Reality Finally Sets In For Major Market ETFs

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

All the Christmas goodies have seemed to wear off as attention once again turned to the dire state of the global economy. The S&P 500 had a decent sized drop of 1.24% while European and Asian indices also headed south.

The Euro went to a new 11-month low against the dollar, falling to $1.29/Euro. Commodities also took a hit as oil dipped below $100 and gold crossed under the $1,600 mark.

Just when it looked like risk was withering away, the 10-year Treasury yield sank, ending at 1.91%. Meanwhile, the Volatility Index rose 7.30%, indicating that more volatility might be headed our way. It looks like negative 2012 expectations are finally setting in.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 12/27/2011

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

This is the last ETF Model Portfolio report for 2011. I will rebalance as necessary effective 12/30/11 and will determine the exact allocation next weekend.

While the past week sported an upswing in the markets, it barely got the S&P 500 to the breakeven point for the ear. In the end, 2011 did nothing to help your portfolios grow as continued global uncertainties unleashed a wildly swinging market, which ended up returning to the unchanged line.

Our sell stops were only of limited value, as a sharp correction did not occur even though it appeared to be a distinct possibility on several occasions. Of course, Europe’s expert can kickers managed to avoid disaster by coming up with more ingenious ways to delay the inevitable.

Even though I will rebalance the ETF Model Portfolios, I do not recommend starting the year 2012 with fully invested positions as none of what ails Europe has been resolved and may come back to haunt the markets.

On the other hand, the major indexes may hang their hat on the fact that domestically we’re better off right now than the rest of the world with the result that upward momentum may continue. Personally, I believe it’s a better call to only conservatively participate in any upward swings as the ongoing downside risks should not be underestimated.

Take a look at the latest update:

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Post-Xmas Coma Leads To ETF Inactivity

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

In a relatively low volume day, market action was more or less at a minimum. The S&P 500 was essentially flat, bumping up a smidge of 0.01%. The Euro against the dollar is $1.31/Euro and the 10-year Treasury dropped to 2.01%. In commodities, gold is still off its high sitting just above $1,600 while oil broke above $100.

A sign of fear in the European banking system, banks deposited over $535 billion with the ECB, a record amount. Despite efforts by the ECB to boost liquidity and spur lending, many financial institutions still view lending as much riskier than camping their money with the ECB.

Not only will this hurt the credit market, but businesses of all sizes will feel the hurt as well. Although Europe is reaching deep into its toolbox, finding the right tool to solve its financial woes is becoming increasingly difficult.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 12/23/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 107 (last week 48) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. Only 16 ETFs (last week 8 ) have managed to hang on in bullish territory after the recent volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 176 (last week 37) above the line and 685 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 12/25/2011

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 12/25/2011.

The markets catapulted higher, although on very low volume, which tends to distort the true direction, but it gave the impression that a Santa Claus rally had actually materialized, which brought the S&P 500 back to the breakeven point for the year.

With most traders gone on vacation, there is no telling what next week may bring and whether this is the start of new bullish momentum, or just a flash in the pan that can evaporate as soon as Wall Street’s heavyweights return on the first trading day of the year.

Much will depend on developments in Europe. Any lack of bad news may give the domestic indexes a run to the 1,300 level as most domestic economic news has been better than elsewhere.

This week, we covered the following:

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Sunday Musings: Lowering Risk Exposure Amidst Great Uncertainty

Ulli Market Review Contact

As we turn a corner into a new year, great uncertainty still looms in global markets. Europe lacks the financial firepower to overcome the debt crisis at the moment and political resolve is quite thin. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is prone to contagion.

In this week’s video, I am highlighting Michael Platt, a hedge fund manager who is solely sticking to short-term U.S. Treasuries and German bonds. As argued by Platt, and in line with my views, Europe still faces very large hurdles to restore economic growth and reduce its debt load, prompting a heavily fixed income weighted allocation with lower risk exposure.

While I wouldn’t necessarily be 100% on the sidelines in fixed income since there are still some select equity ETF opportunities, the overall message is right on. Europe’s debt metrics are atrocious and illiquidity in the European banking system is of great concern, with many banks inching toward insolvency. Plus, borrowing costs are still high in Spain and Italy with other Eurozone members at risk of losing their investment grade status.

Although I don’t want to be a pessimist, markets will continue to experience significant headwinds in 2012. Let’s enjoy the holidays while we can before reality sets in again.