[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Friday’s relief rally didn’t make it through the weekend. Stocks opened on their back foot and spent most of the day underwater as investors wrestled with three things that mattered: AI uncertainty, surging oil prices, and another bout of bond market nerves.
The AI space took a hit after renewed calls for a slower pace of development raised fresh questions about the timing and appetite for future AI IPOs. At the same time, oil jumped above $103 a barrel after Saudi Arabia shut down a key pipeline, which is never the kind of headline inflation fighters like to read over their morning coffee.
Adding to the unease, bond yields spiked ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, briefly pushing the 10-year above 5% before calming down late in the session. Stocks recovered from their worst levels but still finished in the red, while a stronger dollar took some shine off gold.
One notable exception was bitcoin, which ignored both the stronger dollar and the gloomy mood on Wall Street, rallying on hopes tied to the CLARITY Act. Leave it to crypto to show up wearing a Hawaiian shirt at a black-tie event.
With the Fed decision due Wednesday, uncertainty remains the market’s favorite asset class. The question now is: will the Fed calm investors’ nerves, or give them one more thing to worry about?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The market gave up some ground today as higher oil prices and rising bond yields continued to lean on investors. It was another reminder that Wall Street rarely enjoys paying more for energy and money at the same time.
Metals joined the retreat, but bitcoin decided to ignore the memo, climbing more than 2% and showing its usual flair for marching to its own drummer.
Our TTIs sent mixed signals. The domestic index essentially treaded water, suggesting traders are still waiting for a clearer catalyst.
Internationally, however, the picture was less encouraging, with the trend pointing lower.
This is how we closed 09/14/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.17% above its M/A (prior close +5.10%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +5.24% above its M/A (prior close +5.75%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli