[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
The Nasdaq sailed to another record high, even as Treasury yields pushed higher, with the 10-year climbing to 5.33%.
The ISM Services reading of 54.9% landed roughly where expected, keeping the economic-growth story intact while traders now look ahead to Wednesday’s Fed minutes for clues on the rate outlook.
But beneath the headline gains, things were far less impressive. Market breadth weakened again, marking the 15th straight session with more new lows than new highs, while the Mag 7 continued to do much of the heavy lifting.
In other words, the indexes are partying, but the guest list remains awfully short.
Elsewhere, the dollar faded from its early highs, gold slipped back toward Friday’s lows, Bitcoin whipsawed around $85,500, and oil moved lower.
So, the market remains caught between two competing narratives: solid growth and earnings optimism on one side, and higher yields and tighter financial conditions on the other.
Can earnings strength keep overpowering rising bond yields, or will the bond market eventually spoil the party?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Markets came out of the gate strong, and the bulls kept a firm grip on the wheel throughout the session. Gold mostly trod water, while silver and copper joined the equity rally and moved higher.
Our TTIs caught the bullish bug as well, both finishing in the green, with the Domestic TTI holding a slight edge.
For now, momentum remains firmly on the bulls’ side, and they certainly aren’t showing much interest in giving up the steering wheel.
This is how we closed 10/05/2026:
Domestic TTI: +2.87% above its M/A (prior close +2.19%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +2.73% above its M/A (prior close +2.24%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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