[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
With the bond market closed and no Fed officials grabbing the microphone, stocks enjoyed a rare day of relative peace and quiet.
The Nasdaq surged 1.8%, fueled by a sharp rebound in Nvidia and a blockbuster 25% jump in CoreWeave after better-than-expected results and higher guidance.
The broader tone was unmistakably risk-on. Strong demand surrounding the AI ecosystem, including enthusiasm around Anthropic’s IPO, helped lift sentiment and suggested traders may still be unwinding last week’s overly pessimistic selloff.
Interestingly, while the Mega Caps participated, the “Magnificent 7” continued to trail the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500, a healthy sign for market breadth.
Elsewhere, the dollar remained on a tear, delivering its strongest two-day run since June and knocking gold below the $4,000 level.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, finally got the memo from tech stocks and climbed back above $74,000.
For one day at least, the market traded as if inflation, rate hikes, and bond yields had taken a vacation. The real question is: will that optimistic mood survive when the bond market clocks back in tomorrow?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
With the bond market taking the day off, stocks seemed relieved to spend 24 hours without hanging on every interest-rate headline. Sometimes no news really is good news.
The major indexes put together a strong session, led by the Nasdaq, with the S&P 500 right on its heels.
Metals were a mixed bag, as silver was the only one that really joined the party. Meanwhile, our TTIs stayed in sync with the broader market and delivered yet another winning session.
Not a bad day at all. It turns out the market can behave itself once in a while when the bond market isn’t in the room asking difficult questions.
This is how we closed 11/11/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.23% above its M/A (prior close +6.44%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.40% above its M/A (prior close +3.91%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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