ETF Tracker StatSheet
You can view the latest version here.
GOLD GLITTERS, BITCOIN ROARS, AND JACKSON HOLE AWAITS
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks managed to bounce today as traders looked for bargains after this week’s sharp sell-off, which was fueled largely by rising Treasury yields.
Financial stocks helped lead the recovery, while crypto-related names caught a strong tailwind as bitcoin marched toward a weekly gain of more than 20%.
The bond market remains the main story. Long-term Treasury yields continued climbing as investors wrestled with inflation concerns tied to higher oil prices.
The Treasury’s recent buyback program may have changed the mix of debt in investors’ hands, but it did little to address the bigger issue: the sheer amount of government debt the market still needs to absorb.
The pressure wasn’t limited to U.S. markets. Global stocks also struggled this week, while oil prices continued drifting higher amid Gulf supply concerns and ongoing stress in diesel and refining markets.
Even with today’s rebound, the major indexes couldn’t fully escape the week’s damage. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their first weekly declines since late July, while the Dow logged its weakest week since March.
Meanwhile, the dollar slipped as yields rose, giving precious metals another reason to shine. Gold blasted through the $4,600 level, while silver stole the show with a gain of more than 7% for the week.
But the undisputed star of the week was bitcoin. The digital heavyweight surged more than 20%, briefly flirting with $80,000 as ETF inflows accelerated and short sellers were squeezed harder than a tube of toothpaste at the end of the month.
Now all eyes turn to Jackson Hole next week. Will investors remain in a risk-off mood, or can Fed Chair Warsh deliver the reassurance needed to get bullish spirits back on track?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Markets finally found their footing today, with buyers stepping back in and nudging the major indexes into positive territory.
That said, one good day wasn’t enough to erase the week’s earlier bruises, so the major averages still finished the week in the red.
The real action was in hard assets. Metals were shining brightly, and bitcoin was absolutely stealing the spotlight. Silver led the charge, reminding everyone that sometimes the “poor man’s gold” likes to show off.
As for our TTIs, they participated in today’s rebound and moved higher, though they gave back a little ground over the course of the week.
Overall, a decent Friday finish, but not quite enough to turn the week’s report card from a B-minus into an A.
This is how we closed 08/21/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.59% above its M/A (prior close +9.43%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.90% above its M/A (prior close +7.71%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli