[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks stumbled out of the gate today as traders sorted through the first wave of big-bank earnings and a sharp overnight selloff in South Korea that weighed on memory and semiconductor names.
The banks themselves didn’t disappoint so much as they ran into a buzzsaw of high expectations.
JPMorgan initially traded lower after missing forecasts but bounced back after raising its 2026 net interest income outlook.
Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs delivered mixed reactions as investors focused less on what was reported and more on what comes next. With analysts looking for nearly 30% year-over-year earnings growth from the S&P 500, the hurdle-rate this season remains awfully high.
Elsewhere, memory stocks felt pressure after South Korea’s Kospi dropped 5.5% amid valuation concerns and rising competition from China.
Oil moved higher on renewed geopolitical tensions, while stronger-than-expected home sales and mixed Fed commentary nudged rate-hike odds higher ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report.
Bonds, gold, and the dollar all churned around, while Bitcoinv managed to survive another roller-coaster ride with a modest gain.
One strategist noted that today’s semiconductor landscape bears an uncomfortable resemblance to the late stages of the dot-com boom.
Is that a warning sign, or just another reminder that every market cycle eventually finds a way to rhyme?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Even though the major indexes opened on the back foot, there wasn’t much conviction from either side.
By the closing bell, it was clear the buyers and sellers had apparently agreed to take the day off.
The metals spent the session wandering without a map, and our TTIs weren’t any more adventurous, finishing right where they started.
Sometimes the market delivers fireworks, and sometimes it delivers a screensaver. Today was more the latter.
This is how we closed 10/13/2026:
Domestic TTI: +3.70% above its M/A (prior close +3.65%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +2.92% above its M/A (prior close +2.89%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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