[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks started the day with a spring in their step but lost a little steam as traders digested Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.
The key takeaway? Inflation may be behaving better lately, but the Fed isn’t ready to declare victory just yet.
That recalibrated expectations in a hurry. Odds of a September rate hike jumped, short-term Treasury yields moved higher, and the dollar found its footing. Meanwhile, risk assets got a bit wobbly.
Gold took it on the chin, dropping more than 3%, while Bitcoin delivered its usual roller-coaster performance, briefly topping $81,000 before sliding back toward $77,000.
The broader lesson from today is pretty simple: when real yields and the dollar rise together, even favorite inflation hedges like gold and crypto can have a tough day at the office.
In my view, the long-term case for both is still intact, but today’s action was a reminder that markets rarely move in a straight line. After all, if investing were easy, everyone at the coffee shop would be a billionaire.
So, was today’s pullback just a reality check, or the market’s way of telling us higher rates may be sticking around longer than traders would like?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The market tried to stage an early rally today, but that enthusiasm faded after Fed Governor Warsh struck a more hawkish tone than traders were hoping for.
Stocks drifted into the red, joined by precious metals and even Bitcoin, which apparently didn’t get the memo about staying resilient.
Our TTIs edged slightly lower on both the day and the week, but let’s not make a mountain out of a molehill. The bigger picture remains intact, with both indicators still firmly planted in bullish territory.
Sometimes markets need to catch their breath before moving higher, and today looked a lot more like a pause than a change in direction.
This is how we closed 08/28/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.67% above its M/A (prior close +9.48%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.06% above its M/A (prior close +7.43%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli