed many mutual funds out of negative territory, below the cutline, right through the first +20 listings above the cutline.

If you track any mutual funds, you know need to consult the weekly StatSheet for the exact location of those you are interested in. Consult the appropriate sections.

During the sharp rebound, some momentum figures have clearly improved, but they are still inconsistent at best. Additionally, the DrawDown numbers (DD% column) have not yet risen enough to wipe out the red figures, which means that in many cases we are still closer to a sell signal than reaching new highs.

Take a look:

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated through 7/1/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Closing the month of June with a bang and stepping into July with equal force, the major market ETFs have been on a tear for five days straight. How much of that momentum can be maintained is everyone’s guess.

The ETFs under discussion last week (TMW, VTI, VUG) rallied strongly and ended up above the listed +20 positions, so they are no longer visible on this report. If you care to track any of these, you now need to consult the Master ETF list. This will be necessary, whenever an ETF you follow has moved off the cutline table.

You can find the latest Master ETF list in last Friday’s StatSheet (section 3).

Take a look at the table:

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