[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
The bears stayed in control today as investors headed into tomorrow’s Fed decision with one eye on interest rates and the other on the exits.
The big story wasn’t stocks, though, it was bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly pushed above 5%, a level we haven’t seen since 2007, reminding everyone that “higher for longer” is more than just a catchy phrase.
AI-related stocks helped cushion some of the damage after yesterday’s weakness, but rising yields and climbing oil prices continue to make life difficult for equities.
Brent crude pushed above $108, adding another layer of inflation concern just as the Fed prepares to make its next move.
Elsewhere, gold held its ground despite a stronger dollar, while Bitcoin gave back yesterday’s gains after the CLARITY Act stumbled by a single vote.
For now, earnings and economic resilience are still providing support, but if yields remain above 5%, history suggests stocks may face a stiffer headwind.
Will tomorrow’s Fed decision calm nerves or give the bears another reason to celebrate?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Another tough day for the bulls, with red dominating the screens as stocks struggled to find their footing and logged yet another down session.
The good news? The metals complex stepped up as a bit of a portfolio shock absorber, with silver leading the charge and finishing solidly in the green.
Our TTIs moved lower alongside equities, which isn’t surprising given the market’s cautious tone, but both indicators remain comfortably on the right side of their bullish trend lines.
For now, the trend is still our friend, even if it’s taking the scenic route. The bears may be making plenty of noise, but they haven’t taken control of the bigger picture just yet.
This is how we closed 09/15/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.66% above its M/A (prior close +5.17%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.93% above its M/A (prior close +5.24%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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