[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
The market spent the final trading day of August looking over its shoulder as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran rattled investors.
Stocks moved lower, oil jumped about 3%, and rising long-term Treasury yields added another headwind for equities. Sometimes the market worries about one thing at a time. Today it generously chose two.
That said, it’s worth keeping the bigger picture in mind. Despite August’s geopolitical flare-ups, inflation concerns, and bond market volatility, stocks still finished the month in positive territory, led by technology shares.
The Dow scored a fifth straight monthly gain, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their first monthly advances since May.
What really stood out this month wasn’t just stocks. Gold climbed roughly 10%, silver surged nearly 19%, and Bitcoin delivered its strongest monthly performance since late 2024 by gaining 25%.
With fiscal deficits remaining large, central banks continuing to accumulate gold, and the dollar trending weaker, the case for the “debasement trade” remains very much alive.
So, while today’s headlines focused on missiles and market nerves, is the bigger story still the steady migration toward hard assets and stores of value?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
As the month wrapped up, the market got a case of the jitters. Fresh saber-rattling between the U.S. and Iran was enough to send the major indexes lower and remind traders geopolitics still knows how to crash the party.
In commodities, it was mostly a sleepy session. The metals complex largely marked time, with copper being the one bright spot and posting a respectable gain while its peers seemed content to hit the snooze button.
Our TTIs stayed in step with the market’s cautious tone, both easing modestly and confirming bearish momentum. The silver lining? They remain essentially unchanged from last month’s close, suggesting the bears are growling, but not quite charging.
This is how we closed 08/31/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.00% above its M/A (prior close +8.67%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.97% above its M/A (prior close +7.06%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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